1) *ZUFFA* purchased Strikeforce

The first thing that needs to be clarified is that the UFC’s parent company purchased Strikeforce. The “UFC” did *NOT* purchase “Strikeforce”.

Tons of the chatter I see continues to ignore this key detail. There are a lot of parent companies out there that own multiple companies that operate within the same industry.

Look at Wendy’s and Arby’s. Look at Yum! foods that has Pizza hut and Taco Bell and KFC. Activision/Blizzard, etc.

Certainly it’s possible we’ll see a WEC style merger at some point. However, that is not what we currently have going on.

Remember wayyyy back when “UFC” bought “Pride”? Remember how Dana kept talking about how he tried to get deals going, and then explained that at least he got the pride library and that was still valuable to him.

MMA is a global sport with incredible growth potential and Zuffa clearly has a lot of resources. It will be interesting to see what they think provides the most value.

2) What is the “UFC”?

This might sound silly, but a lot of people don’t realize that the UFC is an MMA organization and is primarily a brand.

What the UFC isn’t

Fighters – The fighters can go anywhere and fight. Whether they come from Strikeforce, go to Strikeforce, head to Bellator or whatever else.

Rules – The rules are basically state mandated with minimal variations.

Refs/Judges – State certified in most cases.

Arena – The “octagon” is hardly unique at this point and actually has a couple current variations as I recall.

What the UFC is!

So what does that leave us?

Well, the UFC is a production. The color scheme, the intros, the commentators, that’s all “UFC” through and through.

You know what else the UFC is? It’s a business. The fighters it signs, the events it schedules, the business plan it follows. Which leads us too…

3) The “UFC” Model

Probably the biggest fear I have regarding Zuffa purchasing Strikeforce is if we’ll see shifts in Strikeforce’s business model.

Exclusive Contracts

Probably one of the biggest things you see with UFC fighters is they are much more restricted in what they can do. With Strikeforce you saw fighters from other organizations, you saw fighters compete in K-1 and other sports.

There is a very fundamental difference between what a Strikeforce fighter could previously do and what many UFC fighters have been allowed to do.

Popular over Good

Historically you can see lots of cases where the UFC treats different fighters differently. Fighters that are popular move up the ranks faster, fighters that mess up and aren’t as beloved get scolded harder, etc.

Strikeforce doesn’t have a major history here, but little clues like Josh Barnett being in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix while Dana White for the UFC says no one cares about him.

If it don’t make dollars, it don’t make sense!

Finally, the UFC shows a bias toward making money. Obviously, they are a business and need to make money to stay in the game. However, as I’ve discussed several times, there comes a point where you have to act like a legitimate organization and let the sport do more of the driving.

The UFC has a very financially successful business model in regards to hyping fighters, their churn rate, their costs per event, etc.

Make no mistake about it, if I were investing money in an MMA company I’d be making it rain on Dana White.

4) SUPERFIGHTS!!111!!1oneone1!!1

Probably the most unrealistic hype I see surrounding the purchase of Strikeforce by Zuffa are these amazing superfights we are now going to get!

Really? Which fighters didn’t the UFC have the ability to negotiate and sign previously?

Notice how much excitement the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix has garnered. Yet Werdum signed a better deal with Strikeforce, Fedor negotiations broke down, Arlovski moved on, Barnett “isn’t cared about”, etc.

This again comes back to what the “UFC” really is, what their business model is and how Zuffa’s acquisition of Strikeforce will impact Strikeforce’s business model.

I find it very troubling that “UFC Fans” have basically been brain washed into believe that super fighters only happen if the UFC controls everything.

I bet dollars to donuts that UFC and Strikeforce could have worked out a deal to have two UFC heavyweights in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix. Remember Chuck going over to fight in Pride?

With the limited time Strikeforce had some of the spotlight we saw Aoki come over from Japan, we saw Diaz head over and fight Mach, we have Kawajiri setup against El Nino.

There’s no reason that we couldn’t see Overeem Vs JDS. See Brock Vs Fedor, see Machida Vs Mousassi, etc.

You don’t need the same parent company for that, you just need smart people running things to put some value on the fans and the sport and just a tidge less on the bottom line.

More questions than answers

At this point I think we really are left with more questions than answers. We don’t know how long before a merger, if a merger even happens. Maybe Strikeforce will be maintained for it’s “challengers’ series” and on cable to help drive sales and pay-per-views for larger events.

Maybe we will get some super fights, but didn’t we get some of those when Pride was aquired? To that end, couldn’t we have had them anyway?

What about the fighters? Strikeforce gave fighters like Mousassi (who likes to compete non-exclusively), Daley (sucker punch!), and Barnett (nobody cares) a place to compete at a high level and for fans of the sport to see them compete. If a merger happens, if negotiating strategies or business strategies change, what will happen in the future?

I think a lot of people need to step back at this point and really think about what this might mean. Forget the hype and the branding and all of the propaganda and really think.

What does this make possible that wasn’t possible before?

What did we possibly lose that might have previously been possible?

Is this good for the fans?

Is this good for the fighters?

Is this good for the sport!?

Like I said, more questions than answers…

Fedor

Obviously, I have to start by talking about Fedor Vs Rogers. In recent days I’ve seen several of my pre-fight fears realized.

The Fedor Standard

I’m not usually the one to make bold sweeping statements, but at this point in time I have to say that Fedor is currently held to a higher standard than any other professional athlete on the planet! Such a statement seemed silly to me, but I gave it some more thought and actually compared the Fedor standard against that of other fighters, and other athletes/teams across various sports.

The standard that Fedor is now held to is akin to the Steelers defense not being able to give up a first down. Not a TOUCHdown, a FIRSTdown! The standard that Fedor is now held to in MMA is expecting Tiger woods to never bogey a single hole in golf. Not one, in fact, “par” might not even be good enough if Tiger were held to the same standard as Fedor.

In his fight against Rogers, Fedor was cut by a jab to start the fight, he was held against a cage and given a few knee strikes, and absorbed several seconds of GnP.

In exchange for this Fedor got Rogers to the ground multiple times, Fedor went Matrix on Rogers against the cage, Fedor went for an armbar that almost ended the fight, went for a Kimura that almost ended the fight, and OH THAT’S FUCKING RIGHT TKO’D ROGERS IN THE *SECOND* ROUND.

Clearly I saw this coming, obviously I knew not to have faith in humans (hope I never become one, being a Pooh is much better). Honestly though, what more do you want from a fighter!? The fact that Fedor got hit by a standing strike from a heavyweight striker is unacceptable? Is he supposed to dodge everything!? The fact that Fedor was pressed against the cage by someone more than 30lbs heavier than them is unacceptable?!? The fact that Fedor didn’t finish the fight in the first round is unacceptable!?

The Cut

Fedor was cut by a pawing Jab. He’s been cut before (see Lindland fight, TK “loss”, etc.). This isn’t news, this wasn’t Fedor being exposed.

Fedor Controlled

According to the tale of the tape Fedor was about 32lbs lighter than Rogers, was 5(ish) inches shorter and gave up 7? inches of reach. With that stacked against him, some still claim that Rogers controlled him against the cage. Mind you, Rogers didn’t get him to the ground, he didn’t break him open further with dirty boxing, he didn’t actually end the fight or anything. It’s amazing how people will usually boo fights against the cage and on the ground, but if it’s Fedor against the cage it’s proof of total domination.

Second round stoppage!

One of the things that always amazes me about the Fedor hate is how people act like Fedor pulled out the victory in the 11th hour. Fedor haters always seem to make it sound like Fedor was getting dominated the entire fight and then in the last 10 seconds…at that last possible moment he got lucky and landed a big shot. Here’s how some fights breakdown:

Fedor was getting “dominated” by Rogers (ya know, except for the sub attempts, the bigger shots, and despite a cut on his nose appearing to be more relaxed) until 1:48 of the *SECOND ROUND*.

For the Fedor Vs Arlovski fight we see Fedor “dominated” for….Three Minutes and Fourteen seconds. That equates to roughly 13% of the entire fight.

Lets take a look at Fedor Vs Lindland. The big opening shot, the grappling…Lindland “dominated” Fedor for….Two Minutes and Fifty-Eight Seconds! (if it was 5, 5 minute rounds, I’m not certain on this one) that’s less than 12% of the fight. Either way Lindland despite landing the first punch, and opening a cut on Fedor still couldn’t make it out of the first round!

What I don’t understand is when MMA became overtime in the NFL. When the first person to land a kick or punch or cut or whatever was the “winner”. People keep trying to bash on Fedor by saying he was “losing”, by claiming he was “dominated”, by claiming people “almost had him”, but the numbers show that Rogers lasting almost 1/4 of the fight is the best anyone has done in almost 4 years! During that time span you also have three fights that didn’t even last two minutes and two that ended in less than a minute!

This just seems like another one of those cases where people are so desperate to bash on Fedor that what they say only seems to make Fedor seem more insane. Of course he’s been touched in the ring, of course he doesn’t always finish fights in the first round, heck yeah I think he will lose soon. Despite that, I still think there is little consolation in my trainer looking at me after a fight going “great job not getting laid out until the second round!”

Rogers

Brett didn’t get enough credit going into the fight and sadly many seem to be downplaying what he’s done even more since losing to Fedor. Other people seem to be giving Rogers more credit even though he lost. Similar to how some viewed AA following his loss to Fedor. Which, again, seems like a huge compliment to Fedor.

The biggest thing about Rogers that leaves me baffled is when I see statements like, “Rogers shouldn’t go to the UFC because he’d lose to Lesnar, Cain and Carwin”. Why this confuses me so much is because even if it’s true he’d lose to those three people, that’s still not a reason he shouldn’t be there.

What some people seem to do is act as though being unable to hold the belt means you have no right to compete. Even if Rogers would never hold a belt that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be a professional fighter. There are plenty of teams in the NFL/MLB/etc that haven’t won a title in a long time. Why is it fighters like Justin McCully are accepted in the UFC for numerous fights, but someone like Rogers is shunned.

The fact is Rogers has a style many like to see, he finishes his fights, he’s got a solid record and he actually seems to be improving. On top of all that, lets look at the “top 10″ UFC heavyweights…

- Brock
- Mir
- Nog
- Cain
- Carwin
- JDS
- Cro Cop?
- Gonzaga?
- Rothwell?
- Kongo?

That’s in no particular order, but most consider cro cop washed up. Gonzaga is flaky as hell in the ring and lots didn’t even want Rothwell in the UFC to begin with. Do people honestly think Rogers is incapable of being competitive against any of the fighters listed above? What about against fighters like Berry, Hardonk, Gromley, Struve, and the other heavyweights we’ve seen in recent cards.

This isn’t about Rogers specifically, or even about the UFC. What it’s about is that some fans seem to think if you can’t win the belt you shouldn’t compete at all. There are some people that fail to realize how good fighters like Nate, Kampmann, and many others are. When you are talking about a fighter being “good” it doesn’t mean you put them #1 or think they can beat everyone. It means you think they provide legitimate competition to some fighters and in most cases that the matches would be interesting to watch.

Fedor…the can *MAKER*

Probably the biggest fear following a loss to Fedor is the “can status” tag. Another common misconception in MMA is that losing two fights in a row means you are a washed up, has been, never was, scrub. Following AA’s fight against Fedor he was highly regarded, some wanted a rematch, and then when he lost to Rogers (of all people) he was almost universally bashed. Years of good fights, thrown right out the window and instead replaced with bashing about his “glass jaw”.

Tim Sylvia was claimed to be the counter to Fedor by some people for years. He finally fights Fedor coming off a loss to Big Nog (two fighters both ranked higher than him) and suddenly he’s a no body. Obviously the loss to Mercer didn’t help, but Timmy was already so hated it really didn’t matter much.

As another “MMA wide” thing people need to realize, losses happen! Even if a fighter has an 80% chance of beating two fighters, that still means they have about a 1 in 25 chance of losing both matches back to back. Understand that an 80% chance to win is crazy high for MMA and that “flukes” happen. Rogers wasn’t really expected to beat Fedor and even if he loses his next match, it doesn’t mean he’s washed up. It doesn’t mean Fedor was beating up a can, and it doesn’t mean Rogers should retire.

Depending on who is chosen as Rogers next opponent odds are pretty good that it will be almost a coin flip between who wins/losses the fight. The fact that Rogers lost to Fedor (someone he was almost universally expected to lose against) shouldn’t tarnish his reputation.

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Despite all of the Fedor Vs Rogers clamor I almost started this rant by talking about Sok. He is an incredibly talented fighter, but things just aren’t going right. I know some will be upset by some of what I’m about to say, but please understand it comes from a place of respect and a place of hope.

I don’t want to see Sok fight another elite fighter for a year

Whether you call it “top 10″ or “1900 rated” or whatever, I just don’t want to see it. Sok burst onto the scenes in February of 2007 with a huge win over Lil Nog. He returned April of that year to defeat Arona. Since that time Sok has gone 3 and 4 with his best win coming against Kazuhiro Nakamura.

Potential Vs Performance

A common discussion on this site is that of MMA potential Vs MMA performance. If you look at Sok’s striking, his athleticism, his grappling pedigree, there is no doubt he can be a scary guy. However, when we look at performance we see that prior to the two big wins in Pride he got TKO’d by Glover.

Following those two wins a lot of people immediately put him top 10 and had him leap frog a bunch of people. Despite only being 4-1 in his early career Sok was immediately “one of the best LHW in the world”. What followed was a loss to Machida, a win against Nak, a loss to Cane and a loss to Babalu.

The problem is despite the losses, Sok was still being given these upper tier fights because of his potential. I honestly think it’s hindered his natural progression and resulted in him under performing.

People need to realize that fight outcome seldom changes potential. If you are ranking on “potential” then Sok will be a top 10 fighter loss after loss after loss. However, sport doesn’t work like that and outcome does matter. For that reason, and many others, I want to see Sok get back on the winning track.

Climbing the MMA ranks

Great fighters early in their career often have several fights they are “expected” to win. It’s because they are newer and despite being the (heavy) favorite there’s still a lot they can gain from the fight. When we look at fighters like Cain, like Fitch, and many others we see a natural progression in their fights. A fighter like Jon Jones is an excellent example of a fighter with huge potential that took a half dozen or so fights early in their career and then started to really climb the MMA ranks.

With Sok, we don’t see that natural progression. Sok had two wins against people most have never heard of, a loss to Glover, and then a flash KO of Lil Nog immediately made him “top 10″. Sok leapfrogged hundreds of other fighters and in doing so missed out on a lot of experience. In those early fights an MMA fighter will find themselves in positions they didn’t expect. They will find their opponent doesn’t go down quite as quickly as they expect. They will learn how to win.

The contrast between Sok and a fighter like Fedor is very evident. On a night where Fedor got his nose opened up to a jab and was being grinded against the cage by a larger man, they never lost their composure. Fedor wiped blood from his face a couple of times, he stayed calm, he stayed focus and he came back to win. In many of Sok’s losses you see him showing the potential to win, but once he fails to win early, things seem to fall apart.

In the fight with Banha Sok showed his early fury, and then puttered out. In the fight with Machida Sok appeared frustrated (it happens), and never really accomplished much in the fight. This recent fight against Mousasi saw a fairly competitive opening round, but things quickly went south.

Not just Sok

As I said, I know some people won’t want to hear this, but it’s not like Sok is the only one this has happened to. Although not as bad Napao was in a situation where a big win threw him into the top 10. He put down Cro Cop and then found himself in the ring with a very experienced heavyweight. In that fight his nose was busted open and he actually attempted to call timeout. He struggled, and eventually just plain quit. Following that loss he was immediately thrown into the cage against Werdum (someone who had already beaten him once).

Following those back to back losses Napao was given a clear step down in competition. I think the same thing is what needs to happen to Sok at this point. I have no doubt that he *could* beat almost anyone, but I also realize he’s likely to lose. For me, I’d rather see Sok take four or five fights over the next year, beat some quality (but not elite) fighters and actually learn how to win. Not just early, not just with power, but with heart and determination and confidence in himself. Sok is still young and I don’t think it’s too late for him to get back on the right track.

For those that wonder, yes Sok could just keep fighting higher tiered fighters and get his groove back that way. However, even major league players use a pitching machine at times, they still take batting practice. Sok could try to “shoot himself” out of the slump like an NBA player, but it seems far riskier.

Right now Sok has the 12th hardest strength of schedule in MMA history and a current rating below that strength of schedule. In fact, his max rating ever is only a single point above his strength of schedule. He is now 7-5 after being 4-1. If nothing else, let him win some fights and build himself back up a bit so that when he does win it’s not a “huge upset” that poorly reflects on the fighter he beats. Sok has the potential to be amazing, and I’d really enjoy seeing his performances live up to it.

Gegard

Gegard is an interesting contrast to Sok because of their very different paths through the MMA ranks.

Activity

One of the things that really seems to separate Gegard from other fighters is his desire to fight. I know that might sound silly, but look at his career thus far…

2003 – 3 fights…first fight ever wasn’t until April
2004 – 2 fights…first of the year wasn’t until September
2005 – 7 fights
2006 – 6 fights
2007 – 3 fights…all within about 3 months
2008 – 6 fights
2009 – 3 fights

Now obviously not all of those fights were against top notch competition, but some of them were. Additionally, Mousasi has competed in K-1 fights and practiced other disciplines during this time.

Climbing the MMA ranks

It’s interesting to contrast how Sok and Gegard climbed the MMA ranks. Sok busted onto the scene following a couple big wins. Mousasi on the other hand has been steadily climbing the ranks for years. He fought in several smaller shows, went 2-1 in pride, won the dream MW GP, and is in the middle of a 14 fight win streak.

Some people seem to hold those weaker fights against Gegard, but what people need to understand is that every fight is a chance to learn. Those fights are also chances to be tested or even lose.

Ceiling?

I’ve heard that Mousasi plans to go all the way to heavyweight, but I’m not sure I see that working out very well. We are seeing more and more large heavyweights and the days of heavyweights like Cro Cop and Fedor appear to be nearing an end.

Perhaps we’ll see an additional weight class created to breakup the gap between 205 and 265, but if not I think Gegard would do well to stay at 205.

Next up?

I’m very curious to see who Gegard fights in his next couple of fights. We’ve heard rumors that Dan Henderson is signed now with Strikeforce, but I haven’t seen anything offical. That could be a pretty interesting fight. I also know Gegard has expressed interest in boxing as well, so we’ll have to see which sport his next fight takes place in.

Jake Shields

Speaking of ceilings. I’m honestly not sure how well 185 is going to continue to work for Shields. He has done well and can cause problems for fighters, but he is obviously at a disadvantage compared to fighting at welterweight. Sadly, despite fighting at the higher weight class Shields continues to garner boo’s and is shown a lack of respect.

Shields is boring

One of the main problems people seem to have with shields is that he’s very much a ground fighter. Where this gets confusing is that being a “ground fighter” shouldn’t naturally be a strike against someone. Look at a fighter like Demian Maia.

Clearly being a guy that prefers the fight on the ground isn’t automatic cause to hate a fighter. Maybe it’s because of decisions…

Jake – 24 wins…11 decisions
Randy Couture – 16 wins…7 decisions

When you add in the fact that 8 of Jake’s last nine wins had come via sub/(t)ko, I don’t think that’s the issue.

Also, when looking at the Miller fight understand that Shields was giving up a fair amount of size that Miller doesn’t really get finished. In fact, when we look at Mayhem we see 22 wins and 7 loses. In those 29 fights (one no contest) Mayhem has lost exactly twice by stoppage. Trigg won via TKO about three years ago and Todd Carney got a Guillotine choke over seven years ago (in his next fight Mayhem induced a towel stoppage from Carney’s corner).

That means Shields had finished eight fights in a row, he fought a guy bigger than him that even GSP went to decision against and…Shields is boring because of this?

I think what makes this more confusing to me is that I happened to catch a replay of Hughes Vs Trigg recently on TV. The fight has a lot of ground action and the crowd at that time actually seems to be responding to it in a positive manner. For example, there’s no immediate boo’s from the crowd when the fight hits the ground, there seems to be informed reaction when a position is changed or a sweep is attempted.

That Hughes Vs Trigg fight was almost 6 years ago at this point, but people seemed more informed of the ground game back then. I actually saw someone claim that the Shields Vs Miller fight was “devoid of Jujitsu”. Clearly this person thinks it takes years to earn a blackbelt because it’s hard to master the rear-naked choke and the armbar…obviously the only two techniques offered by the discipline.

Look, I’m not saying Shields Vs Miller was the best fight ever. What I am questioning is how it can be viewed so poorly and how Shields can be blamed for the majority of it. Everyone seems to blame the guy on top for not letting the fighter on the bottom get up. Why isn’t the fighter on the bottom ever blamed for just sitting there and not trying anything and possibly exposing a limb? Do people honestly think we should get to a point where fighters don’t bother training takedown defense or much for sub defense because all they have to do is tie the guy up for 15 seconds and get a standup?

Yes, there was some good

I know sometimes I tend to rant on the “doom and gloom” side of things, but there was a lot of good from the event as well. Several people e-mailed me about the fights that had never watched a whole MMA event before, the event drew solid ratings and despite many disliking the Shields Vs Miller fight I received several comments from people who were “surprised the ground game could be so back and forth”.

I hope you enjoyed the event and I hope you enjoyed the rant. 8)

Fedor Haters

Some of my biggest concerns center around Fedor’s fight and the inevitable aftermath. The way I see it we have two likely situations that aren’t very appealing and anything outside of those two are even worse.

If Fedor Wins

If Fedor wins he’ll be called a can smasher by some “MMA fans”. These are primarily the people that didn’t think he was great back in Pride, didn’t think he’d beat Tim, didn’t think he’d beat AA and still gave him almost no credit for either of those wins.

Here’s the deal, if Fedor hasn’t “proven” himself to some people yet he never will. Think about it, he’s beaten Big Nog twice (GOOD big nog). He’s beaten a prime Cro Cop (Scary cro cop!). He has a highlight reel that showcases almost every aspect of MMA: striking, submissions, grappling, etc.

If people aren’t capable of acknowledging how incredible Fedor is and how unprecedented what he already has accomplished is, then there is no way they will after he beats an opponent most of the same people also underestimate.

If Fedor Loses

Everyone loses eventually in MMA, and Fedor has been on an insane run for a very long time. Even armed with the knowledge that everyone loses there are some that continue to wait for Fedor to have even the slightest slip up so they can “prove” he isn’t as good as others said.

As silly as it may seem, some will use a loss to Rogers as evidence that Fedor was overrated years ago and continues to be overrated today.

If something “else” happens

If anything besides a clean win or loss occurs then things could get even uglier. A bad decision, a potential NC, a “cut” or questionable stoppage. Bleh I can’t even begin to image the fallout from such a finish. Those things would ripple hard not only through the “hardcore” mma fan community, but also to the potential future fans that are tuning in special tonight.

Shields Haters

Though not nearly as big an issue as the Fedor haters, the Jake Shields haters are about as reasonable. Shields is someone that seems to constantly get no respect. Much like Fedor a win or a loss here won’t “define” his career. Just take a look at:

Jake Shields MMA Career

Here are some cliff notes…

- 23wins 4 losses 1draw
- 12 wins in a row
- last loss in December of 2004 (almost 5 years!)
- fights at multiple weight classes
- Wins over fighters like Carlos Condit, Yushin Okami, Nick Thompson, Paul Daley, and Robbie Lawler

There are other names on the list including other guys who’ve been “top 10″, guys who have gotten title shots, etc.

I really think Shields is another one of those guys where I have to claim I just don’t understand. Early in his career I know he leaned on his wrestling more (10 decisions), but his last 8 fights have ended via (t)KO or Sub. What more can you really ask of a fighter? He’s moved up in weight. He’s fought high ranked opponents. He’s finished his fights. I’m not asking people to put him #1 p4p, but there are some that still claim the guy isn’t even top 10.

My Hope

What I hope is that we get great fights tonight. I hope that all in attendance and all watching at home respect the athletes and the sport just a bit more after tonight. Unfortunately I know this isn’t likely to happen. Whether certain fighters win or lose there will be those ready to bash them. Would it be out of line to request that people at least realize that a fighter like Fedor isn’t going to prove his greatness in this one fight. On the same note he isn’t going to corrupt his legacy with this one fight either.

Fighters like Fedor, GSP, Anderson and many others have earned the position they have over many years and many fights. If you can’t acknowledge how incredible what they’ve done already is, then there is seriously no hope. GSP beating Hardy or Swick isn’t going to “solidify his legacy” and although I hope the Rogers fight is good, it won’t even begin to tell the story of Fedor.

Strikeforce – Carano Vs Cyborg

Fight outcomes

Some people are obsessed with fight outcomes as a means of measuring the validity of the system. As I’ve said in the past that is an often flawed approach because the system (and the sport) is much deeper than that.

For those that focus only on direct prediction percentage though, the higher ranked fighter won 8 of the 9 fights on Saturday. In the one fight where the lower ranked fighter won, they are now ranked higher. Doesn’t seem too bad, does it?

I don’t really look at things in those terms though. I see that the case of one fighter “leapfrogging” the other wasn’t because of enforced leapfrogging within the system, but because the fighters were genuinely very evenly matched. That to me speaks to good matchmaking, and to an overall meaningful fight.

Another thing I note is the fight between Melendez and Ishida. It wasn’t that long ago that Ishida beat Melendez and since that win the fighters have both had modest records (2-1 and 3-2). The reason the fight stands out to me is that despite the head-to-head loss previously Melendez was still the higher rated fighter. This makes sense from a logical point of view, from a system point of view, and obviously now from a results point of view.

For some people the sight of a fighter being ranked above someone they’ve directly lost to immediately signals that the site’s system is flawed. These people will complain about Sherk being 11 whole rating points higher than Edgar, yet some of them didn’t mind that Jardine was ranked lower than Forrest. People need to understand that although a direct head-to-head victory has a tremendous impact on where two fighters stand, it does *NOT* immediately invalidate everything else that has happened up to that moment in time.

Note to the Gegard Mousasi bandwagon…YOU’RE LATE!

As with all fighters I’ll say there is no way to know what happens next. Gegard could have peaked and his rating may never go higher. He might get bored, change sports, retire, or continue winning for the next three years. There is really no way to know what will happen in the future.

What we can be relatively sure of though is the past. The fact of the matter is that Gegard has been doing very well for a long time now and most were unwilling to look/listen/think. To hear some people claim Gegard “arrived” by winning a single fight after he won 12 fights in a row, a MW tourney, and jumped weight classes to fight Mark Hunt, just seems silly. There’s no doubt the win over Renato was impressive, but some people obviously should have been paying attention sooner.

Random Answers

As evidenced by the two day late site update, I don’t have a lot of time. I try very hard to answer questions on this site, and even some I get directed to elsewhere. However, your best chance to get a response to an honest question is to post in the forums here or e-mail me. If you genuinely have a question, then I’ll do my best to answer it.

Genuine(ish) Questions
The question of weight classes on the site has come up…again. I’ve responded to this several times in several places, but perhaps it’s time I throw it all together into one big answer. Look for a rant later this week to address why weight classes are handled how they are on this site.

Another question I see raised is that of how unbiased the site is. Let me be clear, the site is only biased towards accuracy. The site is completely unbiased in terms of the fighters themselves and the organizations they fight for. There is nothing that gives Fighter A an inherent advantage over Fighter B. The system evaluates GSP the same way it evaluates Fedor. If you see one fighter with an 1870 rating and another fighter with a 1270 rating you can be certain that if you swapped their fight histories exactly, their ratings would swap as well.

This is very different from some sites where wins mean different things. Sometimes fighters leapfrog, sometimes they don’t, sometimes people move up without ever fighting, sometimes people move down without ever fighting.

I know some like to claim that the site is “biased” based upon the initially selected criteria, but that is simply wrong. To claim it was biased would suggest that I wanted a certain outcome (say, Fighter A ranked highly, or Organization B to have more of the top ranked fighters), I’d then have to re-tune the system variables after almost every fight to ensure that the status quo I wanted was still maintained. Given that the core system variables haven’t changed in quite some time I think it’s safe to say that isn’t the case.

As I said at the top, the system is biased towards accuracy. A rant about system accuracy is on the list (along with a dozen other things), but understand that the values used on the site were chosen because they were the most accurate. By accurate I mean that when the system expects a 60% win%, there is very close to a 60% win percentage. Not that my all-time favorite fighters are cemented at #1 in every weight class and will never move regardless.

In a likely to fail attempt at clarifying the situation lets talk about painting a house. If I were a huge fan of red walls in a house (I had a bias toward the red walls), and was painting the walls of a house and made them red due to my own personal tastes, that would be bias in the sense most understand it. It is a personal bias that is determining how something is done.

The situation here on the site would be akin to me liking red walls, but doing research and knowing that statistically white walls make a house more likely to be sold. Given the intent on selling the house, my “personal bias” is set aside and a decision is made purely based upon supporting evidence.

If people want to get hung up on perceived “bias” they can all they want, but understand that most rational people understand what the term “unbiased” is representing in regards to this site. It means no *PERSONAL* (Evil Pooh) bias, it means no *ORGANIZATION* bias, it means no *FIGHTER* bias, etc. If you want to get hung up on “statistically accurate bias” be my guest, but I pray you have better things to do with your time.

Not so genuine “questions”
Here are a couple comments I’ve seen around the web that were a waste of my time and sadly others I’m sure.

“Elo is basically using MMAth…”

Wow it only took this “author” five words to show they either have no clue what Elo is, or what MMAth is (maybe both *shrugs*). Thank god they are making a comment about…Elo *AND* MMAth!

I’d go into more detail on how wrong this is, but it’s the kind of thing that if I have to explain what’s wrong it’s even worse.

Why I’m Evil Pooh and not Tolerant To Morons Pooh
Another little gem I saw was this “tongue-in-cheek, stick-it-to-the-man, omfg I’m so clever I’m going to jump out of my chair and slam the ‘submit’ button as I post this ownage of a response” that said,

“i just like the elo system because it still has jon fitch ranked high, and he never dipped. AND as it stands now fedor is the only top 10 HW that is outside the UFC and signed with SF. so much for more competition outside the UFC”

Let’s step through this pile of shit turd by turd, shall we?

“Jon Fitch ranked high” – is this a problem? What places don’t have Fitch ranked high?

“and he never dipped” – Simply wrong. It takes clicking one link (shockingly titled “Jon Fitch”) to see that he, in fact, did dip. He lost personal rating when he lost to GSP, he also got “passed” in the sense that other fighters’ ratings improved.

It’s important to keep in mind that a fighter’s rating shows where they stand on a personal level, but a fighter’s “ranking” is determined based upon their rating in relation to other people. As I’ve said before, hitting 50 home runs in a year might sound awesome, but it loses a bit of its shine if the league average is 72 home runs.

“as it stands now fedor is the only top 10 HW that is outside the UFC and signed with SF”

I love the effort put in to tailor the response…”outside the UFC *AND* signed with SF”. Yeah because SF is completely against co-promotion and unless someone is signed to SF this very second there’s no chance they could be one of Fedor’s next three opponents.

“so much for more competition outside the UFC”

This is great because it acts as though the previous skewed comment actually proved something. Note that the previous line used “*AND* signed with SF” and this line says “outside the UFC”. Little known fact, those are actually two different things.

Let’s take a quick look at the current MMA-ELO top 10 heavy weights:

1) Fedor – Ok so out of the top 10, we are down to 9 because he won’t fight himself!
2) Josh Barnett – not in the UFC, was scheduled to fight, could still happen
3) Big Nog – In the UFC, but uhhhh no one is asking for this fight. (Nog even turned a 4th fight down at one point previously)
4) Jeff Monson – Available, and can’t leave the US lol
5) Cro Cop – See Nog
6) Antonio Silva – Not UFC, Has fought in EliteXC
7) Aleks – Brother, won’t happen (still not UFC)
8) Arlovski – Not UFC
9) Ben Rothwell – Now UFC, wasn’t UFC before, somehow went from no chance against Fedor to now being mentioned as part of the UFC’s uber HW stable that Fedor has to come prove himself against.
10) Randy Couture – If he wins this might actually get talked about a bit more

So of the “top 10″ HWs, that’s really 9 because of Fedor himself, the UFC has…4. Of those 4 Fedor has already beaten Two. That means *TWO* of the top 10 HW’s are available in the UFC for Fedor that he hasn’t already beaten. Additionally, one of those two hasn’t even fought in the UFC yet and until signing was bashed as being no competition. Amazing how the original statement basically bashed SF for only having 1 of the “top 10″, but for the intent of the message, the UFC is sitting at 2. (It’s ok, my head hurts too)

What is really interesting is the names people do talk about fighting Fedor are Brock, Carwin and Cain. They have ratings of: 1916, 1864, 1797. Compare those against fighters like Werdum (1903), Overeem(1912), Rogers(1903) and suddenly it does look like Fedor actually has some competition outside the UFC. Note the word “some”, not “more”, not “better”, just a very reasonable, a very logical, a very factual, “some”.

Also note that Fedor is signed for three fights in Strikeforce. Lots can change. Carwin and Cain are about to fight each other that means one is likely to gain rating and one likely to go down. Randy and Nog are about to fight. If Randy wins his stock will go up, if he loses then people probably won’t mention him again. Dos Santos has a fight with Cro Cop (Offical?) that could impact things.

Lots can and will happen in the next year or so. In the next year Brock could win three more fights (and almost double his career total!) and that’d move him up the list a lot. Carwin (or Cain) could remain unbeaten and climb the list.

Maybe in a year or so the UFC will have all of the top 5 or 10 fighters, then this person could actually post an honest, straight forward comment to support their personal opinion instead of the previous pile of crap.

Quick Note
It should really be it’s own rant, but your personal opinion should not dictate how “good” the site is. If your favorite fighter moves up to #1 that doesn’t make the site better. If they lose and drop from #1 that doesn’t make the site worse. If the site is wrong, then it needs to be adjusted, and that is true whether you like how the Top 10 currently looks or not.

If BJ beats Sanchez and moves into #1 don’t suddenly flaunt how BJ is #1 on mma-elo if you’ve been bashing the system because he wasn’t #1 before. If the system was flawed to not have him #1 before, then it’s likely still flawed even if he’s now sitting at #1. On the other hand, if you’ve been following the site and understand that Brock is on the rise, and he continues to win. By all means, cheer his career and note his accomplishments.

One of the real strengths of the site is how consistent it is and whether you like the site, love the site or hate the site, I don’t think it’s asking too much that you show a bit of consistency back to it.

Thanks,
-Evil Pooh