How to calculate Strength of Schedule

Accurately calculating the Strength of Schedule for MMA fighters requires clearly defining what it is you are looking for. I’m a strong believe that many times it is more about the “right stat for you” than the “right stat” in general. While some prefer a pure strength of schedule that is simply calculated by taking the average rating of an MMA fighter’s opponents, others prefer a different approach. For those that prefer the pure calculation please check out MMA Fighters Ranked by Strength of Schedule.

The calculation for strength of schedule used in this rant is what I refer to as the “big game hunter” approach. What we are looking at with this approach is who has won the biggest fights. This approach doesn’t focus on average quality of opposition, but rather on average quality of an MMA fighter’s biggest wins. In order to provide a broader picture I’ll be looking at the BGHSoS(Big Game Hunter Strength of Schedule) at various win totals for MMA fighters.

MMA Strength of Schedule – One Big One

Since we are looking at a fence of a single MMA win, that means our list above basically tells us who had the single biggest win. Here are some random things I found interesting…

Rampage Jackson

Rampage sits at first because of his victory over Chuck Liddell. Although the “Iceman” seems to get a lot of hate these days, it’s hard to deny just how impressive his career was. On the amusing side of things it is interesting to note that Rampage beat Chuck at a time that snapped a seven fight win streak. That win streak is the same streak Chuck started after Rampage beat him about three and a half years earlier. Had rampage lost that first fight, this win over Chuck would have been even more impressive.

Big Nog

Don’t bother looking back over the list…Big Nog isn’t on it. What is interesting though is what a big role he played in it. Big Nog is responsible for Mir at #2, Fedor at #3, and Josh Barnett at #6. I honestly think more than anyone else Nog suffers from Fedor existing. Yes, the losses physically hurt (or should have, you never know with Nog), but Nog is just *THAT* damn good. He is the #2 guy that no one would question as #1 if not for #1 existing. His career is insane, his “style” is inspiring and his impact on MMA is undeniable.

One Hit Wonders

Fighters like Matt Serra (#12), Keith Jardine (#13), Brian Bowles (#17), and Marcus Aurelio (#18) show up on the list due to a single huge win in their careers, but sadly fall off the list once we extend the strength of schedule criteria out to several wins.

Anderson Silva

An MMA fighter that was originally a bit lower than I expected (#21) was Anderson. Once I took a look back at his career though I realized that although MMA fighters like Rich Franklin are amazing wins (and amazing fighters in their own right) they were never quite at the level that say Big Nog was. Don’t worry though, Anderson has a *LOT* of high quality wins and you’ll see his name move up the list soon.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Rematches FTW!

Fedor

Not one, but *TWO* Nogs! Seriously, beating Nog once was enough to get two people into the top 5 on the single win Strength of Schedule list and accounted for three of the top 10. Beating him twice is…crazy. (insert “Russian” joke here if you feel it necessary)

Movers and Shakers

The win over CroCop was huge, but after that there is a big drop off for Gonzaga. Say “Hi” to him at #22 above because it’s the last you’ll see of him in this rant. Perhaps if we re-do this rant in another year he will have gotten another couple of big wins (Will I even still be ranting in a year?).

Also dropping down some is Mir (from #2 to #9). While moving up is Anderson (going from #21 to #11).

MMA Strength of Schedule – Triology!

The Iceman Cometh

It might seem odd, but Chuck finally premiers on the all time strength of schedule ranking list (Big Game Hunter style!) at #16. This is due to his solid wins over solid competition and the fact that several of the “one hit wonders” have now fallen off the list. It may have taken Chuck until “three” to get here, but now he’s here to stay.

Movers and Shakers

Fedor and GSP flip flop at the top of the list. Forrest falls outside the top 5, but still stays high (#8) due to the big wins over Rampage and Shogun. Frank Mir falls to #20, and will be off the remainder of the Strength of Schedule lists that follow. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Barnett, he dropped from #6 to #25, but now appears to be going back up the list (now at #24).

MMA Strength of Schedule – Jimmie Johnson Style

Josh Koscheck

Making his only appearance on any of the strength of schedule lists for this rant is Josh Koscheck at #24. One reason this is interesting is because using a career wide, average strength of opposition (including wins and losses) approach to strength of schedule we see Josh would be #5. This shows how the different approaches can greatly influence the results. Another reason it is interesting is because of how Josh is perceived. It seems like he has to constantly prove he is a top fighter at welterweight and somehow peoples’ dislike of him overshadows his achievements.

Not a whole lot of shaking going on

The top seven spots remain unchanged except for Lyoto and Rampage swapping spots four and five.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Count the biggest wins on one hand

The underrated

Several names on the list might seem out of place to some MMA fans. Fighters like Sonnen (#15), Shields (#17), Sobral (#19), and Hansen (#20) seem to get dissed an inappropriate amount. We are at five fights on our Big Game Hunter Strength of Schedule and these guys are on the list while a lot of bigger name fighters dropped off a couple wins ago.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Perfect 10

Your browser and eyes are likely fine

If the above table looks different than the last few, it’s OK. If the above table looks the same then something is likely wrong with your browser and/or your eyes.

Shinya Aoki

Jumping up to 10 wins (from 5) we see Shinya Aoki climb to the #5 slot. Shinya is so under appreciated it actually goes negative and becomes hate for some people. From talking with most people it seems that his appearance and lack of exposure are two of the biggest problems. Doesn’t it seem kind of strange that a lack of recognition and appearance would both be a problem at the same time?

In terms of recognition it stems not only from people not “getting” Aoki, but them not getting his opponents. Fighters like Hellboy (see above), Shaolin, Alvarez, JZ and others are just scary good fighters. Sadly, many haven’t seen the people Aoki has beaten fight, so it’s hard to give him the credit he deserves.

The issues with appearance stem from Aoki not “looking” like a fighter. He’s rather small looking, he wears flashy pants, and many don’t think he “looks” like he should win. Many of these people are the ones that think Fedor is out of shape, that think Brock is already the greatest HW of all time and that Roy Nelson was the underdog against Schaub.

As sad as it might sound (or as hard as it might be to believe) if Aoki looked a bit different and people had a broader MMA knowledge base then he would show up “p4p” talks and “LW GOAT” talks a *LOT* more often.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Make it an even 15

Flip Flop at the Top

Here after 15 wins we see Anderson take over the top spot (Edging out Fedor whom he was tied with after 10). GSP falls to third. Chuck moves back up into the top 5 (from #6 after 10 MMA wins) and Big Nog jumps all the way to #4 (from #9 after 10 MMA wins) to round out the top 5.

Parting Reminder

Remember that what we are looking at here is average “big” wins at specific limits. Like most stats there are benefits and downsides to using this approach to Strength of Schedule for MMA. Some may find it quite interesting and others may ignore it entirely. Where I think this can be interesting is when people try to use a “weaker” fight as a way to ignore harder fights.

It seems as though some people would rather see a fighter have 2 “big” wins (and possibly a loss), than see a fighter with 3 “big” wins and a couple weaker wins. For some people the wins over “weaker” fighters somehow diminish the wins over stronger opponents.

What about you? Are you a “big game hunter” kind of person, or do you tend to prefer the overall pure Strength of Schedule that factors in loses as well as wins for MMA fighters?