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	<title>MMA Ranking Talk &#187; ufc</title>
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		<title>Strikeforce Bought by Zuffa</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2011/strikeforce-bought-by-zuffa/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2011/strikeforce-bought-by-zuffa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Mar 2011 01:59:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strikeforce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=137</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Obviously a lot of chatter is going on about the announcement that Zuffa has purchased Strikeforce. I think this leads to a lot of interesting talking points, but as usual I think there are some things getting ignored/mis-stated/etc. 1) *ZUFFA* purchased Strikeforce The first thing that needs to be clarified is that the UFC&#8217;s parent [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obviously a lot of chatter is going on about the announcement that Zuffa has purchased Strikeforce.  I think this leads to a lot of interesting talking points, but as usual I think there are some things getting ignored/mis-stated/etc.</p>
<p><span id="more-137"></span></p>
<h2>1) *ZUFFA* purchased Strikeforce</h2>
<p>The first thing that needs to be clarified is that the UFC&#8217;s parent company purchased Strikeforce.  The &#8220;UFC&#8221; did *NOT* purchase &#8220;Strikeforce&#8221;.</p>
<p>Tons of the chatter I see continues to ignore this key detail.  There are a lot of parent companies out there that own multiple companies that operate within the same industry.</p>
<p>Look at Wendy&#8217;s and Arby&#8217;s.  Look at Yum! foods that has Pizza hut and Taco Bell and KFC.  Activision/Blizzard, etc.</p>
<p>Certainly it&#8217;s possible we&#8217;ll see a WEC style merger at some point.  However, that is not what we currently have going on.</p>
<p>Remember wayyyy back when &#8220;UFC&#8221; bought &#8220;Pride&#8221;?  Remember how Dana kept talking about how he tried to get deals going, and then explained that at least he got the pride library and that was still valuable to him.  </p>
<p>MMA is a global sport with incredible growth potential and Zuffa clearly has a lot of resources.  It will be interesting to see what they think provides the most value.</p>
<h2>2) What is the &#8220;UFC&#8221;?</h2>
<p>This might sound silly, but a lot of people don&#8217;t realize that the UFC is an MMA organization and is primarily a brand.</p>
<h3>What the UFC isn&#8217;t</h3>
<p>Fighters &#8211; The fighters can go anywhere and fight.  Whether they come from Strikeforce, go to Strikeforce, head to Bellator or whatever else.</p>
<p>Rules &#8211; The rules are basically state mandated with minimal variations.</p>
<p>Refs/Judges &#8211; State certified in most cases.</p>
<p>Arena &#8211; The &#8220;octagon&#8221; is hardly unique at this point and actually has a couple current variations as I recall.</p>
<h3>What the UFC is!</h3>
<p>So what does that leave us?</p>
<p>Well, the UFC is a production.  The color scheme, the intros, the commentators, that&#8217;s all &#8220;UFC&#8221; through and through.</p>
<p>You know what else the UFC is?  It&#8217;s a business.  The fighters it signs, the events it schedules, the business plan it follows.  Which leads us too&#8230;</p>
<h2>3) The &#8220;UFC&#8221; Model</h2>
<p>Probably the biggest fear I have regarding Zuffa purchasing Strikeforce is if we&#8217;ll see shifts in Strikeforce&#8217;s business model.</p>
<h3>Exclusive Contracts</h3>
<p>Probably one of the biggest things you see with UFC fighters is they are much more restricted in what they can do.  With Strikeforce you saw fighters from other organizations, you saw fighters compete in K-1 and other sports.</p>
<p>There is a very fundamental difference between what a Strikeforce fighter could previously do and what many UFC fighters have been allowed to do.</p>
<h3>Popular over Good</h3>
<p>Historically you can see lots of cases where the UFC treats different fighters differently.  Fighters that are popular move up the ranks faster, fighters that mess up and aren&#8217;t as beloved get scolded harder, etc.</p>
<p>Strikeforce doesn&#8217;t have a major history here, but little clues like Josh Barnett being in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix while Dana White for the UFC says no one cares about him.</p>
<h3>If it don&#8217;t make dollars, it don&#8217;t make sense!</h3>
<p>Finally, the UFC shows a bias toward making money.  Obviously, they are a business and need to make money to stay in the game.  However, as I&#8217;ve discussed several times, there comes a point where you have to act like a legitimate organization and let the sport do more of the driving.</p>
<p>The UFC has a very financially successful business model in regards to hyping fighters, their churn rate, their costs per event, etc.</p>
<p>Make no mistake about it, if I were investing money in an MMA company I&#8217;d be making it rain on Dana White.</p>
<h2>4) SUPERFIGHTS!!111!!1oneone1!!1</h2>
<p>Probably the most unrealistic hype I see surrounding the purchase of Strikeforce by Zuffa are these amazing superfights we are now going to get!</p>
<p>Really?  Which fighters didn&#8217;t the UFC have the ability to negotiate and sign previously?</p>
<p>Notice how much excitement the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix has garnered.  Yet Werdum signed a better deal with Strikeforce, Fedor negotiations broke down, Arlovski moved on, Barnett &#8220;isn&#8217;t cared about&#8221;, etc.</p>
<p>This again comes back to what the &#8220;UFC&#8221; really is, what their business model is and how Zuffa&#8217;s acquisition of Strikeforce will impact Strikeforce&#8217;s business model.</p>
<p>I find it very troubling that &#8220;UFC Fans&#8221; have basically been brain washed into believe that super fighters only happen if the UFC controls everything.</p>
<p>I bet dollars to donuts that UFC and Strikeforce could have worked out a deal to have two UFC heavyweights in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix.  Remember Chuck going over to fight in Pride?</p>
<p>With the limited time Strikeforce had some of the spotlight we saw Aoki come over from Japan, we saw Diaz head over and fight Mach, we have Kawajiri setup against El Nino.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s no reason that we couldn&#8217;t see Overeem Vs JDS.  See Brock Vs Fedor, see Machida Vs Mousassi, etc.</p>
<p>You don&#8217;t need the same parent company for that, you just need smart people running things to put some value on the fans and the sport and just a tidge less on the bottom line.</p>
<h2>More questions than answers</h2>
<p>At this point I think we really are left with more questions than answers.  We don&#8217;t know how long before a merger, if a merger even happens.  Maybe Strikeforce will be maintained for it&#8217;s &#8220;challengers&#8217; series&#8221; and on cable to help drive sales and pay-per-views for larger events.</p>
<p>Maybe we will get some super fights, but didn&#8217;t we get some of those when Pride was aquired?  To that end, couldn&#8217;t we have had them anyway?</p>
<p>What about the fighters?  Strikeforce gave fighters like Mousassi (who likes to compete non-exclusively), Daley (sucker punch!), and Barnett (nobody cares) a place to compete at a high level and for fans of the sport to see them compete.  If a merger happens, if negotiating strategies or business strategies change, what will happen in the future?</p>
<p>I think a lot of people need to step back at this point and really think about what this might mean.  Forget the hype and the branding and all of the propaganda and really think.  </p>
<p>What does this make possible that wasn&#8217;t possible before?  </p>
<p>What did we possibly lose that might have previously been possible?  </p>
<p>Is this good for the fans?</p>
<p>Is this good for the fighters?</p>
<p>Is this good for the sport!?</p>
<p>Like I said, more questions than answers&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Brock Vs Carwin Recap</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2010/brock-vs-carwin-recap/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2010/brock-vs-carwin-recap/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Jul 2010 13:23:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brock lesnar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shane carwin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=75</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It always amazes me that I can watch a fight as it happens, step away to clear my head, come back to watch the fight a second time, and then still not see what some other people see. Obviously personal tastes can skew things, but here&#8217;s what I saw&#8230; Round 1 Round 1 was all [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It always amazes me that I can watch a fight as it happens, step away to clear my head, come back to watch the fight a second time, and then still not see what some other people see.</p>
<p>Obviously personal tastes can skew things, but here&#8217;s what I saw&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-75"></span></p>
<h3>Round 1</h3>
<p>Round 1 was all Carwin&#8230;by a LOT.  Brock tried a takedown and got clipped on the way in and landed in neutral position.  Carwin stood up right after and soon proceeded to dominate the standup.</p>
<p>Brock got put down and spent a couple minutes on his back getting hammered away on.  I won&#8217;t say the fight should have been stopped, but we&#8217;ve all seen fights stopped for *MUCH* less.  If this fight were stopped two minutes in, think what people would be saying.</p>
<p>At the end of the round with about one minute left Brock gets back to his feet, has Carwin against the cage and even with Carwin gassed still doesn&#8217;t get the takedown.  In fact, Carwin appears to be locking up a Kimura as the round ends.</p>
<p>Even the announcers call this a 10-8 round for Carwin.</p>
<h3>Round 2</h3>
<p>Round 2 is all Brock.  Sadly though, not because of what he does, but because of what Carwin can&#8217;t do.  Carwin is gassed and takes about 2 seconds to retract his first punch of the round.  Brock does a fairly weak takedown attempt (by his standards) and get&#8217;s Carwin down.</p>
<p>From there Brock could have ended the fight via tickling if he wanted.  Carwin was completely gassed.</p>
<h3>Brock&#8217;s win or Carwin&#8217;s loss</h3>
<p>Often times in sport people will ponder whether one team won the fight or the other team lost.  I think in the case of this fight it&#8217;s obvious that Carwin lost it.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not hating on Brock here, but he didn&#8217;t come right out and dominate with his wrestling.  He didn&#8217;t beat Carwin at the standup game.  He didn&#8217;t sub Carwin off his back.  Those are all things Brock could have done to &#8220;win&#8221; the fight.</p>
<p>Carwin on the other hand pushed too hard too early.  In the pre-fight rant I mentioned the uncertainties surrounding Carwin and this came true.  He didn&#8217;t have the gas tank for it, he didn&#8217;t stay composed and adjust to the fight as it happened, etc.</p>
<h3>The good for Brock</h3>
<p>Brock showed heart.  As silly as it sounds there were a lot of people that expected Brock to drop to his knees and tapout as soon as he took one solid shot.</p>
<p>Obviously, that&#8217;s a very silly thing to think.  Brock competed at wrestling and football.  Somehow people let his &#8220;fake wrestling&#8221; overshadow everything else.  Wrestling is an incredibly difficult sport both physically and mentally.  You don&#8217;t get as good as Brock at anything without having heart.</p>
<h3>The bad of the good</h3>
<p>Here&#8217;s where people again flip flop on me and think I&#8217;m back to being a hater&#8230;</p>
<p>Brock is an MMA fighter, he holds the heavyweight title and he&#8217;s a grown ass man!!!  Saying &#8220;he didn&#8217;t tap&#8221; borders on an insult in my opinion.  Look at all the fighters that fight injured, that struggle through fights, that refuse to give up.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s part of the pedigree, it&#8217;s part of the job, it&#8217;s part of who they are as a person.  People don&#8217;t usually rant and rave about how brave A-Rod is for walking down to first base after getting beaned in the hip.  People don&#8217;t lose their mind every time Peyton goes back to the huddle after being sacked.</p>
<h3>The bigger issue</h3>
<p>The bigger issue here is that saying Brock has &#8220;heart&#8221; perfectly illustrates the struggle between where people say Brock is and where he actually is.  Let me explain&#8230;</p>
<h4>If Brock is #1 in the world&#8230;</h4>
<p>If Brock is the clear cut #1 heavyweight in the world.  If Brock is the favorite against everyone.  If Brock is a professional MMA fighter and the person others should aspire to be, then you can&#8217;t make comments like &#8220;heart&#8221; about him.</p>
<p>No one talked about &#8220;heart&#8221; when Anderson Silva came back against Lutter or Henderson.  People never mentioned &#8220;heart&#8221; about Fedor in his fight against Rogers or Arlovski.</p>
<p>You see, if a fighter is truly at that elite level then these things are known.  The fighter isn&#8217;t going to give up.  The fighter is going to try to find a way to win.  These are known.</p>
<h4>If Brock Lesnar is an up and comer</h4>
<p>On the other hand, if Brock is an up and comer, then all of these comments make sense.  When a fighter is new we just don&#8217;t know how they&#8217;ll react to different situations.</p>
<p>Fighters can panic on their back or when they are close to being submitted.  Some fighters fold like a lawn chair when hit.  Other fighters breakdown mentally when their opponent doesn&#8217;t wilt under their opening gambit.</p>
<p>In this context, saying things like &#8220;heart&#8221; make perfect sense.</p>
<h3>See the conflict?</h3>
<p>If Brock is #1 and all dominate and known to be awesome, etc.  then the fact that he did a basic sub on a completely gassed opponent he overpowers is <strong>*NOT*</strong> news, it is <strong>*NOT*</strong> a compliment, it is <strong>*NOT*</strong> reasonable praise.</p>
<p>If you see the potential in Brock though, and you recognize where he is and where he can be, then you can talk about heart.  If you see Brock as an up and comer then you can mention him using some sub techniques and not being &#8220;just a wrestler&#8221;.</p>
<p>What you cannot do though is claim someone is the all mighty best in the world and then claim them doing basic things that every top 1000 MMA fighter can do as being special.</p>
<h3>Bottom Line</h3>
<p>Against Carwin, Brock proved to some people that he is an MMA fighter.  However, he still needs a few more fights before he proves he&#8217;s the best in the world.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>UFC 116 Predictions</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2010/ufc-116-predictions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2010/ufc-116-predictions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Jul 2010 13:42:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brock lesnar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shane carwin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=68</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Lots of people are making predictions about the winner of Brock Vs Carwin. I felt they had that pretty well covered, so I thought I&#8217;d take a minute to predict the outcome of the eventual fight outcome. If Brock Wins First, here are my predictions if Brock wins. The huggers will&#8230; Claim Brock is #1. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lots of people are making predictions about the winner of Brock Vs Carwin.  I felt they had that pretty well covered, so I thought I&#8217;d take a minute to predict the outcome of the eventual fight outcome.</p>
<p><span id="more-68"></span></p>
<h3>If Brock Wins</h3>
<p>First, here are my predictions if Brock wins.</p>
<h4>The huggers will&#8230;</h4>
<p>Claim Brock is #1.  Which shouldn&#8217;t be a surprise because they were claiming he was #1 (or at least #2) before the win.  They will probably contend he is unbeatable and that his reign will be longer than Fedor&#8217;s.</p>
<h4>The Haters will&#8230;</h4>
<p>Claim Brock won because of his size.  Get upset with his intro, his exit, his post fight commentary, the look on his face during the tale of the tape and with how he won (even if by eye beam 0.2 seconds into the fight).</p>
<h3>If Brock loses</h3>
<p>On the other hand, if Brock loses we&#8217;ll be hearing&#8230;</p>
<h4>The Huggers&#8230;</h4>
<p>Will point out he was coming off injury and suddenly be perfectly content to mention that Brock is still a little green.</p>
<h4>The Haters&#8230;</h4>
<p>Will take this as proof that Brock doesn&#8217;t belong in the UFC, or MMA in general.</p>
<h3>Things to think about</h3>
<p>Here are just some talking points that seem to often get ignored by both sides.  I don&#8217;t feel any one point should decide how people view Brock, but I think all points should be acknowledged in the making of such a decision.</p>
<h4>Activity</h4>
<p>Brock has basically gone a year without fighting.  Some might &#8220;defend&#8221; that by saying he was injured.  However, isn&#8217;t an athlete being injured worse than just taking time off for family or even serving a suspension from a competition point of view?</p>
<p>Brock is a new fighter and claimed as a huge draw.  Yet after tonight he will have fought six times in three years.  That&#8217;s about 2/3 the activity of your average fighter.</p>
<p>Activity is a very important aspect of MMA because so much ties into it.  Fighters can get injured in training camp, they can break down mentally, they are forced to fight at less than 100%, etc.</p>
<h4>Success</h4>
<p>Here is what we know about the five fights so far&#8230;</p>
<p>One was a can.  One was a loss.  Two were against non-top 10 opponents.</p>
<p>Is that really the roadmap to being the #1 heavyweight in the world?</p>
<p>I feel there are a lot of people that don&#8217;t hate Brock, but can&#8217;t fathom how anyone can put him #1.  If people called him a strong prospect, a bad matchup for people, a potential future #1, then I don&#8217;t think you&#8217;d see as much hate.  Heck, a win over Carwin and I&#8217;ll entertain discussions of Brock being top 10!</p>
<p>Remember, most fighters have loses, but when one loss is 20% of your career&#8230;it weighs heavier.  The same with the weak first fight.</p>
<h4>Uncertainties with Carwin</h4>
<p>Where does Carwin really stand?  I know this is about Brock, but a lot will use his fight against Carwin as &#8220;proof&#8221; of where he stands.</p>
<p>In my opinion there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding Carwin.  How does he handle possibly being put on his back.  How deep into a fight can he go.</p>
<p>Realize that Carwin has a great win streak and a clear ability to end a fight.  However, his two biggest and most recent wins come against two of the most bi-polar heavyweights the division currently has.  Both Mir and Napao are believed capable of top 5 status and both have had brain fart loses in their careers.</p>
<p>Right now I think Carwin has done enough with what he&#8217;s been given to be a legit top 10 fighter, but I know some will be curious to see where he stands after another couple fights against quality competition.</p>
<h3>The truth</h3>
<p>Brock is still a young fighter despite all the promoting.  A fighter&#8217;s sixth fight can be very important, but it will not determine his legacy.  People constantly want that last fight to mean everything and in MMA it simply doesn&#8217;t.</p>
<p>My biggest hope for this fight is that Brock is healthy and win or lose he stays healthy.  If Brock could get back in the ring by the end of September and then fight again at year end it would help answer a lot of questions.</p>
<p>The UFC Heavyweight division is still very unclear.  Carwin can use a couple more high quality fights, Brock can use a few more fights.  You&#8217;ve got people like Cain and JDS floating out there.  There&#8217;s no doubt the division is more interesting than it was a few years ago, but I think it&#8217;ll be mid-late 2011 before things shakeout a bit.</p>
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		<title>UFC 110 Recap</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2010/ufc-110-recap/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2010/ufc-110-recap/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Feb 2010 02:11:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=59</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Quick &#8220;spoiler alert&#8221; for those that still haven&#8217;t seen the fights or read the results or looked at the updated rankings&#8230; Cain Velasquez There&#8217;s a ton to say here, but I&#8217;ll try to keep it brief (let&#8217;s be honest, we all know I&#8217;m going to fail). First and foremost, grats to him. Nog had a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Quick &#8220;spoiler alert&#8221; for those that still haven&#8217;t seen the fights or read the results or looked at the updated rankings&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-59"></span></p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=10713">Cain Velasquez</a></h2>
<p>There&#8217;s a ton to say here, but I&#8217;ll try to keep it brief (let&#8217;s be honest, we all know I&#8217;m going to fail).</p>
<p>First and foremost, grats to him.  Nog had a huge experience edge and Cain seemed very relaxed.  On the topic of experience, do people realize just how far Cain has climbed and how fast?  His first fight was less than 3 and a half years ago.  He now sits within the top 50.</p>
<p>Looking at it deeper you realize after two quick fights at the end of 2006 he didn&#8217;t have another fight until April of 2008.  One more fight in 2008, three in 2009 (a reasonable number) and here he is as one of the (I&#8217;d hope) undisputed top heavyweights currently in the sport.</p>
<p>Speaking of undisputed, can anyone logically explain to me how some still have Brock ranked higher than Cain?  Here&#8217;s the breakdown&#8230;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/fighter_compare/15713/10713/">Brock Lesnar Vs Cain Velasquez</a></p>
<p>Strength of Schedule is very close and Cain has simply fought more, won more, finished more fights, etc.  Despite fighting more Cain has fewer losses.  I know some will claim Brock has the belt, but there is so much wrong with that &#8220;logic&#8221; that I will dedicate an entire rant to shooting such a silly statement down if anyone even entertains the thought of posting such nonsense.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not a huge Cain fan, but I think he&#8217;s shown how quickly someone can climb the ranks when they get decent matchmaking and win their fights.</p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=1">Nog</a></h2>
<p>When I think about how things went and where they stand I honestly think many fans have no idea where Nog has been.  He&#8217;s the &#8220;warrior&#8221;, he&#8217;s got the &#8220;heart&#8221; and I&#8217;m not quite sure how anyone could dislike him.</p>
<p>Having said that, some people seem surprised he&#8217;s lost more frequently of late.  Let&#8217;s be honest here, Nog wasn&#8217;t some offensive juggernaut that overwhelmed his opponents for quick first round finishes.  Many of his fights saw later rounds, and he absorbed a *TON* of punishment.  Several of his &#8220;wins&#8221; could have easily been stopped.  When I first saw the Sapp fight I honestly thought he was dead at one point.</p>
<p>Nog is a great fighter and I wish him the best, but his decline didn&#8217;t come out of no where.  This has been happening for awhile and some people chose to ignore it because refs didn&#8217;t stop fights and Nog somehow found a way to pull out the &#8220;W&#8221;.</p>
<h2>The HW Division</h2>
<p>What a fucking mess.  Seriously, just wow.  </p>
<p>This has been going on for awhile and although I hope it cleans itself up soon, it&#8217;s pretty bad.  Cain moves to three, which seems reasonable, but Nog seems &#8220;too high&#8221;.  </p>
<p>Why is Nog &#8220;too high&#8221;?  Because other people aren&#8217;t winning.  Overall the HW ratings are quite low.  Nog is #2, but in other weight classes he&#8217;d be:</p>
<p>LHW &#8211; 6th<br />
MW &#8211; 6th<br />
WW &#8211; 7th<br />
LW &#8211; 6th</p>
<p>Those to me seem more like where he should be.  The problem?  No one else at HW has much of a streak going.  We&#8217;ve got some bad matchmaking, some &#8220;upcoming fights&#8221;, some inactive fighters, and the whole thing just adds up to one big mess.</p>
<p>Lots of fighters are in action soon though, so I&#8217;m hopefully with title holders getting back into action, and a few more events things will get fixed right up.</p>
<h2>Wandy Vs Bisping</h2>
<p>First&#8230;I checked when someone asked and Wandy is the only fighter I have currently listed who has &#8220;axe&#8221; anywhere in their nickname.</p>
<p>Second&#8230;I think Bisping has done a *LOT* right lately from a PR perspective.  His last post fight was mostly spot on and leading into the Wandy fight he said a lot right.</p>
<p>With that said, I just don&#8217;t like how &#8220;close&#8221; this fight was.  This fight is just one example, but it just happened, so I&#8217;m going to use it.</p>
<p>The way the fight played out you had Wandy almost finish the fight at the end of the second&#8230;possibly on his way to finishing it in the third and the fight was 29-28.  Before you say &#8220;but Wandy won&#8221;, understand that some sites had some people score the fight for Bisping.  Sadly, with where the rules currently stand, I understand how that could happen.</p>
<p>Nothing against Bisping, but without a time limit and judges I&#8217;m not sure what his &#8220;plan for victory&#8221; was.  Wandy had striking attempts to end the fight, he even had a possible submission to end the fight.  Did anyone see any sign that Wandy couldn&#8217;t have gone 5 or 7 or 9 or however many rounds it took for him to finally finish Bisping.</p>
<p>Doesn&#8217;t it seem a bit off that in a fight where one guy didn&#8217;t do hardly anything to &#8220;win&#8221; (finish) the fight and another came close multiple times that the fight was &#8220;close&#8221;?  The fact that a fight like this is close is why some bad decisions happen.</p>
<h2>Lytle Vs Foster</h2>
<p>As a point of contrast to the last fight&#8230;</p>
<p>The important thing to note here is that this was *NOT* some technique-less slobberknocker.  Sometimes people think &#8220;action&#8221; means two fighters standing near each other and arm punching for 2 minutes.</p>
<p>This fight had a variety of striking (and some grappling!).  Both fighters looked willing to engage and it seemed very unlikely this fight would go to decision.  Not only did fans see action, but they also saw some technique and I really wish more fights played out this way.</p>
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		<title>TUF 10 Finale &#8211; Recap</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/tuf-10-finale-recap/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/tuf-10-finale-recap/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kimbo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nelson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tuf]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=56</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wouldn&#8217;t it be nice to have an event where after it&#8217;s done we just talk about wins and losses? Here it is the day after the ultimate fighter finale and at best the winner of the season is the number three story. Seems kind of silly to me, so I&#8217;m going to start off talking [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wouldn&#8217;t it be nice to have an event where after it&#8217;s done we just talk about wins and losses?  Here it is the day after the ultimate fighter finale and at best the winner of the season is the number three story.  Seems kind of silly to me, so I&#8217;m going to start off talking about the winner&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-56"></span></p>
<h2>Roy Neslon Wins Ultimate Fighter Season 10 Finale</h2>
<p>You would think I&#8217;d see that headline more, but it appears other topics are ruling the discuss-o-sphere.  Perhaps part of the reason it&#8217;s not getting as much attention is because it&#8217;s not &#8220;breaking news&#8221;?  Roy actually went onto the ultimate fighter with over an 1800 rating.  That&#8217;s higher than many from &#8220;the comeback&#8221; season of the ultimate fighter.</p>
<p>Overall Roy stood out in the initial group a lot like Mac did.  These were both veteran fighters with solid fights on their records.  Doesn&#8217;t it seem kind of silly that a fighter that had top position on Arlovski would have to beat Kimbo Slice as part of his requirement to get into the UFC?</p>
<p>I&#8217;m happy for Roy, but at the same time the situation bothers me a bit.  If Roy looked different, I think he&#8217;d be more liked.  It seems many get distracted by his tummy and fail to recognize how good he is.  Perhaps this is offset by his opponents making the same mistake.  *shrugs*</p>
<p>Even more troubling to me though is how a legitimate fighter like Nelson has to jump through hoops to get into the UFC, but someone like Kimbo is handed the keys to the kingdom.  There is a line between sport and spectacle, a line between MMA and MME, a line of respect for other fighters and of legitimacy to the craft, and I can&#8217;t grasp anyone not finding this situation on the other side of that line.</p>
<h2>Kimbo Slice</h2>
<p>Some will read this and think I&#8217;m being hard on Kimbo, but understand that it wasn&#8217;t long ago I was explaining that <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/kimbo-slice-is-not-a-disappointment/">Kimbo Slice is not a disappointment</a>.  Clearly I&#8217;m not just a blind Kimbo hater and I try very hard to give him as much credit as he deserves&#8230;just not *TOO* much.</p>
<p>That last part is really where the issue lies.  Understand that Kimbo Slice walked into the octagon against a not top anything light heavyweight and went to decision.  Not even a good decision.  No disrespect to Houston, but he got floored by a non-top 20 light heavyweight in a matter of seconds.</p>
<p>Look, this is that line between sport and spectacle I keep seeing people step over like it&#8217;s not even there.  If Kimbo is a &#8220;legitimate&#8221; heavyweight for the UFC, then put him in there with someone.  Give him Justin Mccully, give him Eddie Sanchez, give him someone.  Don&#8217;t bring back a 9-4 guy with a suspect chin and make the fight catchweight and then act like it meant something.</p>
<p>This whole situation just reeks of money over sport.  How is it EliteXC was considered a &#8220;weaker&#8221; promotion and had Kimbo and that was a problem, but a &#8220;better&#8221; promotion can have him now and it&#8217;s OK.  </p>
<p>I&#8217;m sure some of you are going to edu-ma-cate me about how Kimbo has improved, but that is mostly BS.  Kimbo was completely shut down by a guy circling!!!  Seriously, Jimmie Johnson has the turning thing down, maybe that should be Kimbo&#8217;s next fight and we&#8217;ll see if he&#8217;s learned how to handle such high level technique.</p>
<p>On top of that you saw numerous openings for Kimbo that he either didn&#8217;t notice or was too slow to capitalize on.  I&#8217;m not talking too slow like hand speed, I&#8217;m talking mentally.  At times it&#8217;s good you see him &#8220;thinking&#8221; and at others it&#8217;s just painful to watch.  I&#8217;m not talking working out of a tough situation, I&#8217;m talking positions most cover in their first couple months of training.</p>
<p>Yet again, I&#8217;m sure some will tell me that he&#8217;s &#8220;learning&#8221; and that he&#8217;s at ATT now and all this stuff.  Look, Kimbo Slice didn&#8217;t roll off Youtube a month ago.  This wasn&#8217;t Kimbo being plucked from the interwebs and thrown in the ring with Big Nog.  This was a guy who&#8217;s first professional fight was over 2 years ago at this point.  On top of that there was the time he spent training with Bas!</p>
<p>Checklist of why I&#8217;m so upset:</p>
<p>-  Did Kimbo Win the show?  Nope<br />
-  Did Kimbo Win a fight on the show?  Nope<br />
-  Did Kimbo take every oppurtunity on the show to earn a spot in the UFC?  *NOPE*</p>
<p>That last one is the one that gets me most.  &#8220;He&#8217;s trying, He wants it&#8221;  Bullshit!  <strong>Bull-fucking-shit!!!</strong>  There was a point on the show where Kimbo could have stepped up and instead he acted like an entitled douchebag.  &#8220;I don&#8217;t want another loss&#8221;&#8230;&#8221;I&#8217;m not 100%&#8221;  Too fucking bad.  Seriously, too fucking bad.  We have fighters with staph and knee injuries and broken hands, and you won&#8217;t get a fucking cortisone shot!?</p>
<p>Maybe this sounds rough, but the situation just felt like he was saying, &#8220;I know I&#8217;m going to get to fight again anyway, so why bother looking bad again&#8221;.  Sure, why would you want to test yourself again, why would you want to &#8220;earn&#8221; something when so much is handed to you.  Believe it or not, I don&#8217;t think Kimbo is a hard guy to like (or at least cheer for).  The way this played out though really annoyed me and is just a huge blemish on the sport.</p>
<p><strong>Honest question: how much harder could Kimbo have fucked up on the show.</strong>  He didn&#8217;t win, he didn&#8217;t win a single fight, he basically refused to fight&#8230;honestly what would have kept him out of the UFC?!</p>
<p>Once he gets to the UFC he&#8217;s then given a catchweight fight against a guy that&#8217;s lost 3 out of his last 4 and is only back in the UFC for this fight.  Could we please be a little less obvious about how hard we are trying to make Kimbo look good?  I&#8217;m not saying throw him in there with Nog, I dont&#8217; even want him fighting Carwin, but why not at least give him a HW that was already on the roster?  Wouldn&#8217;t that have made it look a bit more respectable?  Made it look just a bit more legitimate?</p>
<p>If &#8220;Kimbo Slice&#8221; is going to be a legitimate MMA fighter and worthy of being on &#8220;the best roster in MMA&#8221; then he needs to step *WAY* up.  Truth be told with the last few years he&#8217;s had and the basics he still doesn&#8217;t grasp, I&#8217;m honestly not sure it&#8217;ll happen.  If people want to keep him as a PPV cashcow (as a form of stupid-tax on some &#8220;MMA Fans&#8221;), then fine&#8230;but could we at least be honest about it.</p>
<h2>Jones Vs Hamill &#8211; DQ?</h2>
<p>This section is more of a question than an answer.  I&#8217;m going over the fight in my head, I&#8217;m looking at the rules and I&#8217;m just not sure how it sits with me.</p>
<h3>Instant Replay in MMA</h3>
<p>I like that instant replay was used.  This is exactly the type of situation that it can be useful.</p>
<h3>Clarified Call</h3>
<p>Another positive was that the call was explained.  It appears Jones originally was going to be awarded a TKO, but that was later changed.  I thought seeing Keith Kizer explain both the rule and it&#8217;s application was a good thing.  Having a calm and profession explanation given when a fight ends in a violent and bloody way helps keep people from mindlessly calling the sport cockfighting.</p>
<h3>The question</h3>
<p>Was a DQ really the best possible call here?  Here are the things I can&#8217;t quite line up in my head.  Please help me out&#8230;</p>
<h4>Jones was winning</h4>
<p>Not a little bit, not a Houston Vs Kimbo two strikes thrown instead of one, but a &#8220;OMFG this better be a 10-8 round and I might see a 10-7&#8243;.  I think it&#8217;s important to note the situation at the time of the infraction.  This wasn&#8217;t Jones late in the third round of a fight he was losing kicking Hamill in the nuts intentionally.</p>
<h4>Wasn&#8217;t intentional</h4>
<p>I think this is another factor for me.  Jones wasn&#8217;t warned throughout the fight (DONT GRAB THE CAGE!!!), he wasn&#8217;t kneeing Hamill in the nuts all night or hammer fisting the back of his head with abandon.</p>
<h4>The fight could have been stopped</h4>
<p>This might be one of the biggest holdups for me.  Jones was winning as I said, but in this regard I&#8217;m talking about the reffing.  Hamill admitted he couldn&#8217;t really defend himself, Jones was looking at the ref and showed interest in simply having the fight stopped.</p>
<p>The reason this is so important is because the &#8220;illegal strike&#8221; is far from the only reason the fight was stopped.  The rule talks about &#8220;contributing&#8221; to the damage and the stoppage and to that degree it&#8217;s likely true.  However, the illegal strikes weren&#8217;t necessary for the fight to have been stopped.  Hamill had sustained a ton of damage and I don&#8217;t think a poke to the eye in the middle of a flurry against the cage on a fighter out on their feet should be a &#8220;DQ&#8221; either.</p>
<p>Lots of this will come down to judgment and personal taste, but Jones didn&#8217;t appear to be looking for an easy ref stoppage.  This wasn&#8217;t Roy slapping a guy in the head, it was Franklin pummeling MacDonald.  Jones showed a willingness to simply have the fight stopped and the ref wouldn&#8217;t do it.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m usually all in favor of giving every fighter as much of a chance as possible, but this wasn&#8217;t two or three shots, this wasn&#8217;t a flash knockdown.  Hamill was incapable of getting Jones off him.  Without the illegal shots the fight was either going to be stopped eventually, or Hamill was going to get pummeled for another minute(ish).</p>
<h4>What about a No Contest?</h4>
<p>All of the above come together and make me wonder if a &#8220;DQ&#8221; is really the right call.  Think about what a DQ does and a DQ says.  It basically says that Hamill won, it says that Jones lost and it pseudo implies that Hamill could have won if not for the &#8220;illegal&#8221; activity by Jones.</p>
<p>Did anyone see any honest indication that Hamill would win?  Honestly, remove the elbow strikes and have Jones hug him for the rest of the round and it&#8217;s still 10-8.  Add in the shoulder problem and it is possible Hamill doesn&#8217;t even answer the bell for the second round (*IF* they survive the rest of the first round).  Hamill has a ton of heart and many would have tapped, but is that really enough for a &#8220;win&#8221;?</p>
<p>Did Jones use the strikes to gain any real advantage?  I really don&#8217;t think so.  He was dominating the fight (it could have been stopped) and he was just keeping busy.  I don&#8217;t deny the strikes did damage, but they were far&#8230;*FAR* from the only damage.</p>
<p>In a case like this I honestly wonder if a &#8220;No contest&#8221; would be a better call.  What a No contest does is remove the fight.  That means Hamill doesn&#8217;t take a loss, it means Jones doesn&#8217;t get a win.  Doesn&#8217;t that seem like a more reasonable interpretation of what happened?  That way Hamill doesn&#8217;t eat a loss that was &#8220;partly&#8221; due to illegal activity and Jones still &#8220;loses&#8221; a win.</p>
<p>Maybe this is just how I&#8217;m looking at the terms and what they reflect, but &#8220;DQ&#8221; just doesn&#8217;t sit quite right.</p>
<p>-  If Hamill was winning<br />
-  If the fight had been close<br />
-  If Jones had been warned<br />
-  If the fight couldn&#8217;t have been stopped previously</p>
<p>If any of those things I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;d have minded so much.  I get the rule, I like that replay was used and everything sounds right.  Everything except Hamill being the &#8220;winner&#8221; and Jones being the &#8220;loser&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>MMA Ranking What If: Nog Vs Cain</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/mma-ranking-what-if-nog-vs-cain/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/mma-ranking-what-if-nog-vs-cain/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 01:57:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[big nog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brock lesnar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mma rankings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=53</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is a situation brewing that I think is semi-interesting (slash) semi-retarded. I&#8217;m going to layout what I know, speculate on what I suspect, and then hopefully have someone set me straight&#8230; Big Nog Vs Cain A possible fight I keep hearing about is Cain Vs Big Nog. The fight intrigues me and although I&#8217;d [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is a situation brewing that I think is semi-interesting (slash) semi-retarded.  I&#8217;m going to layout what I know, speculate on what I suspect, and then hopefully have someone set me straight&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-53"></span></p>
<h2>Big Nog Vs Cain</h2>
<p>A possible fight I keep hearing about is Cain Vs Big Nog.  The fight intrigues me and although I&#8217;d prefer to see Cain get one more win first (Mir? Gonzaga? JDS?) I understand it.  Given all the recent fight cancellations and Nog&#8217;s staph issues I probably won&#8217;t be sure of the fight until two weeks after it happens.</p>
<p>What I&#8217;d like to do is a play a big ole game of MMA Ranking What If assuming this fight actually does happen around February of 2010.</p>
<h2>MMA Rankings If Big Nog Wins</h2>
<p>I&#8217;m pondering about if Big Nog wins first because &#8220;big&#8221; comes before &#8220;Cain&#8221; alphabetically (technically so does &#8216;Antonio&#8217;).</p>
<p>The obvious question is &#8220;Where does Big Nog Rank among MMA heavyweights if he wins&#8221;.  My biggest fear is that some will still put him below Brock Lesnar.  Obviously that won&#8217;t happen on this site, but I&#8217;m talking in general.  Some people seem to have Brock spot welded in at number two (some have him #1 /boggle) and I wonder if Big Nog beating Cain would be enough to sway their opinion.</p>
<h3>Recent Fights</h3>
<p>The only real case that can be made for Brock being ahead of Nog ranking wise in MMA is recent fights.  Understand that Brock only has 5 fights (and only 4 wins).  Nog on the other hand has been around the sport for ten years and has over 30 wins (and only five loses).</p>
<p>Where things get interesting though is if we look at who each fighter has beaten recently (or ever in the case of Brock).</p>
<h4><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=978">Frank Mir</a></h4>
<p>Brock&#8217;s last fight was against Frank Mir, and he won.  However, just a couple years ago Brock also lost to Frank Mir.  Despite being 1-1 against Mir, Brock still edges out Nog who&#8217;s 0-1 against Mir.</p>
<h4><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=41">Randy Couture</a></h4>
<p>Prior to beating Frank Mir in a rematch, Brock beat Randy Couture.  Coincidentally enough, Big Nog beat Randy in his last fight.</p>
<h4><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=2">Heath Herring</a></h4>
<p>In order to &#8220;earn&#8221; his UFC heavyweight title shot, Brock beat Heath Herring.  This is interesting because Big Nog had already beaten Heath one year earlier.</p>
<h4>Everyone else</h4>
<p>Ok, so &#8220;everyone else&#8221; is a bit misleading because the only other win (and fight) remaining for Brock was about two and a half years ago against someone who was 3-5 at the time.</p>
<h3>Does Nog move ahead of Brock win a win over Cain?</h3>
<p>Do keep in mind that we are being incredibly gracious to Brock in the above comparisons.  If we go back even to 2006 for Nog we see 1-1 against Barnett and a win over Werdum.  Ignoring that though, you have to ask yourself if a single win over Mir recently means more than a win over Sylvia and a win over Cain (in this hypothetical situation).  </p>
<p>As a potential follow-up (that I sadly know is needed for some), if Nog beating Cain doesn&#8217;t put him ahead of Lesnar, then would a follow-up win against Mir put him ahead of Lesnar?  At that point both would be 1-1 against Mir, both would have beaten Couture and Herring.  Would the wins over Sylvia and Cain then be enough to offset Min Soo Kim?  Oh yeah, Min Soo Kim and 8(ish) years of being one of the very best heavyweights (and overall MMA fighters) in the world.  If you still answer &#8220;no&#8221;, please explain.</p>
<h2>MMA Rankings if Cain wins</h2>
<p>Now we move onto the letter &#8220;C&#8221; and ponder how things will look if Cain should win.  Things are a bit murkier because of the lack of direct comparisons.  There is still plenty of data to look at though.</p>
<h3>Activity</h3>
<p>Assuming a fight in February (and Brock likely out until the middle of 2010) we see:</p>
<p>Cain &#8211; 8 fights in about 3.5 years.  That is a bit skewed because after 2 fights in 2006 Cain didn&#8217;t fight at all in 2007.  Still we&#8217;d expect around 10(ish) fights during that time frame so Cain has an activity level of about 80%.</p>
<p>Brock &#8211; Assuming Brock doesn&#8217;t fight again until 2010-06-02 that gives him 5 fights in 3 years.  We&#8217;d expect 9(ish) during that time, so that gives Brock an activity percentage of abot 55%.  If Brock did have a fight that early (seems unlikely at this point) that would be 6 fights in 3 years, or about 66% activity level.</p>
<p>Either way, activity has to go to Cain even holding the year off against him.</p>
<h3>Strength of Schedule</h3>
<p>Brock has a sick Strength of Schedule for being so early into his career.  What gets overlooked is that Cain hasn&#8217;t had it super easy.  Right now it stands at:</p>
<p>Brock &#8211; 1820 SoS<br />
Cain  &#8211;  1763 SoS</p>
<p>Remember that we are talking about a post-nog fight situation here though.  Following the Nog fight Cain&#8217;s SoS would increase to 1805(ish).  The gap wasn&#8217;t huge to begin with and the potential fight against Nog just bridges the gap even more.</p>
<p>Following a potential fight with Nog, Brock would still have an advantage in SoS, but certainly not as large as some might expect.</p>
<h3>Results</h3>
<p>As silly as it may sound, I have to point this out:</p>
<p>Brock &#8211;  4 wins, 1 loss<br />
Cain (potenitally) &#8211; 8 wins, 0 losses</p>
<h3>Does Cain move ahead of Brock if he wins?</h3>
<p>This question is even more interesting because I think it raises additional questions about Brock being as high as #2.  A win over Nog (though awesome) would likely not make Cain the #2 heavyweight.  I think most would put him in the 3-6 range, but not likely #2 (remember, some don&#8217;t have Nog #2 right now).</p>
<p>Perhaps one of the implied questions here is if Brock would drop some in the rankings.  Right now he sits as high as #2, but he last fought in July.  Sources seem to indicate he &#8220;might&#8221; return in the middle of 2010, but that&#8217;s not certain.  Given the large gap of inactivity and the potential for outcomes such as Cain beating Nog (or vice versa), does Brock fall from #2, if you have him that high already?</p>
<p>Let me again pose a potential follow-up (to those where necessary), if Cain is still ranked lower than Brock with an additional win over Nog (giving him twice as many wins without any loses, and a very comparable SoS), what else does he need to do to pass Brock in the rankings?</p>
<h2>Easy Rant Reply format</h2>
<p>1)  Where does Nog &#8220;rank&#8221; with a potential win over Cain?</p>
<p>2)  Where does Cain &#8220;rank&#8221; with a potential win over Big Nog?</p>
<p>3)  Does Lesnar&#8217;s ranking shift at all? (would help to know where you have him already)</p>
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		<title>Couture Vs Vera Countdown</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/couture-vs-vera-countdown/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/couture-vs-vera-countdown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:27:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bisping]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[couture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hardy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[swick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vera]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=49</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Couture Vs Vera event is now just a few hours away, so I figured I&#8217;d throw some words up here in case anyone wanted some help passing the time until the event started. I&#8217;ll take a look at a few of the main fights, chit chat about the fighters&#8217; histories and try not to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Couture Vs Vera event is now just a few hours away, so I figured I&#8217;d throw some words up here in case anyone wanted some help passing the time until the event started.  I&#8217;ll take a look at a few of the main fights, chit chat about the fighters&#8217; histories and try not to sing&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-49"></span></p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/fighter_compare/41/3805/">Couture Vs Vera Fighter Comparison</a></h2>
<p>The first thing that needs to be addressed is the talk I&#8217;ve seen about the winner of this fight getting a title shot.  Obviously when Randy&#8217;s name is involved a title shot is always possible.  For those that don&#8217;t know, the last time Randy lost two straight fights at heavyweight he was given an immediate title shot at light heavyweight.  </p>
<p>These days the division is one of the deepest in all of MMA and the UFC has around 8 of the top 10 fighters in the division currently.  Given the current state of affairs it seems unlikely either fighter would get a title shot following a win tonight&#8230;though anything can happen.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=41">Randy Couture</a></h3>
<p>Randy is an exception to a lot of commonly believed MMA rules.  Often times I&#8217;ll quote something about his record or career, and some assume I&#8217;m bashing Randy.  In those times my goal isn&#8217;t to bash Randy, but rather to show that there are exceptions to these rules and that simply stating something like &#8220;recent fights are all that matters&#8221; is more of a &#8220;guideline&#8221; than a &#8220;rule&#8221;.</p>
<p>When talking about &#8220;recent fights are all that matters&#8221;, let&#8217;s look at Randy&#8217;s recent performances.  Remember, I&#8217;m not hating on Randy&#8230;I&#8217;m hating on the &#8220;rule&#8221; (ok more precisely the people that quote it as though it&#8217;s a 100% hard-fast-fact).</p>
<p>So far this year Randy has fought once&#8230;He lost.</p>
<p>Last year Randy fought once&#8230;He lost.</p>
<p>In 2007 Randy fought&#8230;twice&#8230;and won both!  (including the HW title)  This is interesting because the last time Randy won two fights in a row prior to this was in&#8230;2003. (this is trivia shit to throw at your buddies during the event, get a pen and paper more is coming).  What is so significant about 2003?  Glad I asked!  In 2003, Randy won the LHW title.</p>
<p>Almost everyone considers Randy an amazing fighter, a legend in the sport, etc.  I take nothing away from what he&#8217;s done and I&#8217;m impressed almost every time he steps in the cage.  However, if it were true that &#8220;only recent fights matter&#8221;, there&#8217;s no way Randy is top anything.  Understand that even &#8220;legends&#8221; lose in MMA and some of them do it quite often.  It doesn&#8217;t mean they are a can and it certainly doesn&#8217;t mean they should be disrespected.</p>
<p>Although I don&#8217;t expect a title shot for Randy after tonight&#8217;s fight (win or lose), I do see some interesting possible matchups.  With a win you might be able to see Randy Vs Lil Nog.  Since Randy&#8217;s last fight was a loss to Big Nog this could be interesting and the wins against Vera and Lil Nog makes a title shot more likely.</p>
<p>In the event Randy losses I think it&#8217;s probably time to make <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/fighter_compare/41/18/">Randy Couture Vs Mark Coleman </a> happen.  Both are legends in the sport, and although they&#8217;ve faced some of the same opponents, they have yet to meet head to head.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=3805">Brandon Vera</a></h3>
<p>Vera is a fighter that just needs to get back on track.  He opened his career by winning eight fights in a row.  He was a heavyweight then and people were talking about him challenging for the heavyweight title and possibly being &#8220;the one&#8221; to take out Fedor.</p>
<p>In the last two years though that eight fight win streak turn into a three and three record.  That six fight streak includes back to back losses at heavyweight that sent him down to the light heavyweight division.</p>
<p>Another thing to note about that six fight streak (get your pens) is that it has *FOUR* decisions in it.  Going from one decision in eight fights to four decisions in six fights is a pretty large increase.</p>
<p>Truth be told (no pun intended) Vera has a lot more to lose tonight than Randy does.  Randy&#8217;s legacy is set and a loss tonight won&#8217;t change much.  For Vera a loss tonight would be very bad.  It would make him 2-2 in his last four&#8230;it&#8217;d make him 3-2 since dropping to LHW (with wins against weaker opponents than those that beat him).  It would also make him three and four since starting his promising career 8-0.</p>
<p>Vera is a great fighter with great potential, and tonight&#8217;s fight gives him a large stage to show he&#8217;s serious about being one of the top guys in a very, very difficult division.</p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/fighter_compare/1450/3281/">Swick Vs Hardy</a></h2>
<p>A fight that might have upcoming title shot implications and doesn&#8217;t seem to be getting enough attention is Swick Vs Hardy.  I suspect the reason for that is because most don&#8217;t see Swick or Hardy as a legitimate threat to GSP.  Perhaps not, but Cote wasn&#8217;t seen as a major threat to Anderson, nor was Thales.  </p>
<p>Heck, who considered Serra a serious threat to GSP?  If fighters win, they move up the rankings and if they keep winning they earn a title shot.  Once two guys are in the cage&#8230;anything can happen.  The fact that some don&#8217;t see either fighter being a major threat to GSP shouldn&#8217;t take away from their fight against each other.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=1450">Mike Swick</a></h3>
<p>Mike &#8220;quick&#8221; Swick should come to the ring wearing a number five basketball jersey.  (got your pens?)</p>
<p>Here is how his career has played out thus far:</p>
<p>Won his first 5 mma fights<br />
Then lost to&#8230;Chris Leben</p>
<p>Won his next 5 mma fights<br />
Then lost to&#8230;Yushin Okami (dont&#8217; worry!!! Both were &#8220;middleweights&#8221; yup, no size or weight advantage at all)</p>
<p>Following that loss to Okami Swick dropped down to welterweight and has peeled off four wins in a row.  Could tonight be number five?</p>
<p>With his time on the ultimate fighter and the win streak at middleweight Swick is fairly well known and if he wins tonight it seems very likely he would need at most one more win before getting a title shot.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=3281">Dan Hardy</a></h3>
<p>Dan seems to be a fighter that has been under the radar a little bit.  He has had several fights against less well known, but still credible MMA fighters.  Even though he has won 11 of his last 12 it appears many focus on the two split decisions he&#8217;s had recently.  During that 12 fight streak only three fights went to decision.  Tonight&#8217;s fight is a great chance for Hardy to prove to MMA fans that he is for real.</p>
<p>I actually think this is a pretty good matchup from a ranking perspective.  This fight should also be quite good from a stylistic point of view.  Both fighters have ended a majority of their fights via (t)KO and both fighters also have a handful of submission victories.  The winner of this fight will be ranked higher and likely be very close to a title shot.</p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/fighter_compare/2356/662/">Bisping Vs Kang</a></h2>
<p>This is another fight that I think makes a lot of sense from an MMA ranking point of view and also has the potential to be a great fight.  </p>
<h3><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=662">Denis Kang</a></h3>
<p>I want to start by talking about Kang because he seems to be the less known fighter.  Understand that Denis has had a long career (over 40 fights in 10+ years).  </p>
<p>The start of his career wasn&#8217;t overly impressive:</p>
<p>Won first three<br />
Lost next two<br />
Won next two<br />
Lost next three</p>
<p>Following a NC against Hallman Kang then won his next two&#8230;lost his next two.</p>
<p>Now sitting at 7-7 is where his career got hot.  Kang went on to win five in a row before having a draw.  He then won 10 in a row before another NC.  Then won six more in a row before suffering his first *LOSS* in 23 fights.</p>
<p>Though that streak included fights against weaker opponents it also included wins against fighter like Ninja, Gono, and Suloev.</p>
<p>Following that tremendous run Kang descended into the slump he is now in.  He lost a split decision to Misaki.  Beat a 1-1 fighter, then dropped two in a row to Mousasi and Sexyama.  After winning two fights in a row (including one against Marvin Eastman) Kang came to the UFC and lost his debut against Alan Belcher.  A win in April against Professor X helped get Kang back on the right track.  Another win tonight would go a long way towards getting Kang&#8217;s name into the mix with other top tier middleweights.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=2356">Michael Bisping</a></h3>
<p>Tonight&#8217;s fight for Bisping is interesting to me because it seems as though he has two real challenges.  Denis Kang (whom we just discussed) is obviously a very real challenge.  However, Bisping also has a challenge on the public relations side of things.  Let&#8217;s look back at his career a bit and I&#8217;ll try to explain what I mean.</p>
<p>Michael&#8217;s career got off to an incredible start with him winning his first thirteen fights.  Not only did he win them, he finished everyone one of them.  That&#8217;s right, 13 fights&#8230;13 (t)KO/subs.  A very impressive start.  Factor in winning the ultimate fighter, having won his first three fights in the UFC and it&#8217;s easy to see how high Bisping was riding.</p>
<p>Where the wheels started to come off was in his next fight against Matt Hamill.  Although his official record shows a &#8220;win&#8221; for the fight, it was far from it.  Hamill battered Bisping in the first round, tossed him around several times and ultimately lost a very controversial decision.</p>
<p>Not only was this fight the first decision of Bisping&#8217;s career, but it quickly got worse when he took the mic after the fight.  In a time when he could have earned new fans, when he could have shown his ego wasn&#8217;t as big as some alleged, when he could have called for a big round of applause for Hamill and possibly requested/offered a rematch&#8230;he instead opted to toot his own horn and insult Hamill and the fans watching around the world.  </p>
<p>Following the &#8220;win&#8221; over Hamill Bisping faced Rashad Evans and offically &#8220;lost&#8221; that split decision.</p>
<p>With his second straight decision and the first loss of his career Bisping decided to drop down to 185.  His first fight was against Captain Miserable and many would have preferred McCarthy to just stay in the locker room.  Bisping cannot be blamed for the fight, but it was very one sided with McCarthy finally stopping and then retiring from MMA shortly there after.</p>
<p>Bisping&#8217;s second fight at 185 saw a solid performance against Jason Day that ended via TKO.</p>
<p>The fight that followed against Leben was another case of a win wrapped in a loss.  Taking on Chris Leben, Bisping kited his way to a unanimous decision victory.  Though a perfectly valid win their were some that wondered how a fighter that started their career with 13 straight fight finishes suddenly came into a fight going for a decision win.</p>
<p>In his last fight Bisping suffered one of the nastiest KOs seen in recent years.  Not only did Bisping suffer a KO, but the fight helped show just how far Bisping had slipped in the PR rankings.  A fighter that started off as exciting and maybe a bit polarizing has quickly become one of the more universally disliked fighters in the game today.</p>
<p>Even though Bisping has multiple challenges tonight I think it&#8217;s a very good thing for him.  If he handles it right he&#8217;s guaranteed to walk out of that arena a winner.  Here is how I see it.  </p>
<p>if&#8230;IF&#8230;*IF*&#8230;.<strong>*IIIFFFFFFFFF*</strong></p>
<p>Bisping is ready to go out there and fight, not for the decision, not for the victory, but for the fans, then he simply can&#8217;t lose.  All Michael has to do is go out there and throw, and hustle, and push the pace.</p>
<p>If Bisping is willing to do that, then the worst thing that can happen is that he will lose the fight.  Even with the loss he could still take the mic for a minute and say something akin to:</p>
<p>&#8220;I just want to thank Denis for one hell of a fight.  That one was for you guys.  I really didn&#8217;t care if I won or lost I just wanted to make sure I showed people that the old Bisping is back.  There was just no way I was going to let this one go to decision.  Look&#8230;I know I made some mistakes, I know I upset some people&#8230;I&#8217;m sorry.  The truth is, it got to me&#8230;The ultimate fighter, the fame&#8230;all of it, it got to me.  I lost sight of being a fighter and worse, I lost sight of you guys (the fans).  I&#8217;m not going to win them all, but I hope to at least make it exciting for those watching&#8230;Thank You&#8221;</p>
<p>Give or take a few words, I basically just pieced together some fortune cookies I had left over from last night.</p>
<p>What it really comes down to though is this.  Bisping is still an asset to the UFC.  Even if he loses in 12 seconds he&#8217;s still going to get another fight.  Even if he wins a boring three round decision, he&#8217;s going to get another fight.  Today provides him a great opportunity (win or lose) to score some much needed PR rating.  Obviously he could just play the heel and it might not change much.  I do recall a time though when a lot more people liked him, a lot more people wanted to see him fight and a lot more people would have been upset about Hendo dropping the can of peas on his head at the end of the last fight.</p>
<h2>Almost Done</h2>
<p>There are definitely some solid fights on tonight&#8217;s card and several interesting story lines.  For me it will be interesting to see what impact the event will have on upcoming title fights.  I also think it will be interesting to see how Bisping carries himself and if he manages to win back some of the fans he&#8217;s lost in recent years.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t intend to rant following the event because I&#8217;ve got too much ranting que&#8217;d up for next week as it is.  Then again, if there&#8217;s a really bad decision (couldn&#8217;t the Nelson fight have gone to the third round!?  I mean, I didn&#8217;t even know who they&#8217;d given the fight to and I thought it needed a third round), or something else happens I might not be able to keep quiet.  Lets hope for good, clean, exciting fights and I&#8217;ll see ya&#8217;s next week.</p>
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		<title>Fedor Vs Rogers Aftermath</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/fedor-vs-rogers-aftermath/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/fedor-vs-rogers-aftermath/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:46:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fedor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rogers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strikeforce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=48</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A lot of the talk in recent days has centered around Fedor and Rogers (which is understandable), but let us not forget that there were a lot of other great fighters on the card. I&#8217;d like to take a more in-depth look at several of the fighters on the card and see where they might [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A lot of the talk in recent days has centered around Fedor and Rogers (which is understandable), but let us not forget that there were a lot of other great fighters on the card.  I&#8217;d like to take a more in-depth look at several of the fighters on the card and see where they might go from here&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-48"></span></p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=8">Fedor</a></h2>
<p>Obviously, I have to start by talking about Fedor Vs Rogers.  In recent days I&#8217;ve seen several of my pre-fight fears realized.</p>
<h3>The Fedor Standard</h3>
<p>I&#8217;m not usually the one to make bold sweeping statements, but at this point in time I have to say that <strong>Fedor is currently held to a higher standard than any other professional athlete on the planet!</strong>  Such a statement seemed silly to me, but I gave it some more thought and actually compared the Fedor standard against that of other fighters, and other athletes/teams across various sports.</p>
<p>The standard that Fedor is now held to is akin to the Steelers defense not being able to give up a first down.  Not a TOUCHdown, a FIRSTdown!  The standard that Fedor is now held to in MMA is expecting Tiger woods to never bogey a single hole in golf.  Not one,  in fact, &#8220;par&#8221; might not even be good enough if Tiger were held to the same standard as Fedor.</p>
<p>In his fight against Rogers, Fedor was cut by a jab to start the fight, he was held against a cage and given a few knee strikes, and absorbed several seconds of GnP.</p>
<p>In exchange for this Fedor got Rogers to the ground multiple times, Fedor went Matrix on Rogers against the cage, Fedor went for an armbar that almost ended the fight, went for a Kimura that almost ended the fight, and <strong>OH THAT&#8217;S FUCKING RIGHT TKO&#8217;D ROGERS IN THE *SECOND* ROUND</strong>.</p>
<p>Clearly I saw this coming, obviously I knew not to have faith in humans (hope I never become one, being a Pooh is much better).  Honestly though, what more do you want from a fighter!?  The fact that Fedor got hit by a standing strike from a heavyweight striker is unacceptable?  Is he supposed to dodge everything!?  The fact that Fedor was pressed against the cage by someone more than 30lbs heavier than them is unacceptable?!?  The fact that Fedor didn&#8217;t finish the fight in the first round is unacceptable!?</p>
<h3>The Cut</h3>
<p>Fedor was cut by a pawing Jab.  He&#8217;s been cut before (see Lindland fight, TK &#8220;loss&#8221;, etc.).  This isn&#8217;t news, this wasn&#8217;t Fedor being exposed.</p>
<h3>Fedor Controlled</h3>
<p>According to the tale of the tape Fedor was about 32lbs lighter than Rogers, was 5(ish) inches shorter and gave up 7? inches of reach.  With that stacked against him, some still claim that Rogers controlled him against the cage.  Mind you, Rogers didn&#8217;t get him to the ground, he didn&#8217;t break him open further with dirty boxing, he didn&#8217;t actually end the fight or anything.  It&#8217;s amazing how people will usually boo fights against the cage and on the ground, but if it&#8217;s Fedor against the cage it&#8217;s proof of total domination.</p>
<h3>Second round stoppage!</h3>
<p>One of the things that always amazes me about the Fedor hate is how people act like Fedor pulled out the victory in the 11th hour.  Fedor haters always seem to make it sound like Fedor was getting dominated the entire fight and then in the last 10 seconds&#8230;at that last possible moment he got lucky and landed a big shot.  Here&#8217;s how some fights breakdown:</p>
<p>Fedor was getting &#8220;dominated&#8221; by Rogers (ya know, except for the sub attempts, the bigger shots, and despite a cut on his nose appearing to be more relaxed) until 1:48 of the *SECOND ROUND*. </p>
<p>For the Fedor Vs Arlovski fight we see Fedor &#8220;dominated&#8221; for&#8230;.Three Minutes and Fourteen seconds.  That equates to roughly 13% of the entire fight.</p>
<p>Lets take a look at Fedor Vs Lindland.  The big opening shot, the grappling&#8230;Lindland &#8220;dominated&#8221; Fedor for&#8230;.<strong>Two Minutes and Fifty-Eight Seconds!</strong>  (if it was 5, 5 minute rounds, I&#8217;m not certain on this one) that&#8217;s less than 12% of the fight.  Either way Lindland despite landing the first punch, and opening a cut on Fedor still couldn&#8217;t make it out of the first round!</p>
<p>What I don&#8217;t understand is when MMA became overtime in the NFL.  When the first person to land a kick or punch or cut or whatever was the &#8220;winner&#8221;.  People keep trying to bash on Fedor by saying he was &#8220;losing&#8221;, by claiming he was &#8220;dominated&#8221;, by claiming people &#8220;almost had him&#8221;, but the numbers show that Rogers lasting almost 1/4 of the fight is the best anyone has done in almost 4 years!  During that time span you also have three fights that didn&#8217;t even last two minutes and two that ended in less than a minute!</p>
<p>This just seems like another one of those cases where people are so desperate to bash on Fedor that what they say only seems to make Fedor seem more insane.  Of course he&#8217;s been touched in the ring, of course he doesn&#8217;t always finish fights in the first round, heck yeah I think he will lose soon.  Despite that, I still think there is little consolation in my trainer looking at me after a fight going &#8220;great job not getting laid out until the second round!&#8221;</p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=1767">Rogers</a></h2>
<p>Brett didn&#8217;t get enough credit going into the fight and sadly many seem to be downplaying what he&#8217;s done even more since losing to Fedor.  Other people seem to be giving Rogers more credit even though he lost.  Similar to how some viewed AA following his loss to Fedor.  Which, again, seems like a huge compliment to Fedor.</p>
<p>The biggest thing about Rogers that leaves me baffled is when I see statements like, &#8220;Rogers shouldn&#8217;t go to the UFC because he&#8217;d lose to Lesnar, Cain and Carwin&#8221;.  Why this confuses me so much is because even if it&#8217;s true he&#8217;d lose to those three people, that&#8217;s still not a reason he shouldn&#8217;t be there.</p>
<p>What some people seem to do is act as though being unable to hold the belt means you have no right to compete.  Even if Rogers would never hold a belt that doesn&#8217;t mean he shouldn&#8217;t be a professional fighter.  There are plenty of teams in the NFL/MLB/etc that haven&#8217;t won a title in a long time.  Why is it fighters like <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=817">Justin McCully</a> are accepted in the UFC for numerous fights, but someone like Rogers is shunned.</p>
<p>The fact is Rogers has a style many like to see, he finishes his fights, he&#8217;s got a solid record and he actually seems to be improving.  On top of all that, lets look at the &#8220;top 10&#8243; UFC heavyweights&#8230;</p>
<p>- Brock<br />
- Mir<br />
- Nog<br />
- Cain<br />
- Carwin<br />
- JDS<br />
- Cro Cop?<br />
- Gonzaga?<br />
- Rothwell?<br />
- Kongo?</p>
<p>That&#8217;s in no particular order, but most consider cro cop washed up.  Gonzaga is flaky as hell in the ring and lots didn&#8217;t even want Rothwell in the UFC to begin with.  Do people honestly think Rogers is incapable of being competitive against any of the fighters listed above?  What about against fighters like Berry, Hardonk, Gromley, Struve, and the other heavyweights we&#8217;ve seen in recent cards.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t about Rogers specifically, or even about the UFC.  What it&#8217;s about is that some fans seem to think if you can&#8217;t win the belt you shouldn&#8217;t compete at all.  There are some people that fail to realize how good fighters like Nate, Kampmann, and many others are.  When you are talking about a fighter being &#8220;good&#8221; it doesn&#8217;t mean you put them #1 or think they can beat everyone.  It means you think they provide legitimate competition to some fighters and in most cases that the matches would be interesting to watch.</p>
<h3>Fedor&#8230;the can *MAKER*</h3>
<p>Probably the biggest fear following a loss to Fedor is the &#8220;can status&#8221; tag.  Another common misconception in MMA is that losing two fights in a row means you are a washed up, has been, never was, scrub.  Following AA&#8217;s fight against Fedor he was highly regarded, some wanted a rematch, and then when he lost to Rogers (of all people) he was almost universally bashed.  Years of good fights, thrown right out the window and instead replaced with bashing about his &#8220;glass jaw&#8221;.</p>
<p>Tim Sylvia was claimed to be the counter to Fedor by some people for years.  He finally fights Fedor coming off a loss to Big Nog (two fighters both ranked higher than him) and suddenly he&#8217;s a no body.  Obviously the loss to Mercer didn&#8217;t help, but Timmy was already so hated it really didn&#8217;t matter much.</p>
<p>As another &#8220;MMA wide&#8221; thing people need to realize, losses happen!  Even if a fighter has an 80% chance of beating two fighters, that still means they have about a 1 in 25 chance of losing both matches back to back.  Understand that an 80% chance to win is crazy high for MMA and that &#8220;flukes&#8221; happen.  Rogers wasn&#8217;t really expected to beat Fedor and even if he loses his next match, it doesn&#8217;t mean he&#8217;s washed up.  It doesn&#8217;t mean Fedor was beating up a can, and it doesn&#8217;t mean Rogers should retire.</p>
<p>Depending on who is chosen as Rogers next opponent odds are pretty good that it will be almost a coin flip between who wins/losses the fight.  The fact that Rogers lost to Fedor (someone he was almost universally expected to lose against) shouldn&#8217;t tarnish his reputation.</p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=2490">Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou</a></h2>
<p>Despite all of the Fedor Vs Rogers clamor I almost started this rant by talking about Sok.  He is an incredibly talented fighter, but things just aren&#8217;t going right.  I know some will be upset by some of what I&#8217;m about to say, but please understand it comes from a place of respect and a place of hope.</p>
<h3>I don&#8217;t want to see Sok fight another elite fighter for a year</h3>
<p>Whether you call it &#8220;top 10&#8243; or &#8220;1900 rated&#8221; or whatever, I just don&#8217;t want to see it.  Sok burst onto the scenes in February of 2007 with a huge win over Lil Nog.  He returned April of that year to defeat Arona.  Since that time Sok has gone 3 and 4 with his best win coming against <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=118">Kazuhiro Nakamura</a>.</p>
<h3>Potential Vs Performance</h3>
<p>A common discussion on this site is that of MMA potential Vs MMA performance.  If you look at Sok&#8217;s striking, his athleticism, his grappling pedigree, there is no doubt he can be a scary guy.  However, when we look at performance we see that prior to the two big wins in Pride he got TKO&#8217;d by Glover.</p>
<p>Following those two wins a lot of people immediately put him top 10 and had him leap frog a bunch of people.  Despite only being 4-1 in his early career Sok was immediately &#8220;one of the best LHW in the world&#8221;.  What followed was a loss to Machida, a win against Nak, a loss to Cane and a loss to Babalu.</p>
<p>The problem is despite the losses, Sok was still being given these upper tier fights because of his potential.  I honestly think it&#8217;s hindered his natural progression and resulted in him under performing.</p>
<p>People need to realize that fight outcome seldom changes potential.  If you are ranking on &#8220;potential&#8221; then Sok will be a top 10 fighter loss after loss after loss.  However, sport doesn&#8217;t work like that and outcome does matter.  For that reason, and many others, I want to see Sok get back on the winning track.</p>
<h3>Climbing the MMA ranks</h3>
<p>Great fighters early in their career often have several fights they are &#8220;expected&#8221; to win.  It&#8217;s because they are newer and despite being the (heavy) favorite there&#8217;s still a lot they can gain from the fight.  When we look at fighters like Cain, like Fitch, and many others we see a natural progression in their fights.  A fighter like Jon Jones is an excellent example of a fighter with huge potential that took a half dozen or so fights early in their career and then started to really climb the MMA ranks.</p>
<p>With Sok, we don&#8217;t see that natural progression.  Sok had two wins against people most have never heard of, a loss to Glover, and then a flash KO of Lil Nog immediately made him &#8220;top 10&#8243;.  Sok leapfrogged hundreds of other fighters and in doing so missed out on a lot of experience.  In those early fights an MMA fighter will find themselves in positions they didn&#8217;t expect.  They will find their opponent doesn&#8217;t go down quite as quickly as they expect.  They will learn how to win.</p>
<p>The contrast between Sok and a fighter like Fedor is very evident.  On a night where Fedor got his nose opened up to a jab and was being grinded against the cage by a larger man, they never lost their composure.  Fedor wiped blood from his face a couple of times, he stayed calm, he stayed focus and he came back to win.  In many of Sok&#8217;s losses you see him showing the potential to win, but once he fails to win early, things seem to fall apart.</p>
<p>In the fight with Banha Sok showed his early fury, and then puttered out.  In the fight with Machida Sok appeared frustrated (it happens), and never really accomplished much in the fight.  This recent fight against Mousasi saw a fairly competitive opening round, but things quickly went south.</p>
<h3>Not just Sok</h3>
<p>As I said, I know some people won&#8217;t want to hear this, but it&#8217;s not like Sok is the only one this has happened to.  Although not as bad Napao was in a situation where a big win threw him into the top 10.  He put down Cro Cop and then found himself in the ring with a very experienced heavyweight.  In that fight his nose was busted open and he actually attempted to call timeout.  He struggled, and eventually just plain quit.  Following that loss he was immediately thrown into the cage against Werdum (someone who had already beaten him once).</p>
<p>Following those back to back losses Napao was given a clear step down in competition.  I think the same thing is what needs to happen to Sok at this point.  I have no doubt that he *could* beat almost anyone, but I also realize he&#8217;s likely to lose.  For me, I&#8217;d rather see Sok take four or five fights over the next year, beat some quality (but not elite) fighters and actually learn how to win.  Not just early, not just with power, but with heart and determination and confidence in himself.  Sok is still young and I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s too late for him to get back on the right track.</p>
<p>For those that wonder, yes Sok could just keep fighting higher tiered fighters and get his groove back that way.  However, even major league players use a pitching machine at times, they still take batting practice.  Sok could try to &#8220;shoot himself&#8221; out of the slump like an NBA player, but it seems far riskier.  </p>
<p>Right now Sok has the 12th hardest strength of schedule in MMA history and a current rating below that strength of schedule.  In fact, his max rating ever is only a single point above his strength of schedule.  He is now 7-5 after being 4-1.  If nothing else, let him win some fights and build himself back up a bit so that when he does win it&#8217;s not a &#8220;huge upset&#8221; that poorly reflects on the fighter he beats.  Sok has the potential to be amazing, and I&#8217;d really enjoy seeing his performances live up to it.</p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=491">Gegard</a></h2>
<p>Gegard is an interesting contrast to Sok because of their very different paths through the MMA ranks.</p>
<h3>Activity</h3>
<p>One of the things that really seems to separate Gegard from other fighters is his desire to fight.  I know that might sound silly, but look at his career thus far&#8230;</p>
<p>2003 &#8211;  3 fights&#8230;first fight ever wasn&#8217;t until April<br />
2004 &#8211; 2 fights&#8230;first of the year wasn&#8217;t until September<br />
2005 &#8211; 7 fights<br />
2006 &#8211; 6 fights<br />
2007 &#8211; 3 fights&#8230;all within about 3 months<br />
2008 &#8211; 6 fights<br />
2009 &#8211; 3 fights</p>
<p>Now obviously not all of those fights were against top notch competition, but some of them were.  Additionally, Mousasi has competed in K-1 fights and practiced other disciplines during this time.</p>
<h3>Climbing the MMA ranks</h3>
<p>It&#8217;s interesting to contrast how Sok and Gegard climbed the MMA ranks.  Sok busted onto the scene following a couple big wins.  Mousasi on the other hand has been steadily climbing the ranks for years.  He fought in several smaller shows, went 2-1 in pride, won the dream MW GP, and is in the middle of a 14 fight win streak.</p>
<p>Some people seem to hold those weaker fights against Gegard, but what people need to understand is that every fight is a chance to learn.  Those fights are also chances to be tested or even lose.</p>
<h3>Ceiling?</h3>
<p>I&#8217;ve heard that Mousasi plans to go all the way to heavyweight, but I&#8217;m not sure I see that working out very well.  We are seeing more and more large heavyweights and the days of heavyweights like Cro Cop and Fedor appear to be nearing an end.</p>
<p>Perhaps we&#8217;ll see an additional weight class created to breakup the gap between 205 and 265, but if not I think Gegard would do well to stay at 205.</p>
<h3>Next up?</h3>
<p>I&#8217;m very curious to see who Gegard fights in his next couple of fights.  We&#8217;ve heard rumors that Dan Henderson is signed now with Strikeforce, but I haven&#8217;t seen anything offical.  That could be a pretty interesting fight.  I also know Gegard has expressed interest in boxing as well, so we&#8217;ll have to see which sport his next fight takes place in.</p>
<h2><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=1666">Jake Shields</a></h2>
<p>Speaking of ceilings.  I&#8217;m honestly not sure how well 185 is going to continue to work for Shields.  He has done well and can cause problems for fighters, but he is obviously at a disadvantage compared to fighting at welterweight.  Sadly, despite fighting at the higher weight class Shields continues to garner boo&#8217;s and is shown a lack of respect.</p>
<h3>Shields is boring</h3>
<p>One of the main problems people seem to have with shields is that he&#8217;s very much a ground fighter.  Where this gets confusing is that being a &#8220;ground fighter&#8221; shouldn&#8217;t naturally be a strike against someone.  Look at a fighter like <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=989">Demian Maia</a>.  </p>
<p>Clearly being a guy that prefers the fight on the ground isn&#8217;t automatic cause to hate a fighter.  Maybe it&#8217;s because of decisions&#8230;</p>
<p>Jake &#8211;  24 wins&#8230;11 decisions<br />
Randy Couture &#8211; 16 wins&#8230;7 decisions</p>
<p>When you add in the fact that 8 of Jake&#8217;s last nine wins had come via sub/(t)ko, I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s the issue.</p>
<p>Also, when looking at the Miller fight understand that Shields was giving up a fair amount of size that Miller doesn&#8217;t really get finished.  In fact, when we look at <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=1542">Mayhem</a> we see 22 wins and 7 loses.  In those 29 fights (one no contest) Mayhem has lost exactly twice by stoppage.  Trigg won via TKO about three years ago and Todd Carney got a Guillotine choke over seven years ago (in his next fight Mayhem induced a towel stoppage from Carney&#8217;s corner).</p>
<p>That means Shields had finished eight fights in a row, he fought a guy bigger than him that even GSP went to decision against and&#8230;Shields is boring because of this?  </p>
<p>I think what makes this more confusing to me is that I happened to catch a replay of Hughes Vs Trigg recently on TV.  The fight has a lot of ground action and the crowd at that time actually seems to be responding to it in a positive manner.  For example, there&#8217;s no immediate boo&#8217;s from the crowd when the fight hits the ground, there seems to be informed reaction when a position is changed or a sweep is attempted.</p>
<p>That Hughes Vs Trigg fight was almost 6 years ago at this point, but people seemed more informed of the ground game back then.  I actually saw someone claim that the Shields Vs Miller fight was &#8220;devoid of Jujitsu&#8221;.  Clearly this person thinks it takes years to earn a blackbelt because it&#8217;s hard to master the rear-naked choke and the armbar&#8230;obviously the only two techniques offered by the discipline.</p>
<p>Look, I&#8217;m not saying Shields Vs Miller was the best fight ever.  What I am questioning is how it can be viewed so poorly and how Shields can be blamed for the majority of it.  Everyone seems to blame the guy on top for not letting the fighter on the bottom get up.  Why isn&#8217;t the fighter on the bottom ever blamed for just sitting there and not trying anything and possibly exposing a limb?  Do people honestly think we should get to a point where fighters don&#8217;t bother training takedown defense or much for sub defense because all they have to do is tie the guy up for 15 seconds and get a standup?</p>
<h2>Yes, there was some good</h2>
<p>I know sometimes I tend to rant on the &#8220;doom and gloom&#8221; side of things, but there was a lot of good from the event as well.  Several people e-mailed me about the fights that had never watched a whole MMA event before, the event drew solid ratings and despite many disliking the Shields Vs Miller fight I received several comments from people who were &#8220;surprised the ground game could be so back and forth&#8221;.</p>
<p>I hope you enjoyed the event and I hope you enjoyed the rant.  8)</p>
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		<title>Shogun Vs Machida &#8211; Closure</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/shogun-vs-machida-closure/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/shogun-vs-machida-closure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:47:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[judging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machida]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shogun]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ufc]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=46</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the last week or so I&#8217;ve sat down several times to try to talk about something (anything!) other than Shogun Vs Machida. Sadly, the voices in my head aren&#8217;t getting any quieter and I&#8217;m really starting to get behind on other things. In an attempt to appease the voices and hopefully purge this whole [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the last week or so I&#8217;ve sat down several times to try to talk about something (anything!) other than Shogun Vs Machida.  Sadly, the voices in my head aren&#8217;t getting any quieter and I&#8217;m really starting to get behind on other things.  In an attempt to appease the voices and hopefully purge this whole thing from my mind I&#8217;m going to just rant away.  Some of this is old news, some might not be.  Either way, I hope that after this at least I will be able to leave it all behind&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-46"></span></p>
<h2>1) Don&#8217;t put the fight in the judges hands</h2>
<p>Every single time a fight goes to decision someone feels the need to say this.  There is no doubt some fighters plan/hope/try for decisions, but many don&#8217;t.  A simple fact of MMA is that it&#8217;s damn hard to finish a fighter that is trying to not lose.  I know some came into MMA with this &#8220;ultimate knockouts&#8221; belief in MMA, but a hell of a lot of fights go to decision.  Actually, let&#8217;s put some numbers to it&#8230;</p>
<p>About 18% of all MMA fights end in decision.  That is about 1 in 5.  Do people honestly think that in one out of every five fights neither fighter is trying to finish their opponent?</p>
<p>If we actually look back at this old rant&#8230;<a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2008/btn-weight-and-decisions/">Weights and decisions</a><br />
We see that for light heavyweights around one in every *FOUR* fights ends in decision.</p>
<p>As you skim over that old rant, take note of a few other things&#8230;</p>
<p>In the heavy handed list Shogun appears.  To date 16 of his 18 wins have come via submission or TKO.  Does that strike you as someone that &#8220;goes for the decision?&#8221;  Does it seem like a guy that often &#8220;leaves it in the judges hands?&#8221;</p>
<p>As for something we&#8217;ll get into later, note the next section amusingly enough entitled, &#8220;Time to see if Cecil Peoples was watching the same fight as the rest of us…&#8221;.  Yeah, I&#8217;m Evil, and I&#8217;m psychic, crazy right!?</p>
<p>Also, please take a quick second to look at:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/fighter_compare/776/361/">Shogun Vs Machida Fighter Comparison</a></p>
<p>Notice how we see shogun with only 2 wins via decision and <strong>Lyoto with over *HALF* of his victories coming via decision</strong>.</p>
<p>The fact that some claim you shouldn&#8217;t leave the fight in the judges&#8217; hands is bad enough given how often it happens in MMA.  What makes it even worse is that some honestly seem to blame the &#8220;16 finishes out of 18 wins&#8221; MMA fighter over the &#8220;more than half his wins via decision&#8221; MMA fighter.</p>
<h2>2) This was *NOT* an overly complicated fight to judge</h2>
<p>One of the things that seems to get lost in this whole &#8220;judging&#8221; controversy is how straight forward the fight was.  This wasn&#8217;t a fight that displayed the full spectrum of either fighter&#8217;s skillset.  We didn&#8217;t have a single successful takedown, we didn&#8217;t have *ANY* submission attempts.</p>
<p>The above isn&#8217;t intended to take away from either fighter in anyway.  They are both incredibly skilled and I would hope everyone can agree on that.  It is important to realize though that the fight did not have some complex grappler vs striker situation.  It wasn&#8217;t as though Machida won the standup and Shogun managed some takedowns.  We didn&#8217;t see Machida come close to finishing it on the feet and Shogun almost finishing it on the ground.</p>
<p>This fight was far more of an apples to apples kind of fight than judges are often asked to score.</p>
<h2>3) Machida doesn&#8217;t suck</h2>
<p>This seems like a good place to point out that Machida doesn&#8217;t suck.  He&#8217;s not a &#8220;can&#8221;, he shouldn&#8217;t fall outside the top 10 or anything silly like that.  Machida is still crazy good and a favorite against almost anyone (possibly even Shogun in the rematch).</p>
<h2>4) A rematch doesn&#8217;t make it right</h2>
<p>Sometimes a rematch can do more harm than good.  If Machida wins the rematch some will claim that the first fight didn&#8217;t matter.  Some will even claim that Machida was clearly the better fighter even back then.</p>
<p>I also can&#8217;t comprehend how some people think a second fight &#8220;fixes&#8221; anything that went wrong the first time.  If NFL refs don&#8217;t properly award a touchdown on first and goal, it&#8217;s not suddenly all better because the team scores on second and goal.  We already have word that Machida is injured and the rematch will likely be delayed for who knows how long.</p>
<p>MMA fighters don&#8217;t get to compete every week or even every month.  With such a small number of fights and such relatively short careers it is even more important that things are done right the first time.</p>
<h2>5) Have to beat the champion&#8230;blahblahblah</h2>
<p>Another tried and true line of horseshit that comes out in cases like this is basically that in order to &#8220;beat&#8221; the champion by decision you have to &#8220;really&#8221; beat him.  Could someone please forgive my pooh like ignorance and explain this to me.</p>
<p>Does this mean that if the Steelers go back to the super bowl the team from the NFC has to win by five or more points to &#8220;really&#8221; become the champion?</p>
<p>Does it mean that if the Lakers go back to the NBA finals they only have to win 4 out of 7, but the other team needs to win 5!?</p>
<p>Does it mean that if both fighters stand in the middle of the ring and do nothing but exchange punches the &#8220;challenger&#8221; has to land 3 more punches than they take?</p>
<p>Is a challenger expected to score three takedowns to win a round, while the the champion only needs two?</p>
<p><strong>Does close only count in horseshoes, hand grenades and while defending your MMA belt now!?!?</strong></p>
<p>The fact that there is *NO* way to clearly score MMA fights currently only gets messier when we now have a plus-minus built into championship fights as well.  Is it 10% more?  15% more?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a frackin fight people, if you can declare a winner then it&#8217;s a decisive win.  Maybe it&#8217;s not Fitch Vs GSP, but if a judge ever goes &#8220;well the challenger won the round, but they didn&#8217;t win it by enough&#8221; I swear to dog I&#8217;m done with the sport.  &#8220;Oh I&#8217;m sorry Fighter B, you only landed 18 leg kicks, we need to see 21 for you to win the round&#8221;.  Seriously, how fucking stupid does this sound!?  Am I the only one that finds MMA scoring to be shitty enough without the the need for yet another arbitrary criteria piled on top!?</p>
<p>UFC Title fights will now be scored based upon:<br />
-  Octagon Control (more on that later)<br />
-  Agression (more on that later)<br />
-  How long you&#8217;ve held the belt?!?!??</p>
<p>Honestly, does an &#8220;interim&#8221; champion get half of the &#8220;champion modifier&#8221; that a full fledged champion gets?  What if GSP (WW Champion) fights Anderson Silva (MW Champion)?  Do their mods cancel each other out?  Does it go by who&#8217;s held the belt longer?  Does it go by who&#8217;s had the most title defenses?  </p>
<p>Oh, and could someone please show me where on the books this &#8220;champion&#8217;s clause&#8221; is even listed?</p>
<h2>6) Salt in the wound</h2>
<p>With a vast majority of MMA fans upset and confused we were then treated to an &#8220;explanation&#8221; by one of the judges.  Our ole buddy Cecil Peoples from above was kind enough to shed some light on the subject.  The full interview can be found <a href="http://www.cagereport.net/Cecil-Peoples-I-believe-Lyoto-won-the-fight-clearly.html">Here</a>.  I don&#8217;t want anyone to think I&#8217;m taking any of what he said out of context, so I&#8217;ll quote as much as I can and walk through it&#8230;</p>
<h3>First of all what you need to understand is that from where the judges are sitting, we get to see things that the fans at home may miss.</h3>
<p>That is *very* true.  In fact, I would even go so far as to say that judges should be watching for things many &#8220;fans&#8221; at home are not.  One of the things I&#8217;ve noticed over the years is that I watch MMA much differently than most.  I watch both fighters, I pay attention to positioning and many other subtle details.  Many fans, especially if one of their favorite fighters is competing tend to get a case of tunnel vision.</p>
<p>Having said that, I also think it&#8217;s important for Cecil to recognize that there are advantages that fans have when scoring a fight as well.  We have replay, we have different views, we have more time to make our decision, etc.</p>
<h3>Mauricio Rua was being aggressive but it wasn&#8217;t effective aggressiveness which is what we as the judges look for when scoring a fight.  The way I saw it, Lyoto was landing the more cleaner and damaging strikes throughout the fight &#8211; if you take a look at the judging criteria clean strikes are valued more-so than the quantity of strikes landed.</h3>
<p>The criteria for &#8220;effective aggressiveness&#8221; that I was last shown was basically:</p>
<p>1. This simply means who is moving forward and finding success.(scoring)<br />
2. Throwing a strike moving backwards is not as effective as a strike thrown moving forward.<br />
3. Throwing strikes and not landing is not effective aggressiveness.<br />
4. Moving forward and getting struck is not effective aggressiveness.<br />
5. Shooting takedowns and getting countered and fended off is not effective aggressiveness.</p>
<p>Taking a look at <a href="http://fightmetric.com/fights/Machida-Shogun.html">Shogun Vs Machida breakdown</a> We see:</p>
<p>Shogun- 149 thrown 82 landed ~55%<br />
Machida &#8211; 116 thrown 42 landed ~36%</p>
<p>That leaves us in a situation where everyone I know agrees Shogun moved forward more, threw more shots going forward, ate less shots going forward, and landed a higher percentage.  Basically the only criteria not in Shogun&#8217;s favor here is that he never landed a successful takedown.  </p>
<p>Even still, does failing to take down an opponent you are beating on the feet really completely offset the effective aggression of your strikes?</p>
<h3>Although Rua threw a lot of low kicks they were not as damaging as Lyoto&#8217;s diverse attack in the earlier rounds which is why I scored the first three rounds for Machida.</h3>
<p>Every single between round clip I saw of Lyoto had him leaning back against the cage getting his legs iced.  Does anyone have shots of Shogun&#8217;s midsection getting iced repeatedly or his cuts on his face being tended to?</p>
<p>Later in the fight you even see Lyoto changing his stance.  There are even moments where you can see his body physically reacting to the damage he has taken.  </p>
<h3>You have to keep in mind we always favour the fighter who is trying to finish the fight, and leg kicks certainly don&#8217;t do that.&#8221;</h3>
<p>Seriously!?  Serious-fucking-ly!? Ok let&#8217;s query the database real quick&#8230;</p>
<p>- TKO (Leg Injury)<br />
- TKO (Leg Kicks)<br />
- TKO (Leg Kick)<br />
- Submission (Leg Kicks)<br />
- Verbal Submission (Leg Kicks)</p>
<p>Yeah, fights neeevvvvvvveeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr end because of leg kicks.  I mean, take a look at <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=3805">Brandon Vera</a>.  In March of *THIS FUCKING YEAR* he is credited with beating <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=249">Michael Patt</a> via TKO (Leg Kicks).</p>
<p>Seriously, I try to understand, I hope to learn, and I&#8217;m really&#8230;*REALLY* trying here, but what kind of misinformation driven bullshit is this?!  Every time Hardonk steps in the ring we have to hear about his leg kicks.  Do they keep talking about them because they aren&#8217;t serious weapons and have zero ability at all to end a fight?</p>
<p>All of this ignores the fact that leg kicks are a tool to *HELP* end a fight.  Even if a leg kick doesn&#8217;t do it on it&#8217;s own it has numerous other benefits.</p>
<p>Also, since I&#8217;m just ranting away, how the fuck can a judge bad mouth leg kicks when so many judges slurp the piss out of the holy takedown-dick?!?!  I&#8217;ve seen four minute and thirty second ass-whoppings completely offset by a weak single leg takedown in the final 20 seconds of the round.  Yeah, clearly the guy was going for the takedown to &#8220;finish&#8221; the fight and not to slowdown the matrix-esqe assault to his dome.  </p>
<p>Good fucking god.  Seriously, maybe I&#8217;m a bit more upset than some fans about this, but how the hell can anyone sit there and accept total, false, wrong bullshit like &#8220;and leg kicks certainly don&#8217;t do that&#8221;.  </p>
<h3>When both fighters are engaged in a striking match what I always look for is the fighter who is being judicious, picking his spots, being accurate and landing the cleaner strikes which ultimately is what Lyoto did more effectively than Rua.</h3>
<p>Yes, this was a STRIKING match, as I said above.  Now scroll back up to the numbers that show Shogun landing more strikes and at a higher percentage and explain to me how the hell you can go from &#8220;picking his shots, being accurate, and landing the cleaner strikes&#8221; and somehow conclude Shogun lost.  What is more &#8220;effective&#8221; about throwing fewer shots, missing a higher percentage and taking more damage!?</p>
<h3>Lyoto made Shogun come after him, he determined where the fight took place which in my opinion constitutes as effective Octagon control.</h3>
<p>I honestly don&#8217;t know how to respond to this without mentioning Kalib.  Look, I&#8217;m a *HUGE* fan of counter punchers.  Quick counters, great straight lefts, etc. all are awesome.  Watching an MMA fighter find their range, get their timing down, etc. that is great to watch in my opinion.</p>
<p>To somehow ignore the &#8220;effective aggressiveness&#8221; that Shogun clearly demonstrated and award Lyoto much of anything for backing away from striking exchanges that he was losing is beyond me.  I&#8217;m not a very smart Pooh, I don&#8217;t claim to be (just Evil).  However, I am at a total loss here.  Are we honestly being told that all other things being equal the fighter moving backwards wins?</p>
<p>Let me also be clear that had this been a more diverse fight I could maybe understand this better.  If Shogun were losing the stand up, but winning the ground game with some great ground and pound.  Then this would make more sense to me.  Then I&#8217;d look at Machida keeping it standing, I&#8217;d look at Shogun not being able to get it to the ground, etc.</p>
<p>The problem with that is it ignores the fact that Shogun landed more strikes, at a higher percentage, while inflicting more damage!  Almost this entire arguement seems to hinge on Machida having dominated the stand up and I&#8217;ve yet to see any proof of that at all.</p>
<h3>I&#8217;m just glad the other judges on the panel saw it the same way and I&#8217;m sure the fans who understand the technicalities of the sport agree with the decision too</h3>
<p>Despite one judge scoring it exactly how Cecil did, the other judge scored two rounds differently.  That&#8217;s 40%.  If I am in a relationship where we disagree 40% of the time, I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;d call us &#8220;compatible&#8221; and clearly we do not &#8220;see things the same way&#8221;.</p>
<p>Additionally, I want it clear that it&#8217;s not Shogun fans that are complaining here.  It&#8217;s not his mom.  The crowd in attendance was *VERY* much in favor of Machida.  At several points during the fight you can hear them cheering for him.  Yet somehow the boos come pouring into the ring once it&#8217;s announced he is the winner.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve followed MMA for a long time and I can admit when I get it wrong.  Sadly, I still see no evidence that me, most of the fans in attendeance, most of the professional MMA writers, most of well everyone got it wrong.  </p>
<p>I read the interview hoping for a better understanding.  I&#8217;ve re-watched the fight several times.  I&#8217;ve looked at the stats and talked to everyone I could.  Sadly, I still have no closure and that&#8217;s why the voices haven&#8217;t shut up yet.  If this interview had shed some light on the scoring system I&#8217;d have been happier.  Instead I get told lies like &#8220;Leg kicks can&#8217;t end fights&#8221;.  Yet again, SERIOUS-FUCKING-LY!?!?!</p>
<h2>Hopefully some quiet</h2>
<p>That&#8217;s about all I&#8217;ve got.  Hopefully I can get back to work now and put all of this behind me.  I think it&#8217;s sad and scary and shitty and a bunch of other &#8220;s&#8221; words how this all played out.  Cases like this are becoming more and more common and nothing seems to be getting done.  The &#8220;10 point must system&#8221; is a horrible way to score MMA, but nothing gets done.  The three judge system has serious flaws (including those allowed to judge).  The athletic commissions don&#8217;t seem to care and some fans have sadly gotten to the point where they don&#8217;t either.</p>
<p>If MMA is going to be seen as a legitimate sport and not just some barbaric spectacle then things need to change.  The rules need to be updated, they need to be clearer and the oversight needs to be stronger.  If the commission genuinely feels that &#8220;nothing&#8221; was wrong with the decision then a vast majority of fans (new and old) clearly need to be reeducated about the sport they are watching.</p>
<p>As a final plea I yet again request that scoring information be made available between rounds.  At least that way the fans could have boo&#8217;d sooner and I could have went looking for sex after the third round when the judges&#8217; scorecards showed that even if he won the last two rounds Shogun still would have lost the fight.  I mean, I know at the end of the third I was prettttyyyyyyyy sure Shogun had totally lost that fight, but I wasn&#8217;t absolutely certain.  If only I could have seen the scorecards to confirm it.  /boggle</p>
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		<title>Kimbo Slice is not a disappointment</title>
		<link>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/kimbo-slice-is-not-a-disappointment/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/2009/kimbo-slice-is-not-a-disappointment/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:50:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>evil pooh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kimbo slice]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mma-elo.com/rants/?p=44</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I should probably add &#8220;to me&#8221; at the end of the title. There is no doubt many are disappointed with Kimbo as following this week&#8217;s TUF episode I saw a whole new round of Kimbo hate start to circulate. I am far from a Kimbo Slice nuthugger, but I am left a little confused at [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I should probably add &#8220;to me&#8221; at the end of the title.  There is no doubt many are disappointed with Kimbo as following this week&#8217;s TUF episode I saw a whole new round of Kimbo hate start to circulate.  I am far from a Kimbo Slice nuthugger, but I am left a little confused at this point by some of the Kimbo Slice hate going around.  There is no doubt Kimbo&#8217;s performance wasn&#8217;t amazing, but was there any real reason to expect it to be?  </p>
<p>Make no mistake about it, I am very disappointed.  I&#8217;m disappointed with some promoters, I&#8217;m disappointed with some sites and I&#8217;m really disappointed with some &#8220;fans&#8221;.  Overall though, I really don&#8217;t see a reason to be disappointed by Kimbo.</p>
<p>Instead of just blindly bashing on Kimbo I&#8217;d like to take an honest look at his career thus far and see <strong>why Kimbo Slice is overrated.</strong></p>
<p><span id="more-44"></span></p>
<h2>Kimbo Slice&#8217;s MMA Career</h2>
<p>Let&#8217;s start by taking a look at <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=19725">Kimbo Slice&#8217;s</a> actual MMA record and see how his career has played out thus far.</p>
<h3>Kimbo Slice Vs Bo Cantrell</h3>
<p>Kimbo&#8217;s first MMA fight was on 2007-11-10 against <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=516">Bo Cantrell</a>.  A string of four losses put Bo at 10-10 with just over a 1500 rating.  Although not overly impressive this was Kimbo&#8217;s first fight and in theory wasn&#8217;t a horrible opponent choice.  </p>
<p>Sadly, the fight was really bad.  Bo clearly had no interest in fighting and many think he literally threw the fight.</p>
<h3>Kimbo Slice Vs David &#8220;Tank&#8221; Abbott</h3>
<p>About three months after his debut Kimbo got back into competition by taking on <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=305">Tank Abbott</a>.  I will admit I&#8217;m going to use my fingers to make sure I get this right, but heading into the fight &#8220;Tank&#8221; had&#8230;</p>
<p>-  Lost 3 in a row<br />
-  Lost 7 of his last 8<br />
-  Lost 9 of his last 12<br />
-  Lost 10 of his last 14</p>
<p>&#8230;OK you get the picture.  The fight wasn&#8217;t exactly built to be Fedor Vs Odin.  However, Tank had lost so much lately that he was actually the underdog against a 1-0 fighter.  Not exactly competitive matchmaking at its finest.  Still, lots had requested the fight, so good for them.</p>
<h3>Kimbo Slice Vs James Thompson</h3>
<p>Another three(ish) months pass and Kimbo is again back to work.  This time he is set to face <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=193">James Thompson</a>.  Here we go again, Thompson had&#8230;</p>
<p>-  Lost 2 in a row<br />
-  Lost 3 of his last 4<br />
-  Lost 6 of his last 8</p>
<p>Prior to that James had actually put together a six fight win streak against fighters most had never heard of before (or since).</p>
<p>Much like the Redrum fight to start Kimbo&#8217;s career this one had some controversy surrounding it.  There was a modest (insane?) portion of the fight that basically came down to Thompson on top of Kimbo slapping him with unanswered &#8220;shots&#8221;.  Eventually the round ended and Kimbo managed to get a stoppage victory after that.</p>
<h3>Kimbo Slice Vs Ken Shamrock</h3>
<p>Kimbo&#8217;s last professional fight was set to take place against Ken Shamrock about four months after his fight with Thompson.  Here come the fingers again, Shamrock had&#8230;</p>
<p>- Lost 5 in a row<br />
- Lost 7 of his last 8<br />
- Lost 8 of his last 10</p>
<p>That put Ken&#8217;s rating at the time around 1577.  This again meant Kimbo Slice was actually going to be the favorite, despite having a &#8220;soft&#8221; 3-0 record.  However, before the fight started Ken got Akuma&#8217;d and a new challenger appeared&#8230;</p>
<h3>Kimbo Slice Vs Seth &#8220;Akuma&#8221; Petruzelli</h3>
<p>Talk about a crazy step up in competition.  <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=311">Seth Petruzelli</a> wasn&#8217;t exactly a &#8220;top 10&#8243; guy, but he had:</p>
<p>-  Won his last fight!<br />
-  Won 2 of his last 3<br />
-  Won 9 of his last 11</p>
<p>In fact, heading into the fight Seth had a rating of 1677&#8230;that&#8217;s a full 100 points higher than Ken&#8217;s.  This was also high enough to make him the favorite over Kimbo.</p>
<p>As far as the fight goes&#8230;well the &#8220;Instant Hell Murder&#8221; looked a bit different in real life than I&#8217;d recalled from the game, but it was just about as effective.  Seth won and &#8220;shocked the world&#8221;.  In so much as you can be shocked when the favorite actually wins a fight.  /boggle</p>
<h3>Kimbo Slice Vs Roy Nelson</h3>
<p>Following the loss Kimbo went quiet for a bit (fans kept talking though), and eventually he emerged on The Ultimate Fighter Season 10.  In his first fight early into the season he got matched up again <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=640">Roy &#8220;Big Country&#8221; Nelson</a>.  As a quick tangent am I the only one that has to catch themselves accidentally inserting &#8220;belly&#8221; for &#8220;country&#8221; sometimes?  </p>
<p>Anyway, after losing to a 1600(ish) rated fighter over a year ago that he outweighed it seems intuitive that Kimbo would now be paired against an 1800(ish) rated fighter that has been in and out of the top 20 for awhile and outweighed Kimbo by 30+ pounds (15kg).  In fact, three of Nelson&#8217;s four losses are against guys that have been top 10 (maybe top 15 if you really want to avoid an argument) in recent years.</p>
<p>The fight basically alternated between two phases.  Phase 1, weak stand up.  Phase 2, Kimbo on his back getting slapped in the head.  There were some transitions in between.  Some might add a third phase between those two and call it &#8220;struggle for a take down&#8221; phase, but regardless, that was pretty much the entire fight.</p>
<h2>Why Kimbo Slice Is Overrated</h2>
<p>Looking at the above I hope it&#8217;s clear why I&#8217;m confused.  It seems lots are disappointed in Kimbo at this point, but I honestly don&#8217;t see a reason why.  Instead my disappointment lies elsewhere.  Let&#8217;s look at all parties involved.</p>
<h3>Kimbo Slice</h3>
<p>The man himself got into the ring against who he was matched up against and fought at an acceptable frequency.  He beat the people he was realistically expected to beat and lost to some people he was expected to lose against.  That seems to be the bulk of what is asked of a fighter, so I really fail to find much fault with it.</p>
<h3>The promoters</h3>
<p>The promoters (and/or matchmakers) really did a bad job in my opinion.  Kimbo&#8217;s opponents were consistently sub par right up until they were over his head.  It&#8217;s one thing to start a fighter off slow, but people were placing far too much emphasis on who Kimbo was actually beating and what it really meant.  </p>
<p>Looking at the opponents he was matched up against it&#8217;s clear people were more interested in building &#8220;Kimbo&#8221; as a name, than as a real mixed martial artist.  This leads to&#8230;</p>
<h3>The MMA Fans</h3>
<p>No, not all fans.  Just the fans that buy into what they are told and seem completely unwilling to think for themselves.  The fans that thought Kimbo would beat Fedor and the fans that are disappointed a 3-1 1600 rated fighter lost to a 13-4 1800 rated fighter.</p>
<p>This is really where <strong>Kimbo Slice becomes overrated</strong>.  It&#8217;s not because of what he&#8217;s done, it&#8217;s not because of what others have tried, it&#8217;s because of what the fans keep claiming and expecting.  </p>
<p>Looking at the above it&#8217;s clear that Kimbo Slice is an inexperienced fighter with a very suspect 3-1 record.  Looking at his fight tape it is clear he has gaping holes in his MMA game.  Yet despite all of that some people still insist on trying to make him into more than he is.</p>
<p>Kimbo Slice is obviously not the only fighter this happens to either.  <a href="http://www.mma-elo.com/me_hist.php?fighter=8">Fedor</a> is 30-1 and hasn&#8217;t lost in almost 9 years, but some fans actually overrate him too.  I know some will say that Fedor is the best, but being the best doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t be overrated as well.  If the &#8220;best&#8221; pitcher in baseball throws 105mph and some idiot &#8220;fan&#8221; is claiming he throws 120mph and strikes out everyone on 3 pitches&#8230;guess what!?</p>
<h2>Kimbo Slice parting thoughts</h2>
<p>Kimbo Slice could have faced some better opponents along the way, and if he had he may have lost more.  Really though nothing that has happened thus far has been a disappointment unless your expectations were too high.  I have seen almost nothing from Kimbo that leads me to believe he is currently underachieving.  Rather, I see heaps of proof that many have their expectations set far too high.  Just like a parent that can&#8217;t accept their child isn&#8217;t meant for law school some fans are forcing expectations on Kimbo and living on false hope.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying Kimbo can&#8217;t improve, and to be honest I actually see some potential for him.  However, the way it is and the way it&#8217;s been is that <strong>Kimbo Slice is way more popular than good</strong>.  If you like him and his story or his style or whatever, then go out there and cheer for him and support him.  I have no problem at all with that.  What I do have a problem with are fans that try to inflate what he&#8217;s done and boast about what he will do only to turn around and scold him for not living up to their expectations.</p>
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