How to calculate Strength of Schedule

Accurately calculating the Strength of Schedule for MMA fighters requires clearly defining what it is you are looking for. I’m a strong believe that many times it is more about the “right stat for you” than the “right stat” in general. While some prefer a pure strength of schedule that is simply calculated by taking the average rating of an MMA fighter’s opponents, others prefer a different approach. For those that prefer the pure calculation please check out MMA Fighters Ranked by Strength of Schedule.

The calculation for strength of schedule used in this rant is what I refer to as the “big game hunter” approach. What we are looking at with this approach is who has won the biggest fights. This approach doesn’t focus on average quality of opposition, but rather on average quality of an MMA fighter’s biggest wins. In order to provide a broader picture I’ll be looking at the BGHSoS(Big Game Hunter Strength of Schedule) at various win totals for MMA fighters.

MMA Strength of Schedule – One Big One

Since we are looking at a fence of a single MMA win, that means our list above basically tells us who had the single biggest win. Here are some random things I found interesting…

Rampage Jackson

Rampage sits at first because of his victory over Chuck Liddell. Although the “Iceman” seems to get a lot of hate these days, it’s hard to deny just how impressive his career was. On the amusing side of things it is interesting to note that Rampage beat Chuck at a time that snapped a seven fight win streak. That win streak is the same streak Chuck started after Rampage beat him about three and a half years earlier. Had rampage lost that first fight, this win over Chuck would have been even more impressive.

Big Nog

Don’t bother looking back over the list…Big Nog isn’t on it. What is interesting though is what a big role he played in it. Big Nog is responsible for Mir at #2, Fedor at #3, and Josh Barnett at #6. I honestly think more than anyone else Nog suffers from Fedor existing. Yes, the losses physically hurt (or should have, you never know with Nog), but Nog is just *THAT* damn good. He is the #2 guy that no one would question as #1 if not for #1 existing. His career is insane, his “style” is inspiring and his impact on MMA is undeniable.

One Hit Wonders

Fighters like Matt Serra (#12), Keith Jardine (#13), Brian Bowles (#17), and Marcus Aurelio (#18) show up on the list due to a single huge win in their careers, but sadly fall off the list once we extend the strength of schedule criteria out to several wins.

Anderson Silva

An MMA fighter that was originally a bit lower than I expected (#21) was Anderson. Once I took a look back at his career though I realized that although MMA fighters like Rich Franklin are amazing wins (and amazing fighters in their own right) they were never quite at the level that say Big Nog was. Don’t worry though, Anderson has a *LOT* of high quality wins and you’ll see his name move up the list soon.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Rematches FTW!

Fedor

Not one, but *TWO* Nogs! Seriously, beating Nog once was enough to get two people into the top 5 on the single win Strength of Schedule list and accounted for three of the top 10. Beating him twice is…crazy. (insert “Russian” joke here if you feel it necessary)

Movers and Shakers

The win over CroCop was huge, but after that there is a big drop off for Gonzaga. Say “Hi” to him at #22 above because it’s the last you’ll see of him in this rant. Perhaps if we re-do this rant in another year he will have gotten another couple of big wins (Will I even still be ranting in a year?).

Also dropping down some is Mir (from #2 to #9). While moving up is Anderson (going from #21 to #11).

MMA Strength of Schedule – Triology!

The Iceman Cometh

It might seem odd, but Chuck finally premiers on the all time strength of schedule ranking list (Big Game Hunter style!) at #16. This is due to his solid wins over solid competition and the fact that several of the “one hit wonders” have now fallen off the list. It may have taken Chuck until “three” to get here, but now he’s here to stay.

Movers and Shakers

Fedor and GSP flip flop at the top of the list. Forrest falls outside the top 5, but still stays high (#8) due to the big wins over Rampage and Shogun. Frank Mir falls to #20, and will be off the remainder of the Strength of Schedule lists that follow. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Barnett, he dropped from #6 to #25, but now appears to be going back up the list (now at #24).

MMA Strength of Schedule – Jimmie Johnson Style

Josh Koscheck

Making his only appearance on any of the strength of schedule lists for this rant is Josh Koscheck at #24. One reason this is interesting is because using a career wide, average strength of opposition (including wins and losses) approach to strength of schedule we see Josh would be #5. This shows how the different approaches can greatly influence the results. Another reason it is interesting is because of how Josh is perceived. It seems like he has to constantly prove he is a top fighter at welterweight and somehow peoples’ dislike of him overshadows his achievements.

Not a whole lot of shaking going on

The top seven spots remain unchanged except for Lyoto and Rampage swapping spots four and five.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Count the biggest wins on one hand

The underrated

Several names on the list might seem out of place to some MMA fans. Fighters like Sonnen (#15), Shields (#17), Sobral (#19), and Hansen (#20) seem to get dissed an inappropriate amount. We are at five fights on our Big Game Hunter Strength of Schedule and these guys are on the list while a lot of bigger name fighters dropped off a couple wins ago.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Perfect 10

Your browser and eyes are likely fine

If the above table looks different than the last few, it’s OK. If the above table looks the same then something is likely wrong with your browser and/or your eyes.

Shinya Aoki

Jumping up to 10 wins (from 5) we see Shinya Aoki climb to the #5 slot. Shinya is so under appreciated it actually goes negative and becomes hate for some people. From talking with most people it seems that his appearance and lack of exposure are two of the biggest problems. Doesn’t it seem kind of strange that a lack of recognition and appearance would both be a problem at the same time?

In terms of recognition it stems not only from people not “getting” Aoki, but them not getting his opponents. Fighters like Hellboy (see above), Shaolin, Alvarez, JZ and others are just scary good fighters. Sadly, many haven’t seen the people Aoki has beaten fight, so it’s hard to give him the credit he deserves.

The issues with appearance stem from Aoki not “looking” like a fighter. He’s rather small looking, he wears flashy pants, and many don’t think he “looks” like he should win. Many of these people are the ones that think Fedor is out of shape, that think Brock is already the greatest HW of all time and that Roy Nelson was the underdog against Schaub.

As sad as it might sound (or as hard as it might be to believe) if Aoki looked a bit different and people had a broader MMA knowledge base then he would show up “p4p” talks and “LW GOAT” talks a *LOT* more often.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Make it an even 15

Flip Flop at the Top

Here after 15 wins we see Anderson take over the top spot (Edging out Fedor whom he was tied with after 10). GSP falls to third. Chuck moves back up into the top 5 (from #6 after 10 MMA wins) and Big Nog jumps all the way to #4 (from #9 after 10 MMA wins) to round out the top 5.

Parting Reminder

Remember that what we are looking at here is average “big” wins at specific limits. Like most stats there are benefits and downsides to using this approach to Strength of Schedule for MMA. Some may find it quite interesting and others may ignore it entirely. Where I think this can be interesting is when people try to use a “weaker” fight as a way to ignore harder fights.

It seems as though some people would rather see a fighter have 2 “big” wins (and possibly a loss), than see a fighter with 3 “big” wins and a couple weaker wins. For some people the wins over “weaker” fighters somehow diminish the wins over stronger opponents.

What about you? Are you a “big game hunter” kind of person, or do you tend to prefer the overall pure Strength of Schedule that factors in loses as well as wins for MMA fighters?

How it’s gonna be

Although I’m not opposed to such a “ranking system” it seems as though it is not universally applied. Let’s take a handful of fighters from various weight classes and look at where they “rank” and then look at their MMA fight history in more detail. The format I’m going to use is very simple, I’m going to pick a fighter, list their MMA ranking(ish), and explore their “top 10″ wins.

Before starting I want to emphasize my respect for all the fighters listed below. I know some might read parts of what follows as fighter bashing, but that is very far from the truth. My intention isn’t to down play a fighter’s history, but rather to show that some fight histories are very impressive even without a slew of “top 10″ wins.

Jon Fitch

Jon Fitch has been ranked #2 or #3 in the welterweight division for awhile now. Going on the above assumption it’d be reasonable to assume he’d beaten some #2 or #3 ranked fighter(s), right? Well, that’s just not true.

Fitch’s “biggest” MMA win?

I mentioned it recently, but many would likely list Thiago Alves as Jon Fitch’s “biggest” win. At the time of the fight though, neither was “top 3″. In recent years they’ve both been number 2 or 3, but over three years ago when they fought neither fighter was getting a title shot for winning the fight.

With Alves out of the way it’s likely that Diego is actually Fitch’s “biggest” win. This can be a little fuzzy though because despite having an almost 2k rating at the time of the fight, Diego had just lost to Koscheck. Even with the loss though Diego was still a “top 10″ fighter on various MMA ranking lists.

Everyone else

Fitch’s most recent victory was over Paulo Thiago. That win isn’t really relevant to this discussion though because Fitch had been considered #2 – #3 (ish) even before the fight. I mention it because it’s a good win for him and I want it clear that this isn’t about saying Fitch isn’t a top welterweight. Rather it’s about shining a light on how he got there.

With Alves explained, Diego granted, and Thiago noted…who’s left? Here are some names…

Gono…Wilson…Larson

Solid names, no doubt! Top 10? hrmmmm…Maybe Gono at one point, maybe Larson peaking in and out at times, but overall? Not really.

Moving past those three we see fighters like:

Luigi Fioravanti, and Josh Burkman

Again, solid fighters, they have a name, they are pro’s, but….top 10?

The point

The point I’m trying to make here is that the “best” fighter Jon Fitch has faced is GSP and he lost to him (badly). Jon Fitch is almost universally considered top 3, but where is the list of even “top 5″ guys he beat to get there? (maybe Diego…Maybe??) Fitch has solid wins on his record (quite a few) and I think it’s clear that he got his ranking not because of three or four “big” wins, but due to a lot of “solid” wins.

Dan Hardy

Staying with the welterweights for a bit (next one too!) we’ll ponder Dan Hardy. “The Outlaw” now finds himself in the “top 5″ on various lists. Since this is only the second person on the list I’m again going to point out that my intention here isn’t to say Dan Hardy shouldn’t be #4(ish), but rather to explore how they got there.

Dan Hardy’s “biggest” MMA Win?

Unlike Fitch I think most can agree that Dan Hardy’s biggest MMA win was his last fight. In his last fight he beat Mike Swick. This win not only moved Hardy up the MMA rankings, but it seems to have secured him a title shot against GSP.

Everyone Else

With Swick accounted for, here are some of the other “big names” that Hardy has beaten…

Gono (yeah, that one), Marcus Davis

To me the trend seems to continue. Gono was top 10(ish) at points, but certainly debated. Davis flirted with top 10, but he certainly wasn’t a staple and he had lost to Mike Swick a year before the Hardy fight.

More of the same?

Dan Hardy is 23-6 (1 NC) and sitting at #4(ish) on most ranking sites, but who are his “Big” wins. Swick was certainly top 10…mmmaaayyyyybbbbbeeee “top 5″, but that’s one fight and Hardy was in the “top 10″ on some MMA ranking lists even before that fight. MMA fighters like Gono and Davis are “solid” wins, but neither is likely to get you a title shot.

Mike Swick

Since we’ve mentioned him a few times, hereeeeeeeee’ssss Mike. Mike sits on most top 10 MMA ranking lists and was top 5 on several prior to the Hardy loss mentioned above.

Mike Swick’s “biggest” MMA win?

Looking over the list I think many would say Marcus Davis. Despite Davis having lost two in a row, it’s important to remember that heading into the fight with Swick he had won 11 fights in a row. Although I won’t give Davis his own section (I should), it’s important to note that his win streak includes fighters like Shonie Carter, Pete Spratt and Paul Taylor. Yes they are names, but I don’t expect a lot of hate mail from failing to call them “top 10″.

Everyone Else

Ok, so Davis is out of the way that leaves us with…

The crow? David had just lost to Franklin (and followed his loss against Swick with a loss to Villasenor), so he “might” have still been top 10 on some MMA Ranking lists (though barely). This fight also happened at middleweight, so what (if any) impact this had on Swick will vary from list to list and person to person.

After the Crow?

Joe Riggs, Josh Burkman, etc.

Some “solid” fighters, some named fighters, some guys you should not take lightly, but “top 10″? Riggs was in and out of the top 10 around that time, so I could see some arguing it. That really becomes part of the issue though, we aren’t talking about wins against Chuck or Nog, we are talking about wins against possibly 8-10(ish) guys that popped on and off the list. Solid wins, no doubt, but not the career defining type of fight some seem to believe.

Play it again…

Swick is a great fighter that I honestly think has the potential to beat almost anyone, but look at the overall situation. He was top 5(ish), a single win away from a title shot and who had he beat? Keep in mind I’m not saying he was smashing cans, but take a minute to honestly look over Mike Swick’s fight history and you’ll see a series of “good” wins, and not a pair of wins over #1 & #2 ranked guys.

Nate “The Great”

I have to stress that I’m talking about Nate at the time of his first fight with Anderson Silva. Over his last few fights Nate has beaten fighters like Maia, Gouveia, and Kampmann. Awesome wins and again, I don’t think many have issue with Nate being “top 5″(ish) right now. What I want to focus on is prior to his fight with Anderson Silva.

Nate’s “Biggest” MMA win…at the time!

This situation is interesting because Nate fought Anderson 2007-07-07. Prior to that date I think there would be a fair amount of discussion regarding who his biggest win was. You’ve got several fighters like Misaki, Salaverry and Doerkson. All “solid” fighters, but lots of fans wouldn’t put any of them “top 10″. Given the time frame we are speaking about I’m inclined to say it was Misaki, but I’d gladly concede I was wrong if someone offered me a cookie.

Skipping to the point

Looking at Nate’s career prior to the Anderson fight we see…solid MMA wins. There are some “names” on the list, some well known fighters, but again…no #1 or even #5 types of guys. Nate was fighting for a title, he was considered “top 10″ by almost everyone, but who were his “big” wins?

For those that might have skipped to this section I again want to emphasize that my purpose here isn’t to claim that Nate didn’t deserve his MMA ranking. My purpose here is to show *HOW* he achieved his MMA ranking. Looking at his opponents prior to the Anderson fight it’s clear most weren’t “top 10″, but yet the overall quality (though not “top 10″) and the quantity was sufficient to get him bumped up the various ranking lists.

Shane Carwin

I’m going to jump up in weight and take a look at Shane Carwin now. The guy has been due to fight for the UFC heavyweight title for several months. He’s almost universally considered “top 10″ (or damn close) and yet…

Shane Carwin’s “Biggest” MMA win?

This one should be almost universally agreed on as being Gonzaga. This was Carwin’s last fight. The interesting thing about Gonzaga is where he “ranks”. Heading into the Carwin fight Gonzaga had won two in a row…but against much weaker competition. Prior to those two wins he had dropped two in a row (to Randy and Werdum).

There are some that will forever claim Gonzaga as “top 10″ for his win over Cro Cop. At the other end of the arguement you have people that see how spotty Gonzaga has been. Most would admit he has “top 10 potential”, but he seems to be unable to put together a great streak.

For the sake of this discussion let’s just say Gonzaga was top 10. Say he was tied and de facto 11 if you need, but just go with me on this please.

Everyone else

I could bet a lot of MMA fans they couldn’t name 3 other people Shane Carwin beat and make a lot of money. I mean a *LOT* of money. To put it in perspective…I can normally name 7 or 8 without looking. Considering Carwin has 11 wins and I’m me…that’s not a good number. I will also point out something I find amusing and that is that Carwin has wins over three fighters who’s records are: 1-2, 1-3, 1-4. It doesn’t mean anything, it just amuses me because I see numbers as shapes. *shrugs*

Honestly, this is *NOT* to bash Shane in anyway. I’m OK with him getting a title shot, I’m OK with him being “top 10″. Seriously though, remove Gonzaga from the list and take a shot at listing 4 or 5 other fighters he’s faced.

Final time

Here we have a contender for the UFC heavyweight title. The Gonzaga win “might” be top 10 and I honestly can’t imagine anyone being able to keep a straight face in telling me anyone else Carwin beat was “top 15″.

Keep this in mind

I’m quite certain some will read this and disagree about one fighter being “top 10″ at the time or perhaps with the choice of “biggest” win, but please keep in mind the spirit of the rant. Every one of the fighters above is quite good and many of their victories are against other fighters that are quite good.

Where things get confusing is when people try to bash a fighter like Rogers (compare him to Carwin prior to Rogers losing to Fedor…go on, explain how Carwin was “top 10″ and Rogers was a “can”). On some rankings lists we are starting to see fighters like Mamed Khalidov showing up. His last win was his biggest, and he has been on an incredible run. Maybe he’ll be “top 5″, maybe he won’t, but what he’s already done is pretty impressive.

What I think people need to realize is that there is a big different between beating “three cans” and beating 3 “top 15″ people. One of the great things about this site is that you can see where fighters actually stand rating wise. Sure Fighter A might not be “top 10″ and they might not be 2k rated, but if they are 1800 that’s still quite solid. There is a lot more to be said about a fighter that beats three 1800 rated guys than one that beats three 1400 rated guys.

With a broader knowledge of MMA fight histories it is easy to see that even some of the best got there with some “weaker” wins and that doesn’t take away from their greatness in anyway. Please try to keep that in mind as you look at various ranking lists. Sure someone might not have beaten a single 2k+ rated fighter, but a several wins over 1800 & 1900 rated guys is still damn impressive!

Big Nog Vs Cain

A possible fight I keep hearing about is Cain Vs Big Nog. The fight intrigues me and although I’d prefer to see Cain get one more win first (Mir? Gonzaga? JDS?) I understand it. Given all the recent fight cancellations and Nog’s staph issues I probably won’t be sure of the fight until two weeks after it happens.

What I’d like to do is a play a big ole game of MMA Ranking What If assuming this fight actually does happen around February of 2010.

MMA Rankings If Big Nog Wins

I’m pondering about if Big Nog wins first because “big” comes before “Cain” alphabetically (technically so does ‘Antonio’).

The obvious question is “Where does Big Nog Rank among MMA heavyweights if he wins”. My biggest fear is that some will still put him below Brock Lesnar. Obviously that won’t happen on this site, but I’m talking in general. Some people seem to have Brock spot welded in at number two (some have him #1 /boggle) and I wonder if Big Nog beating Cain would be enough to sway their opinion.

Recent Fights

The only real case that can be made for Brock being ahead of Nog ranking wise in MMA is recent fights. Understand that Brock only has 5 fights (and only 4 wins). Nog on the other hand has been around the sport for ten years and has over 30 wins (and only five loses).

Where things get interesting though is if we look at who each fighter has beaten recently (or ever in the case of Brock).

Frank Mir

Brock’s last fight was against Frank Mir, and he won. However, just a couple years ago Brock also lost to Frank Mir. Despite being 1-1 against Mir, Brock still edges out Nog who’s 0-1 against Mir.

Randy Couture

Prior to beating Frank Mir in a rematch, Brock beat Randy Couture. Coincidentally enough, Big Nog beat Randy in his last fight.

Heath Herring

In order to “earn” his UFC heavyweight title shot, Brock beat Heath Herring. This is interesting because Big Nog had already beaten Heath one year earlier.

Everyone else

Ok, so “everyone else” is a bit misleading because the only other win (and fight) remaining for Brock was about two and a half years ago against someone who was 3-5 at the time.

Does Nog move ahead of Brock win a win over Cain?

Do keep in mind that we are being incredibly gracious to Brock in the above comparisons. If we go back even to 2006 for Nog we see 1-1 against Barnett and a win over Werdum. Ignoring that though, you have to ask yourself if a single win over Mir recently means more than a win over Sylvia and a win over Cain (in this hypothetical situation).

As a potential follow-up (that I sadly know is needed for some), if Nog beating Cain doesn’t put him ahead of Lesnar, then would a follow-up win against Mir put him ahead of Lesnar? At that point both would be 1-1 against Mir, both would have beaten Couture and Herring. Would the wins over Sylvia and Cain then be enough to offset Min Soo Kim? Oh yeah, Min Soo Kim and 8(ish) years of being one of the very best heavyweights (and overall MMA fighters) in the world. If you still answer “no”, please explain.

MMA Rankings if Cain wins

Now we move onto the letter “C” and ponder how things will look if Cain should win. Things are a bit murkier because of the lack of direct comparisons. There is still plenty of data to look at though.

Activity

Assuming a fight in February (and Brock likely out until the middle of 2010) we see:

Cain – 8 fights in about 3.5 years. That is a bit skewed because after 2 fights in 2006 Cain didn’t fight at all in 2007. Still we’d expect around 10(ish) fights during that time frame so Cain has an activity level of about 80%.

Brock – Assuming Brock doesn’t fight again until 2010-06-02 that gives him 5 fights in 3 years. We’d expect 9(ish) during that time, so that gives Brock an activity percentage of abot 55%. If Brock did have a fight that early (seems unlikely at this point) that would be 6 fights in 3 years, or about 66% activity level.

Either way, activity has to go to Cain even holding the year off against him.

Strength of Schedule

Brock has a sick Strength of Schedule for being so early into his career. What gets overlooked is that Cain hasn’t had it super easy. Right now it stands at:

Brock – 1820 SoS
Cain – 1763 SoS

Remember that we are talking about a post-nog fight situation here though. Following the Nog fight Cain’s SoS would increase to 1805(ish). The gap wasn’t huge to begin with and the potential fight against Nog just bridges the gap even more.

Following a potential fight with Nog, Brock would still have an advantage in SoS, but certainly not as large as some might expect.

Results

As silly as it may sound, I have to point this out:

Brock – 4 wins, 1 loss
Cain (potenitally) – 8 wins, 0 losses

Does Cain move ahead of Brock if he wins?

This question is even more interesting because I think it raises additional questions about Brock being as high as #2. A win over Nog (though awesome) would likely not make Cain the #2 heavyweight. I think most would put him in the 3-6 range, but not likely #2 (remember, some don’t have Nog #2 right now).

Perhaps one of the implied questions here is if Brock would drop some in the rankings. Right now he sits as high as #2, but he last fought in July. Sources seem to indicate he “might” return in the middle of 2010, but that’s not certain. Given the large gap of inactivity and the potential for outcomes such as Cain beating Nog (or vice versa), does Brock fall from #2, if you have him that high already?

Let me again pose a potential follow-up (to those where necessary), if Cain is still ranked lower than Brock with an additional win over Nog (giving him twice as many wins without any loses, and a very comparable SoS), what else does he need to do to pass Brock in the rankings?

Easy Rant Reply format

1) Where does Nog “rank” with a potential win over Cain?

2) Where does Cain “rank” with a potential win over Big Nog?

3) Does Lesnar’s ranking shift at all? (would help to know where you have him already)

Disclaimer

My goal with this series of rants is to look at current MMA rankings in more detail. It is also an attempt to help people better understand the MMA ranking system used on this site. It would be nice if out of all of this more people understood the distinction between the MMA ranking system used on the site and the actual MMA rankings that we see. Keep in mind that matchmaking, judging, refereeing and commissions all play a role in the final MMA rankings that we see. If something looks “off” it’s not necessarily because of the system.

GSP

I would hope most don’t have a problem with GSP being #1 on the welterweight list. He’s almost universally considered one of the three best pound for pound fighters on the planet. In fact, I’m really only putting this section here because it’d be silly to talk welterweights and not mention him. Having said that…well there really isn’t much else to say.

Perhaps the only thing to note is that GSP has spoken about training for the Olympics. His recent fight activity has been a bit lower with only two fights in each of the last two years. Overall though his record and his rating are incredible. If GSP doesn’t fight very much or happens to suffer a loss and then focuses on the Olympics his ranking might drop. This isn’t an insult to him and I trust he would climb right back up the list *IF* he even drops in the first place.

Jake Shields

Possibly the most controversial ranking currently at welterweight is that of Jake Shields. Lots of MMA fans haven’t seen him fight and some that have didn’t enjoy the fights very much. Given that opinions are like assholes (meaning I don’t want to hear other peoples’…or however the saying goes) I’m going to focus on the facts.

Shields has now won 13 straight fights. Some of the people he’s beaten on that streak are:

Mayhem Miller
Robbie Lawler
Paul Daley
Nick Thompson
Carlos Condit
Yushin Okami

One thing that stands out from the above list is that half of the fighters are “middleweights”. This leads to some discussion of where Jake should be ranked at middleweight and how it might affect his welterweight ranking. Overall it seems as though welterweight is the best class for Jake, and since a majority of his recent fights have been at that weight he remains there. If Jake chooses to stay at middleweight though, then he will be removed from the welterweight list.

Regardless of the weight Jake chooses to fight at I think it’s a bit sad that he doesn’t seem to get as much positive attention as he should. I know some people find his fights to be boring at times, but I didn’t see anyone holding up “Wall”-”n”-”Stall” signs for Randy at UFC 105 and he’s still pretty loved. Remember that prior to the Miller fight Shields had ended 8 fights in a row via (t)KO/Submission.

My goal here isn’t to get people to “like” Jake Shields as much as it is to get them to acknowledge what he’s done. You don’t have to enjoy watching him or like him on any level, but at least be able to accurately discuss what he’s accomplished thus far in his career. Too often it seems a fighter being “liked” is grounds for being bumped up a few spots on the ranking lists.

Jon Fitch

Speaking of fighters that have done well, but some find boring…Heeeeerreeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssss Jon! You have to go back over two years to find the last time Jon didn’t go to decision. Some might not find that very impressive, but they probably didn’t see the GSP fight. I honestly have no idea how this guy made it to decision. He’s continually shown a willingness to keep going and I think that has slowly earned him more and more fans.

Prior to that loss to GSP Fitch had won 15 in a row, and since he’s had two solid wins against Gono and Thiago. The potential problem I see coming is who he’s being matched up against. From what I’ve heard his next fight is to be against Mike Pierce. I think Pierce is an interesting prospect, but Fitch is almost universally ranked between #2 and #4 at welterweight. Why he is being given an unranked 10-2 fighter is beyond me. Perhaps it’s just one more easy fight before a rematch against GSP, or maybe there’s more to it.

What I do have to point out though is that by having an “easier” fight it does open the door for others to pass him, even if just temporarily. We’ll have to see how the fight goes and who other fighters beat in the coming months. For me though, the risk vs reward for Fitch just feels off in this fight and I hope his next opponent is much higher ranked.

Dan Hardy

Speaking of moving up the ranks, here’s Dan Hardy. A win over Swick and he finds himself sitting at #4 currently in the welterweight rankings.

Time for a quick tangent to talk about Thiago Alves (sorry Hardy). Alves was sitting around #2 or #3 on most welterweight ranking lists for awhile. Thus far in 2009 he has just 1 fight and it is a loss. This is a case that shows the fluidity of the rankings on this site. We didn’t drop Alves off the list for a single loss. We didn’t do any wild leapfrogging with a 1-0 fighter. Rather, Hardy got hot and won a couple good matches recently and at the same time Alves suffered a loss and went inactive.

I point this situation out because it seems like at times people look at the rankings and assume they’ve been chiseled in stone for years and will never change. That is actually about as far away from the truth as you can get. If Alves were to compete at UFC 106 and score a solid win, they would hop back ahead of Hardy. When looking at the rankings on this site, please always keep in mind the timing of things. A fighter is going to be a bit lower following a loss. At the same time, a fighter on a winning streak will be higher.

One other thing we can see from the Hardy’s current ranking is that it’s reasonable for him to get the title shot. I know some blast the mma-elo system because they think #2 always has to fight #1 and that we’ll never see certain fights and blahblahblah. That, again, is simply untrue. What the system promotes is reasonable fights, competitive fights, respectful fights. That doesn’t mean the #2 guy has to always get the title shot or that a fighter should keep getting rematches against Anderson Silva until the Spider takes 400 rating from them.

In this case we see Shields at #2 (not in the UFC), we see Fitch (recent title shot, loss) at #3 and Hardy at #4. I think giving Hardy the title shot makes perfect sense in this case. It would be nice if he’d had just one more win to get his rating up a bit higher prior to the GSP fight. When making matches for fighters like GSP/Anderson/Fedor though it’s hard at times and this is certainly acceptable.

I didn’t really say much about Hardy in this section, so I’ll just point out that he’s currently on a seven fight win streak and that is the longest of his career. If GSP beats Hardy that would push his current win streak to seven, which would tie the longest of his career.

Diego Sanchez

Diego is currently still showing at welterweight despite his last two fights being at lightweight. Following his fight against BJ Penn (in December *crosses fingers*) Diego will be moved to the lightweight rankings.

Matt Hughes

Hughes currently sits at #7 on our current list of MMA weltweights. Some people feel this is too high, and some think Hughes should retire. The thing I find interesting is who Hughes has lost to recently. He lost to GSP (just like everyone else, but at least he still has one win against him), he lost to Alves (#2-#4 ranked welterweight) and five years ago he lost to BJ Penn. That’s it, those are Hughes “recent” losses.

Matt is obviously getting older and I know some think the sport has passed him by. What I always find amusing though is how some people perceive losing to someone great as somehow meaning you suck. Look, if I go into a double elimination tennis tourney and pull Nadal and Federer as my first two opponents, I’m going to lose badly. That doesn’t mean I’m horrible (I am, but ignore that for now), it doesn’t mean I’m not top 10 (I’m not), it just means I lost to some really great people. Technically speaking I could be the third best tennis player in the world (still not), but I happened to face those couple people that are just better than me.

The situation I speak of with Matt certainly isn’t unique to him either. It seems to have become common place for a fighter to lose and then be dubbed “a can” or some other storage container. The logical part of my brain (the whole thing) at that point beings to hurt. You see, if someone is a “can” and someone else beat them…how the hell is that an accomplishment!?. Seriously, here we have Fighter A…they just defeated Fighter B…we now call Fighter B a can. If Fighter B isn’t any good then why the hell is everyone drinking Fighter A flavored kool-aid all of a sudden?!?

In the situation above I’m not saying Fighter A isn’t good, I’m not even saying Fighter B doesn’t suck, I’m just trying to point out the reasonable level of confusion some might have. If I walk up to a girl at a bar wearing my “Yes, I’m Evil Pooh” T-shirt and she shoots me down and my response is “she was ugly”, doesn’t that mean I just got shot down by an ugly chick?

How does that help my case!? Wouldn’t it be better if I went, “damn, that girl was WAYYYY out of my league, an 11, three time Miss-Redheadtopia”. In much the same vein, wouldn’t it behoove people to *PRAISE* the fighter that just lost. Something like “Wow, Fighter B is amazing, still has it, only lost to top guys and I think this helps show that Fighter A really is one of the top guys now”. Again, I’m throwing together fortune cookie scraps here, but I hope you get the idea.

Hughes’ activity (bet you didn’t think I remembered who I was talking about) has gone down considerably in recent years. With only one fight in 2009 and a single fight back in 2008 you have to wonder how many more fights he’ll have. Overall though I don’t think his losses to top 3 guys in the division are proof of his demise and I think there are a lot of newer fighters working their way up that Hughes would still give a challenge to.

Paulo Thiago

Since I’m ranting about things that don’t make sense to me, I’m now going to jump down to Paulo Thiago. Currently on the site he’s ranked #24. This is a pretty big contrast to some sites that have him ranked as high at #5 (last I checked).

Where things get interesting is when we look at this next fight. He is currently scheduled to face Jakob Volkmann at UFC 106. Volkmann is an interesting up and comer with a 9-0 record and only a couple of decision. Having said that, why the hell is the “#5 welterweight” facing a 9-0 prospect? If Thiago really is “top 5″ then this fight is horrible, it makes no sense, and people should vehemently object.

If we consider another possibility though…What if Thiago really is just a top 20(ish) level fighter right now? Looking at his record we see he is 11-1. That’s a pretty good record. Where things get interesting is looking at his progression. Here on this site his progression has been steady over the past couple of years as he pieced together a solid 11 fight win streak. On other ranking lists he basically never got mentioned until he beat Josh Koscheck. As soon as he did that on other lists he immediately shot into the top 10.

Following that win, Thiago took on Fitch (see above) and lost the first fight of his career. On mma-elo he’s got a solid rating and is still working his way up the list. On other sites he’s sitting very high and I honestly can’t fathom how killing Jacob Volkmann with mind bullets 0.1 seconds into the fight would possibly help his ranking.

This really seems like a case where a fighter had a big win and then an almost expected loss. I don’t think Paulo’s current ranking on the site is insulting to him and I think it’d be quite easy for him to move back up the list. Beating Volkmann would be a solid win and after that he would hopefully be given a step up in competition again.

Other Possible Matchups

Much like I did with the lightweights the other day these are just a few random matchups that seem to make sense from a ranking point of view and might yield interesting (and meaningful) results.

Fitch Vs Alves 2

This seems like a solid rematch. The first time they fought was almost three and a half years ago. Both have lost to GSP, both have beaten Hironaka.

Rumble Vs Paulo Thiago

We spoke about where Paulo really “fits” in the current welterweight rankings and I think this fight would be interesting. Rumble is a fighter on his way up and I think both fighters stand to gain from this fight.

The Heat Vs Semtex

Karo seems to be floating out in the ranking abyss somewhere. He almost got a title shot, had some issues, and things have just been “off” ever since. With Karo’s last fight ruled a no contest and a slew of decisions prior to that Karo really needs to get some momentum going.

In a very different situation is Paul Daley. Daley has won four straight since losing to “The Goat”. He just won his UFC debut against Kampmann and his style is sure keep UFC fans interested. His upcoming fight against Condit should be entertaining and maybe “heat vs semtex” could follow?

Shields Vs ???

None of these are likely to happen, but I think some matches that would shed some light on the welterweight rankings would be…

Shields Vs Hughes
Shields Vs Karo
Shields Vs Fitch

Most of those might not turn out to be the most entertaining fights for some people, but I think they’d help clear up the welterweight picture quite a bit. A slightly more likely, and also beefier fight might be Shields Vs Dan Henderson at 185.

Is there no one else?

As with yesterday’s rant, please let me know anyone I left out. If there are any fighters that still seem out of place or that you would like a more detailed explanation of, please don’t hesitate to ask. One of the biggest benefits of the ranking system used is that everything is clear, fair and consistent. I’ll try to get middleweights done by Thursday, so if you have specific questions, please get them in now.

-Evil Pooh

Disclaimer

My goal with this series of rants is to look at current MMA rankings in more detail. It is also an attempt to help people better understand the MMA ranking system used on this site. It would be nice if out of all of this more people understood the distinction between the MMA ranking system used on the site and the actual MMA rankings that we see. Keep in mind that matchmaking, judging, refereeing and commissions all play a role in the final MMA rankings that we see. If something looks “off” it’s not necessarily because of the system.

BJ Penn

Probably one of the biggest points of contention some people have when looking at the current MMA lightweight rankings on this site is where BJ Penn ranks. Please try to stay calm and I’ll try to explain this as best I can.

Performance *NOT* Potential

The first thing to keep in mind is that we have to look at the actual performance of MMA fighters when ranking them. MMA is a sport and as such it’s very important that we focus on what fighters actually do. There is no doubt that BJ has a ton of potential, but saying things like “BJ would beat xxx” carries no weight here. It is about what BJ *HAS* done, it’s who BJ *HAS* beat.

Activity

An often overlooked point is that BJ is not super active (especially at lightweight, more on that in a minute). An average number of fights for an MMA fighter is about 3 per year. If things go well then 2009 will see BJ Penn have three fights for the first time in awhile.

2009 – Three fights (hopefully)
2008 – 2 fights
2007 – 1 fight
2006 – 2 fights
2005 – 2 fights
2004 – 3 fights

Losses

It’s not as though activity is the only factor. Understand that despite not fighting a lot BJ has actually lost a fair amount.

2009 – 1 loss (1-1 so far)
2008 – 0
2007 – 0 (won his only fight)
2006 – 2 (yes he fought twice and lost twice)
2005 – 1 loss (1-1 for 2005)

Possible Exception(s)

What some people like to point out is that the majority of BJ’s recent losses have been against guys “bigger” than him. This point can be valid, but it needs to be carefully evaluated. If you are going to claim that BJ Penn’s losses at higher weights shouldn’t count, then their wins at higher weights shouldn’t count either. We are talking about a sport here and it’s not right for one fighter to go into a fight with a chance to make a huge gain in rating and not risk any rating in return.

As a note though, looking at BJ Penn’s career we see that his fights at higher weights have a net result of -19 rating points. In truth the numbers would actually be a bit lower, but if you just sum up the wins at higher weights and the losses, you get -19. That means the losses at welterweight (and above) are not pulling BJ’s ranking way down.

Putting it all together

The big problem that results from removing those fights at higher weight classes is that you also push down BJ’s activity even more. If we look at *ONLY* light weight performance in recent years we see:

2009 – 1 win…solid win over Kenny Florian
2008 – 2 wins…a win over Sherk and a win over Stevenson
2007 – 1 win (only fight) and it was against Pulver

After that you have to go all the way back to 2003 for another BJ Penn fight at lightweight. Again we find ourselves facing a decision. Many people seem to get hung up on recent performance, but in the last three years BJ Penn has…four wins at lightweight.

Of those wins, the first, against Pulver is almost nonsensical. This fight was a chance for BJ to avenge a loss and it took up part of the ultimate fighter, but the fight was silly. Many at this time still talked of BJ being #1 in the world at LW and here he was taking on a fighter that wasn’t top anything. On top of that, Pulver said before the fight that he was going to drop down a weight class.

As an honest question, if BJ was as high ranked as people said why on earth is he being given this fight? One fight for the *ENTIRE YEAR* and it’s against a fighter that though I respect, wasn’t on anyone’s ranking list. To put the Pulver fight in perspective…Jens had just lost to Joe Lauzon. Joe is a fun (and somewhat scary) guy, but he certainly wasn’t a major ranked fighter back then. Although I’m not one to look at after the fight results I know some do, for that reason note that Pulver’s career went:

- Lose to Joe
- Lose to Penn
- Win 1
- Lose 4
- Retire

What it comes down to is that going a whole year with only one fight hurts people’s ranking because it gives others a big opportunity to catch up. Having that one fight come against someone ranked significantly lower only makes it worse. As a poor, but not completely flawed analogy imagine if Tiger Woods only entered a single tourney for all of 2010 and it wasn’t even a major.

2008 was a good year for BJ and I take nothing away from it. Still only two fights, but two solid wins. I do have to point out that most had Sean Sherk ranked far lower than we did and as such some probably don’t think it was quite as big of a win.

Going forward

BJ has a fight against Diego coming up soon. I hope it’s a great fight, and I hope we see more fights from BJ is 2010. If BJ wins the Diego fight he’ll probably be ranked #2 (it depends what other fighters do as well), and there is no doubt that he could easily be ranked #1. Overall though, with so few fights, and everything else we discussed I think it’s easy to see why BJ isn’t currently #1. Not a lot will argue about his potential, but when we look at the actual results I think it’s understandable.

Shinya Aoki

Aoki being #1 in the current MMA lightweight rankings is a problem for some, but I think once we take a look at things in more detail it’s easy to see why. Since BJ Penn is the fighter people often compare Aoki’s ranking against I’ll try to factor that into my explanations to provide a frame of reference. Please keep in mind the potential Vs performance issue mentioned above.

Activity

Unlike BJ who only has four lightweight MMA fights in the last three years, Aoki has stayed busy.

2007 – 3 fights (BJ fought once)
2008 – 6 fights (and one NC, BJ fought twice)
2009 – 3 fights (plus one at welterweight, BJ fought once so far at lightweight)

Losses

Recently Aoki has had two losses. One to Hellboy in 2008 and one in 2009 to Mach. Note that the Mach fight was at welterweight, so if you are a person that ignores fights at other weights, please do so. However, it is interesting to note that when looking at 2009 so far we see:

BJ Penn – 1 Loss to a welterweight, 1 win against Kenny Florian
Aoki – 1 Loss to a welterweight, Wins against Hellboy, Shaolin and one win against someone far below him.

I know some people have a limited knowledge of MMA fighters (I don’t say it to hate, I say it because it’s true). Kenny Florian is a solid lightweight and BJ gets credit for beating him. However, Hellboy and Shaolin are both quality wins. Even if we ignore the third win so far this year for Aoki I think it’s easy to see his 2009 has been better so far.

Note that if BJ wins his fight against Diego that will likely push his 2009 ahead and that is a discussion we can have if/when it happens. 8) For now, does everyone at least see that so far for 2009 Aoki has had the better year (just to date)?

While talking about losses let us also take a look at 2008 for both fighters…

BJ Penn – Wins over Stevenson and Sherk, No losses
Aoki – Wins over Eddie Alvarez, JZ, and Uno…plus two wins against people far below him. There is also the 1 loss to Hellboy

Although I’m sure Stevenson and Sherk are the more households names I hope most people recognize that Alvarez and JZ are very good lightweights and that both were top 10 when Aoki beat them. The win over Uno wasn’t overly impressive, and the fights against weaker opponents can be ignored for the most part. They weren’t losses though, so they really can’t count against him. Aoki also got almost no points for beating them.

Looking at 2007 we see that it wasn’t an outstanding year for Aoki. He had 3 fights, 3 wins, but 2 of them were against very weak competition. However, 2007 is the year that BJ only fought once and that was against Pulver.

Strength of Schedule

Another point that sometimes gets brought up is BJ’s strength of schedule. There is not doubt that it’s one of the hardest ever, but it’s also that high in large part due to fighters outside his weight class. If people choose to focus on lightweight only fights then BJ’s strength of schedule doesn’t include multiple fights against Hughes and GSP. It’s still great, but it’s not like Aoki’s SoS of mid-1700’s is terrible (he’s currently around #22 on the SoS ranking list).

Somewhat confusing

To be perfectly honest I’m not sure how someone can look at the above indifferently and conclude that BJ should be light years ahead of Aoki. I know Aoki doesn’t look like he should win…but he does. I know BJ has a ton of hype and more potential than almost any MMA fighter. What it ultimately comes down to though is who *HAS* done what, who *HAS* the person beaten.

Sometimes people like to say BJ should be higher than Aoki because he’d win a head to head fight, but that isn’t how sport works. If the Red Sox win every game against the Yankees next year there is still a chance they won’t make the playoffs and the Yankees could repeat as champions. We have to look at the whole picture.

If BJ had fought two whole times in 2007, if he’d fought higher ranked fighters than Pulver, if he’d focused just a bit…just a BIT! more on the lightweight division instead of chasing welterweights, then I have no doubt he’d be #1 right now. The fact of the matter though is that he didn’t. BJ Penn didn’t care about dominating the division, he missed fights, he took bad fights and because of that is currently ranked in the 2-3 range. It’s easily fixable and I look forward to seeing the Diego fight and the matchups we get next year.

Takanori Gomi

Gomi is a fighter that many think is too high right now. Their is no doubt he hasn’t looked amazing in recent fights, but that’s not reason enough to drop him way down the list.

Gomi fell out of favor following back to back losses. The first thing to keep in mind is that this wasn’t the first time Gomi lost twice in a row. Back in 2003 he lost to Hellboy and BJ Penn. What followed was a 10 fight win streak that included only 2 decisions (both unaminous) and 6 (T)KOs.

Also, here are a few other fighters that have dropped two fights in a row at some point during their career:

Kenny Florian
Joe Stevenson (Twice)
Gabriel Gonzaga
Randy Couture (Thrice)
Matt Hughes (Twice)

Clearly losing two fights doesn’t doom you to the depths of mediocrity for the remainder of your career.

The other important thing to note is that Gomi still has the highest alltime MMA rating at lightweight. Prior to that two fight slide he’d won 14 of 15 fights against some very difficult competition (yes some weaker, but also some quite strong).

This is definitely one of those cases where Gomi’s personal rating has dropped significantly (well over 100 points), but others simply aren’t passing him. Whether that be due to inactivity on their parts, losing some fights or whatever.

Having said all that I’m very hopefully that we’ll see several good fights from Gomi in the coming year. If he stays inactive then he’ll fall off the list. It will also allow other fighters to pass him. In this case I really don’t have any specific fights in mind because there is a wealth of talent at lightweight and it is spread all over the place. Gomi can go fight wherever he wants as long as it’s against quality competition.

Jamie Varner

Jamie is a clear cut case of a fighter that needs to be given harder competition. You can see that in recent years his rating has gone up as he continues to win, but his level of competition really hasn’t.

The ranking system has responded by giving him fewer points for wins, but that only goes so far. There comes a time when a fighter needs to be thrown in the ring with tougher competition and that time for Varner was about a year ago.

Complicating matters for Jamie are the injuries he suffered during his last fight. At this point we are closing in on almost a year since he last fought. I hope he comes back healthy and determined, and I also hope he comes back to some solid competition. If that competition can’t be found in the WEC then throw him in the cage against Stevenson, Edgar or Florian. He will either prove he should be higher or he’ll drop down accordingly.

Either way I think a fighter with a 16-2 record, no losses in over three years and only two decisions on their record (their first two fights!…technically their last fight was a technical decision for a 3rd…still nothing for a lightweight) should get a bit more respect from fans. I’m not saying call him a BJ slayer or put him #1, but at least give the guy some credit.

Odds and Ends

Overall I think the lightweight division is just incredibly stacked. The fact that we have fighters across an array of organizations can complicate things a bit, but it also is a case where a ranking system can help us get a clearer picture.

Although I think a dart board or some dice can result in great matchmaking for lightweights I do have a few specific fights that I wouldn’t mind seeing. All of these are smart from a ranking point of view and I think all of them are pretty interesting from an entertainment point of view.

Joe Lauzon Vs Spencer Fisher

Both lightweights that seldom go to decision, both 2-1 in their last 3, both with similar ratings, both with similar strengths of schedule. Just seems like a great fight that could put someone a couple fights away from a title shot. Fights like these are where a fighter can really build moment so that a title shot becomes the obvious choice.

Kawajiri Vs Aoki

Soooo many reasons for this fight. Both fighters are highly ranked. LOTS of similar opponents in their fight histories. Just seems like a hell of a fight that is overdue.

Tyson Griffin Vs Gray Maynard

Gray tends to go to decision, but overall Tyson hasn’t (though he had a run of 7 in a row recently lol). Their only common opponent is Edgar with Gray having won and Tyson having lost. I think the winner of this fight could reasonably be given the winner of Diego Vs Penn.

Thomson Vs Melendez

This rematch was supposed to happen a few times and I’m honestly not sure if it’s going to happen or not. I think it should and I think the winner should fight…Eddie Alvarez…or maybe Gomi.

Last heading!

As I said, there are a lot of great fights possible, even with possible cross organization hangups. I’m quite certain we will see a lot of movement in the rankings in the coming months and I hope some of the explanations above help make things a bit clearer.

If you have any questions about the current lightweight MMA rankings that I might have missed, please ask below or on the forums. I’ll be back (hopefully) tomorrow with a look at the welterweights.

Sadly I’m still very sick with no sign of a hot redheaded nurse in sight. 8(

However, since I updated the mma rankings and some have asked for a bit more of a “recap” at times when I do it, here we go…

Recent MMA Events

There are a few MMA events added to this push that some have been asking about. They include:

Strikeforce Challenger Series
Fite Nite Noche de Campeones
Dream 11
Sengoku 10
MFC 22
AOW 14

MMA Fight Results

I still contend that raw prediction percentage is not the proper measure of the system on this site, but I know many are still interested in such things. For now I’ll just go with it, but once I feel better I’ll be back to trying to convince people of the better way of doing things.

Let’s start with AOW 14. That card was great. We had 5 draws, 1 No Contest and 2 Subs. /boggle For the two fights that actually ended both were cases where the higher ranked fighter won.

Ignoring AOW 14 the rest of the events saw a combined breakdown of 31 cases where the higher ranked fighter won and 12 cases where the lower ranked fighter won. In almost all cases the winning fighter is now ranked higher. Additionally, a few of the fights where the lower ranked fighter won were cases where at least one (if not both) fighters had very few professional MMA fights.

Of that 31-12 breakdown, the most “accurate” event was Dream 11 at 8-1. Meanwhile, MFC22 was the worst at 5-4.

Updating MMA Event and Fighter Information

I usually don’t update MMA event information until I hear from the promoter or the commission. In some cases there can be delays and even changes after the fact. If you see information missing or that appears incorrect please let me know immediately.

Clearly not feeling well

This has to be one of the shortest “rants” I’ve ever written. Alas; it will have to do. I am now going to get back to looking for that nurse…wish me luck!

Requirements for our new MMA Ranking System

In order to build something we should generally have an idea of the purpose. In terms of an MMA Ranking system, the purpose should seem obvious…to rank MMA fighters. Where this gets interesting is that there are several ways to rank MMA fighters.

Many sites seem to factor popularity into it heavily. Some sites like to focus on the very last fight someone ever had. For this “new” mma ranking system here is the base criteria.

1) Respect the fighters (they are professional athletes) and reflect on MMA as the sport that it truly is.
2) Be unbiased, consistent, predictable and accurate

That shall be the basis. To get away from the hype, from the subjective, from the inconsistent and in the process shift some power away from the matchmakers and over to the fighters.

Any ranking problems thus far?

Any problems thus far? Any glaring issue with either of those points? Anyone have more to add or think one of those points should be omitted from this ranking system?

Implementation of our new MMA ranking system

Since we know what we are aiming for we now set about implementing our new ranking system. Here is how the system works:

All MMA fighters start on equal footing

What this does is remove hype, popularity. Yes some MMA fighters might gain an advantage from being a BJJ Black belt or from K-1 Striking experience, but history shows that MMA is a different ballgame. As such, all mma fighters start at the same place.

Outcome determines rating changes

No getting signed to a new org and jumping 5 places, no getting into a title fight and climbing the ranks. What you actually do will determine how your mma rating and ultimately how your mma ranking changes.

Quality opponents are worth more

The better the person you beat, the more you gain, the more outmatched, the less you lose. We aren’t looking at pure mma fight records where someone 100-2 is automatically superior to someone who is 99-2.

That’s it!

Now take a seat, pull out some scrap paper, throw on the old thinking cap and let’s go through that one more time. The system we just built ignores hype, it rewards success and it factors in quality of opposition faced.

Yet again I pause and yield to questions from the audience. Who sees a glaring flaw with the above? Which of the three points mentioned above should be gone? Is there another point missing that should be included?

How the MMA Ranking system performs

We thought up the system, we adhered to our requirements and lets see what we got. Looking at the actual numbers we see our system is basically as unbiased as possible. The only cases where “human” interaction plays any part is on selection of values and those were deliberately chosen for accuracy.

The system is perfectly consistent and predictable. No more #1 losing to #5 and #5 moving to #1 while elsewhere #2 beats #1 and still sits at #2.

In terms of accuracy the MMA ranking system we’ve created above is quite strong. Overall prediction numbers are significantly better than a “fair coin toss” (roughly 33% better) and system integrity scores higher than some got in high school gym class.

Problems with our new MMA Ranking system

Pretty much nothing is perfect and obviously we can see some flaws with our results. This begs the question…are the flaws because of the system we built or some other factor? Looking back at the ground rules for our ranking system we see very few stipulations and almost nothing anyone has a problem with.

When we take a look at the actual ranking system basics and the design we see more sound thought and few issues. Turning to the results we see numbers that show high accuracy and remain true to our unbiased and consistent requirements previously set forth.

Puzzling…if the system is built on sound philosophies, and the numbers prove accurate, why is it we see some “glaring” issues in the results?

A possible answer

Someone much funnier than me and dearly missed once said, “Garbage in, Garbage out!”. They were talking about politics, but the theory can be applied in many places. In this case I’m talking about matchmaking. Let’s consider this situation…

An MMA Fighter is ranked too high/too low

Let’s build this from the ground up…

We know all MMA fighters in this ranking system start at the same ranking. That means there is no chance the fighter started off higher than someone that should be ranked below them.

We know fighters only get points when they win. This means the fighter had to have won some fights. Additionally we know fighters lose points when they lose matches, so that means in order for a fighter to be higher in rank they had to have gained more points than they lost.

We also know that quality of opponent matters. To the extreme that in some cases an MMA fighter will literally get zero points for beating an opponent. As above, we also know the system will take significantly more points from a fighter that loses to a much weaker fighter.

We also know the system has no idea who a fighter actually is. Our system is as unbiased as possible and pays no attention to name, or popularity.

What this leaves us with is a situation where the root cause of our problem is matchmaking. The good news is we can identify it, the bad news is that the solution is better matchmaking.

Think about a case where one Fighter is “too high” and another fighter is “too low”. If the matchmaker paired them against each other and the “proper” fighter won, then the MMA rating for the “too high” fighter would drop significantly and the MMA rating for the “too low” fighter would raise significantly.

This is just a simple case of the ranking system being able to self-correct itself. Now obviously we might not get the perfect matchup, and we might not get it right away, but whenever and however it happens, the adjustment will still happen. Eventually that “too high” fighter will lose and when they do they’ll drop even more rating for it. At the same time, the “too low” fighter is bound to turn it around and when they do, they’ll gain even more rating for it.

The honest truth

Here’s the deal. The MMA Ranking System on this site is very good. I don’t say it because I built it. As a matter of fact, if I hadn’t built it I’d probably be more positive towards the site and the ranking system. I say it because it’s true. The system has very sincere and respectful goals in mind and despite the few “eyesoars” that some like to focus on it does a fantastic job.

I’m someone who is incapable of being happy, so you can rest assured I’ll keep trying to make it better. What would be great though is if people could focus on what exactly the system sets out to do and how well it actually performs.

I’m really not one to point fingers, but re-read the above points. That is all the system sets out to do and that is all it does. When you realize how accurate the system actually is it becomes clear the problems many have actually lie elsewhere.

If you hate the site, you hate the site. That’s fine, stay away and if readership goes to 0 I can go back to building boats in bottles. I’m ok with that. All I’d really like though is some honest discussion. If there is really a problem with the few very specific points above then lets hear it. The above MMA ranking system is not perfect, but it’s also not as flawed as some insist on saying. Just stop and think about the points mentioned above and consider these situations:

- The Seahawks get to play the Raiders 12 times this year. The Seahawks go 12-4 and make it into the playoffs over the 49ers who go 11-5 (with 8 games each against the Steelers and Giants). Do we blame the NFL Playoff system because it said the 12-4 team goes or do we maybe look at the matchmaker that setup the schedules?

- The commissioner of baseball declares that NY is a major market and as such at least one NY team will *ALWAYS* get a playoff berth. The Mets do slightly less horrible than the Yankees (not this year, grats yanks on the birth) and get a playoff berth where they actually manage to win a few games past August 1st and take out their first round opponent.

If the ranking system in place had said the other team did better than the Mets up to that point, do we blame it? Should we really be flaming the ranking system in this case? Instead, maybe we focus on the fact that the series shouldn’t have happened at all.

Those are just two examples, but many more could be made. Players can get suspended, MMA fighters can linger on the undercard, MME can prevail over MMA at times, etc.

See the thing about me is I don’t mind being blamed for what I actually do. Look at the situation below and understand that if I were the older brother I’d be ok with whatever punishment I got. As the younger brother…not so much.

Consider an older brother hitting their younger brother in the head with a baseball bat and the younger brother getting yelled at because they bought the bat in the first place. *shrugs*