How it’s gonna be

Although I’m not opposed to such a “ranking system” it seems as though it is not universally applied. Let’s take a handful of fighters from various weight classes and look at where they “rank” and then look at their MMA fight history in more detail. The format I’m going to use is very simple, I’m going to pick a fighter, list their MMA ranking(ish), and explore their “top 10″ wins.

Before starting I want to emphasize my respect for all the fighters listed below. I know some might read parts of what follows as fighter bashing, but that is very far from the truth. My intention isn’t to down play a fighter’s history, but rather to show that some fight histories are very impressive even without a slew of “top 10″ wins.

Jon Fitch

Jon Fitch has been ranked #2 or #3 in the welterweight division for awhile now. Going on the above assumption it’d be reasonable to assume he’d beaten some #2 or #3 ranked fighter(s), right? Well, that’s just not true.

Fitch’s “biggest” MMA win?

I mentioned it recently, but many would likely list Thiago Alves as Jon Fitch’s “biggest” win. At the time of the fight though, neither was “top 3″. In recent years they’ve both been number 2 or 3, but over three years ago when they fought neither fighter was getting a title shot for winning the fight.

With Alves out of the way it’s likely that Diego is actually Fitch’s “biggest” win. This can be a little fuzzy though because despite having an almost 2k rating at the time of the fight, Diego had just lost to Koscheck. Even with the loss though Diego was still a “top 10″ fighter on various MMA ranking lists.

Everyone else

Fitch’s most recent victory was over Paulo Thiago. That win isn’t really relevant to this discussion though because Fitch had been considered #2 – #3 (ish) even before the fight. I mention it because it’s a good win for him and I want it clear that this isn’t about saying Fitch isn’t a top welterweight. Rather it’s about shining a light on how he got there.

With Alves explained, Diego granted, and Thiago noted…who’s left? Here are some names…

Gono…Wilson…Larson

Solid names, no doubt! Top 10? hrmmmm…Maybe Gono at one point, maybe Larson peaking in and out at times, but overall? Not really.

Moving past those three we see fighters like:

Luigi Fioravanti, and Josh Burkman

Again, solid fighters, they have a name, they are pro’s, but….top 10?

The point

The point I’m trying to make here is that the “best” fighter Jon Fitch has faced is GSP and he lost to him (badly). Jon Fitch is almost universally considered top 3, but where is the list of even “top 5″ guys he beat to get there? (maybe Diego…Maybe??) Fitch has solid wins on his record (quite a few) and I think it’s clear that he got his ranking not because of three or four “big” wins, but due to a lot of “solid” wins.

Dan Hardy

Staying with the welterweights for a bit (next one too!) we’ll ponder Dan Hardy. “The Outlaw” now finds himself in the “top 5″ on various lists. Since this is only the second person on the list I’m again going to point out that my intention here isn’t to say Dan Hardy shouldn’t be #4(ish), but rather to explore how they got there.

Dan Hardy’s “biggest” MMA Win?

Unlike Fitch I think most can agree that Dan Hardy’s biggest MMA win was his last fight. In his last fight he beat Mike Swick. This win not only moved Hardy up the MMA rankings, but it seems to have secured him a title shot against GSP.

Everyone Else

With Swick accounted for, here are some of the other “big names” that Hardy has beaten…

Gono (yeah, that one), Marcus Davis

To me the trend seems to continue. Gono was top 10(ish) at points, but certainly debated. Davis flirted with top 10, but he certainly wasn’t a staple and he had lost to Mike Swick a year before the Hardy fight.

More of the same?

Dan Hardy is 23-6 (1 NC) and sitting at #4(ish) on most ranking sites, but who are his “Big” wins. Swick was certainly top 10…mmmaaayyyyybbbbbeeee “top 5″, but that’s one fight and Hardy was in the “top 10″ on some MMA ranking lists even before that fight. MMA fighters like Gono and Davis are “solid” wins, but neither is likely to get you a title shot.

Mike Swick

Since we’ve mentioned him a few times, hereeeeeeeee’ssss Mike. Mike sits on most top 10 MMA ranking lists and was top 5 on several prior to the Hardy loss mentioned above.

Mike Swick’s “biggest” MMA win?

Looking over the list I think many would say Marcus Davis. Despite Davis having lost two in a row, it’s important to remember that heading into the fight with Swick he had won 11 fights in a row. Although I won’t give Davis his own section (I should), it’s important to note that his win streak includes fighters like Shonie Carter, Pete Spratt and Paul Taylor. Yes they are names, but I don’t expect a lot of hate mail from failing to call them “top 10″.

Everyone Else

Ok, so Davis is out of the way that leaves us with…

The crow? David had just lost to Franklin (and followed his loss against Swick with a loss to Villasenor), so he “might” have still been top 10 on some MMA Ranking lists (though barely). This fight also happened at middleweight, so what (if any) impact this had on Swick will vary from list to list and person to person.

After the Crow?

Joe Riggs, Josh Burkman, etc.

Some “solid” fighters, some named fighters, some guys you should not take lightly, but “top 10″? Riggs was in and out of the top 10 around that time, so I could see some arguing it. That really becomes part of the issue though, we aren’t talking about wins against Chuck or Nog, we are talking about wins against possibly 8-10(ish) guys that popped on and off the list. Solid wins, no doubt, but not the career defining type of fight some seem to believe.

Play it again…

Swick is a great fighter that I honestly think has the potential to beat almost anyone, but look at the overall situation. He was top 5(ish), a single win away from a title shot and who had he beat? Keep in mind I’m not saying he was smashing cans, but take a minute to honestly look over Mike Swick’s fight history and you’ll see a series of “good” wins, and not a pair of wins over #1 & #2 ranked guys.

Nate “The Great”

I have to stress that I’m talking about Nate at the time of his first fight with Anderson Silva. Over his last few fights Nate has beaten fighters like Maia, Gouveia, and Kampmann. Awesome wins and again, I don’t think many have issue with Nate being “top 5″(ish) right now. What I want to focus on is prior to his fight with Anderson Silva.

Nate’s “Biggest” MMA win…at the time!

This situation is interesting because Nate fought Anderson 2007-07-07. Prior to that date I think there would be a fair amount of discussion regarding who his biggest win was. You’ve got several fighters like Misaki, Salaverry and Doerkson. All “solid” fighters, but lots of fans wouldn’t put any of them “top 10″. Given the time frame we are speaking about I’m inclined to say it was Misaki, but I’d gladly concede I was wrong if someone offered me a cookie.

Skipping to the point

Looking at Nate’s career prior to the Anderson fight we see…solid MMA wins. There are some “names” on the list, some well known fighters, but again…no #1 or even #5 types of guys. Nate was fighting for a title, he was considered “top 10″ by almost everyone, but who were his “big” wins?

For those that might have skipped to this section I again want to emphasize that my purpose here isn’t to claim that Nate didn’t deserve his MMA ranking. My purpose here is to show *HOW* he achieved his MMA ranking. Looking at his opponents prior to the Anderson fight it’s clear most weren’t “top 10″, but yet the overall quality (though not “top 10″) and the quantity was sufficient to get him bumped up the various ranking lists.

Shane Carwin

I’m going to jump up in weight and take a look at Shane Carwin now. The guy has been due to fight for the UFC heavyweight title for several months. He’s almost universally considered “top 10″ (or damn close) and yet…

Shane Carwin’s “Biggest” MMA win?

This one should be almost universally agreed on as being Gonzaga. This was Carwin’s last fight. The interesting thing about Gonzaga is where he “ranks”. Heading into the Carwin fight Gonzaga had won two in a row…but against much weaker competition. Prior to those two wins he had dropped two in a row (to Randy and Werdum).

There are some that will forever claim Gonzaga as “top 10″ for his win over Cro Cop. At the other end of the arguement you have people that see how spotty Gonzaga has been. Most would admit he has “top 10 potential”, but he seems to be unable to put together a great streak.

For the sake of this discussion let’s just say Gonzaga was top 10. Say he was tied and de facto 11 if you need, but just go with me on this please.

Everyone else

I could bet a lot of MMA fans they couldn’t name 3 other people Shane Carwin beat and make a lot of money. I mean a *LOT* of money. To put it in perspective…I can normally name 7 or 8 without looking. Considering Carwin has 11 wins and I’m me…that’s not a good number. I will also point out something I find amusing and that is that Carwin has wins over three fighters who’s records are: 1-2, 1-3, 1-4. It doesn’t mean anything, it just amuses me because I see numbers as shapes. *shrugs*

Honestly, this is *NOT* to bash Shane in anyway. I’m OK with him getting a title shot, I’m OK with him being “top 10″. Seriously though, remove Gonzaga from the list and take a shot at listing 4 or 5 other fighters he’s faced.

Final time

Here we have a contender for the UFC heavyweight title. The Gonzaga win “might” be top 10 and I honestly can’t imagine anyone being able to keep a straight face in telling me anyone else Carwin beat was “top 15″.

Keep this in mind

I’m quite certain some will read this and disagree about one fighter being “top 10″ at the time or perhaps with the choice of “biggest” win, but please keep in mind the spirit of the rant. Every one of the fighters above is quite good and many of their victories are against other fighters that are quite good.

Where things get confusing is when people try to bash a fighter like Rogers (compare him to Carwin prior to Rogers losing to Fedor…go on, explain how Carwin was “top 10″ and Rogers was a “can”). On some rankings lists we are starting to see fighters like Mamed Khalidov showing up. His last win was his biggest, and he has been on an incredible run. Maybe he’ll be “top 5″, maybe he won’t, but what he’s already done is pretty impressive.

What I think people need to realize is that there is a big different between beating “three cans” and beating 3 “top 15″ people. One of the great things about this site is that you can see where fighters actually stand rating wise. Sure Fighter A might not be “top 10″ and they might not be 2k rated, but if they are 1800 that’s still quite solid. There is a lot more to be said about a fighter that beats three 1800 rated guys than one that beats three 1400 rated guys.

With a broader knowledge of MMA fight histories it is easy to see that even some of the best got there with some “weaker” wins and that doesn’t take away from their greatness in anyway. Please try to keep that in mind as you look at various ranking lists. Sure someone might not have beaten a single 2k+ rated fighter, but a several wins over 1800 & 1900 rated guys is still damn impressive!

Disclaimer

My goal with this series of rants is to look at current MMA rankings in more detail. It is also an attempt to help people better understand the MMA ranking system used on this site. It would be nice if out of all of this more people understood the distinction between the MMA ranking system used on the site and the actual MMA rankings that we see. Keep in mind that matchmaking, judging, refereeing and commissions all play a role in the final MMA rankings that we see. If something looks “off” it’s not necessarily because of the system.

GSP

I would hope most don’t have a problem with GSP being #1 on the welterweight list. He’s almost universally considered one of the three best pound for pound fighters on the planet. In fact, I’m really only putting this section here because it’d be silly to talk welterweights and not mention him. Having said that…well there really isn’t much else to say.

Perhaps the only thing to note is that GSP has spoken about training for the Olympics. His recent fight activity has been a bit lower with only two fights in each of the last two years. Overall though his record and his rating are incredible. If GSP doesn’t fight very much or happens to suffer a loss and then focuses on the Olympics his ranking might drop. This isn’t an insult to him and I trust he would climb right back up the list *IF* he even drops in the first place.

Jake Shields

Possibly the most controversial ranking currently at welterweight is that of Jake Shields. Lots of MMA fans haven’t seen him fight and some that have didn’t enjoy the fights very much. Given that opinions are like assholes (meaning I don’t want to hear other peoples’…or however the saying goes) I’m going to focus on the facts.

Shields has now won 13 straight fights. Some of the people he’s beaten on that streak are:

Mayhem Miller
Robbie Lawler
Paul Daley
Nick Thompson
Carlos Condit
Yushin Okami

One thing that stands out from the above list is that half of the fighters are “middleweights”. This leads to some discussion of where Jake should be ranked at middleweight and how it might affect his welterweight ranking. Overall it seems as though welterweight is the best class for Jake, and since a majority of his recent fights have been at that weight he remains there. If Jake chooses to stay at middleweight though, then he will be removed from the welterweight list.

Regardless of the weight Jake chooses to fight at I think it’s a bit sad that he doesn’t seem to get as much positive attention as he should. I know some people find his fights to be boring at times, but I didn’t see anyone holding up “Wall”-”n”-”Stall” signs for Randy at UFC 105 and he’s still pretty loved. Remember that prior to the Miller fight Shields had ended 8 fights in a row via (t)KO/Submission.

My goal here isn’t to get people to “like” Jake Shields as much as it is to get them to acknowledge what he’s done. You don’t have to enjoy watching him or like him on any level, but at least be able to accurately discuss what he’s accomplished thus far in his career. Too often it seems a fighter being “liked” is grounds for being bumped up a few spots on the ranking lists.

Jon Fitch

Speaking of fighters that have done well, but some find boring…Heeeeerreeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssss Jon! You have to go back over two years to find the last time Jon didn’t go to decision. Some might not find that very impressive, but they probably didn’t see the GSP fight. I honestly have no idea how this guy made it to decision. He’s continually shown a willingness to keep going and I think that has slowly earned him more and more fans.

Prior to that loss to GSP Fitch had won 15 in a row, and since he’s had two solid wins against Gono and Thiago. The potential problem I see coming is who he’s being matched up against. From what I’ve heard his next fight is to be against Mike Pierce. I think Pierce is an interesting prospect, but Fitch is almost universally ranked between #2 and #4 at welterweight. Why he is being given an unranked 10-2 fighter is beyond me. Perhaps it’s just one more easy fight before a rematch against GSP, or maybe there’s more to it.

What I do have to point out though is that by having an “easier” fight it does open the door for others to pass him, even if just temporarily. We’ll have to see how the fight goes and who other fighters beat in the coming months. For me though, the risk vs reward for Fitch just feels off in this fight and I hope his next opponent is much higher ranked.

Dan Hardy

Speaking of moving up the ranks, here’s Dan Hardy. A win over Swick and he finds himself sitting at #4 currently in the welterweight rankings.

Time for a quick tangent to talk about Thiago Alves (sorry Hardy). Alves was sitting around #2 or #3 on most welterweight ranking lists for awhile. Thus far in 2009 he has just 1 fight and it is a loss. This is a case that shows the fluidity of the rankings on this site. We didn’t drop Alves off the list for a single loss. We didn’t do any wild leapfrogging with a 1-0 fighter. Rather, Hardy got hot and won a couple good matches recently and at the same time Alves suffered a loss and went inactive.

I point this situation out because it seems like at times people look at the rankings and assume they’ve been chiseled in stone for years and will never change. That is actually about as far away from the truth as you can get. If Alves were to compete at UFC 106 and score a solid win, they would hop back ahead of Hardy. When looking at the rankings on this site, please always keep in mind the timing of things. A fighter is going to be a bit lower following a loss. At the same time, a fighter on a winning streak will be higher.

One other thing we can see from the Hardy’s current ranking is that it’s reasonable for him to get the title shot. I know some blast the mma-elo system because they think #2 always has to fight #1 and that we’ll never see certain fights and blahblahblah. That, again, is simply untrue. What the system promotes is reasonable fights, competitive fights, respectful fights. That doesn’t mean the #2 guy has to always get the title shot or that a fighter should keep getting rematches against Anderson Silva until the Spider takes 400 rating from them.

In this case we see Shields at #2 (not in the UFC), we see Fitch (recent title shot, loss) at #3 and Hardy at #4. I think giving Hardy the title shot makes perfect sense in this case. It would be nice if he’d had just one more win to get his rating up a bit higher prior to the GSP fight. When making matches for fighters like GSP/Anderson/Fedor though it’s hard at times and this is certainly acceptable.

I didn’t really say much about Hardy in this section, so I’ll just point out that he’s currently on a seven fight win streak and that is the longest of his career. If GSP beats Hardy that would push his current win streak to seven, which would tie the longest of his career.

Diego Sanchez

Diego is currently still showing at welterweight despite his last two fights being at lightweight. Following his fight against BJ Penn (in December *crosses fingers*) Diego will be moved to the lightweight rankings.

Matt Hughes

Hughes currently sits at #7 on our current list of MMA weltweights. Some people feel this is too high, and some think Hughes should retire. The thing I find interesting is who Hughes has lost to recently. He lost to GSP (just like everyone else, but at least he still has one win against him), he lost to Alves (#2-#4 ranked welterweight) and five years ago he lost to BJ Penn. That’s it, those are Hughes “recent” losses.

Matt is obviously getting older and I know some think the sport has passed him by. What I always find amusing though is how some people perceive losing to someone great as somehow meaning you suck. Look, if I go into a double elimination tennis tourney and pull Nadal and Federer as my first two opponents, I’m going to lose badly. That doesn’t mean I’m horrible (I am, but ignore that for now), it doesn’t mean I’m not top 10 (I’m not), it just means I lost to some really great people. Technically speaking I could be the third best tennis player in the world (still not), but I happened to face those couple people that are just better than me.

The situation I speak of with Matt certainly isn’t unique to him either. It seems to have become common place for a fighter to lose and then be dubbed “a can” or some other storage container. The logical part of my brain (the whole thing) at that point beings to hurt. You see, if someone is a “can” and someone else beat them…how the hell is that an accomplishment!?. Seriously, here we have Fighter A…they just defeated Fighter B…we now call Fighter B a can. If Fighter B isn’t any good then why the hell is everyone drinking Fighter A flavored kool-aid all of a sudden?!?

In the situation above I’m not saying Fighter A isn’t good, I’m not even saying Fighter B doesn’t suck, I’m just trying to point out the reasonable level of confusion some might have. If I walk up to a girl at a bar wearing my “Yes, I’m Evil Pooh” T-shirt and she shoots me down and my response is “she was ugly”, doesn’t that mean I just got shot down by an ugly chick?

How does that help my case!? Wouldn’t it be better if I went, “damn, that girl was WAYYYY out of my league, an 11, three time Miss-Redheadtopia”. In much the same vein, wouldn’t it behoove people to *PRAISE* the fighter that just lost. Something like “Wow, Fighter B is amazing, still has it, only lost to top guys and I think this helps show that Fighter A really is one of the top guys now”. Again, I’m throwing together fortune cookie scraps here, but I hope you get the idea.

Hughes’ activity (bet you didn’t think I remembered who I was talking about) has gone down considerably in recent years. With only one fight in 2009 and a single fight back in 2008 you have to wonder how many more fights he’ll have. Overall though I don’t think his losses to top 3 guys in the division are proof of his demise and I think there are a lot of newer fighters working their way up that Hughes would still give a challenge to.

Paulo Thiago

Since I’m ranting about things that don’t make sense to me, I’m now going to jump down to Paulo Thiago. Currently on the site he’s ranked #24. This is a pretty big contrast to some sites that have him ranked as high at #5 (last I checked).

Where things get interesting is when we look at this next fight. He is currently scheduled to face Jakob Volkmann at UFC 106. Volkmann is an interesting up and comer with a 9-0 record and only a couple of decision. Having said that, why the hell is the “#5 welterweight” facing a 9-0 prospect? If Thiago really is “top 5″ then this fight is horrible, it makes no sense, and people should vehemently object.

If we consider another possibility though…What if Thiago really is just a top 20(ish) level fighter right now? Looking at his record we see he is 11-1. That’s a pretty good record. Where things get interesting is looking at his progression. Here on this site his progression has been steady over the past couple of years as he pieced together a solid 11 fight win streak. On other ranking lists he basically never got mentioned until he beat Josh Koscheck. As soon as he did that on other lists he immediately shot into the top 10.

Following that win, Thiago took on Fitch (see above) and lost the first fight of his career. On mma-elo he’s got a solid rating and is still working his way up the list. On other sites he’s sitting very high and I honestly can’t fathom how killing Jacob Volkmann with mind bullets 0.1 seconds into the fight would possibly help his ranking.

This really seems like a case where a fighter had a big win and then an almost expected loss. I don’t think Paulo’s current ranking on the site is insulting to him and I think it’d be quite easy for him to move back up the list. Beating Volkmann would be a solid win and after that he would hopefully be given a step up in competition again.

Other Possible Matchups

Much like I did with the lightweights the other day these are just a few random matchups that seem to make sense from a ranking point of view and might yield interesting (and meaningful) results.

Fitch Vs Alves 2

This seems like a solid rematch. The first time they fought was almost three and a half years ago. Both have lost to GSP, both have beaten Hironaka.

Rumble Vs Paulo Thiago

We spoke about where Paulo really “fits” in the current welterweight rankings and I think this fight would be interesting. Rumble is a fighter on his way up and I think both fighters stand to gain from this fight.

The Heat Vs Semtex

Karo seems to be floating out in the ranking abyss somewhere. He almost got a title shot, had some issues, and things have just been “off” ever since. With Karo’s last fight ruled a no contest and a slew of decisions prior to that Karo really needs to get some momentum going.

In a very different situation is Paul Daley. Daley has won four straight since losing to “The Goat”. He just won his UFC debut against Kampmann and his style is sure keep UFC fans interested. His upcoming fight against Condit should be entertaining and maybe “heat vs semtex” could follow?

Shields Vs ???

None of these are likely to happen, but I think some matches that would shed some light on the welterweight rankings would be…

Shields Vs Hughes
Shields Vs Karo
Shields Vs Fitch

Most of those might not turn out to be the most entertaining fights for some people, but I think they’d help clear up the welterweight picture quite a bit. A slightly more likely, and also beefier fight might be Shields Vs Dan Henderson at 185.

Is there no one else?

As with yesterday’s rant, please let me know anyone I left out. If there are any fighters that still seem out of place or that you would like a more detailed explanation of, please don’t hesitate to ask. One of the biggest benefits of the ranking system used is that everything is clear, fair and consistent. I’ll try to get middleweights done by Thursday, so if you have specific questions, please get them in now.

-Evil Pooh

Fedor Haters

Some of my biggest concerns center around Fedor’s fight and the inevitable aftermath. The way I see it we have two likely situations that aren’t very appealing and anything outside of those two are even worse.

If Fedor Wins

If Fedor wins he’ll be called a can smasher by some “MMA fans”. These are primarily the people that didn’t think he was great back in Pride, didn’t think he’d beat Tim, didn’t think he’d beat AA and still gave him almost no credit for either of those wins.

Here’s the deal, if Fedor hasn’t “proven” himself to some people yet he never will. Think about it, he’s beaten Big Nog twice (GOOD big nog). He’s beaten a prime Cro Cop (Scary cro cop!). He has a highlight reel that showcases almost every aspect of MMA: striking, submissions, grappling, etc.

If people aren’t capable of acknowledging how incredible Fedor is and how unprecedented what he already has accomplished is, then there is no way they will after he beats an opponent most of the same people also underestimate.

If Fedor Loses

Everyone loses eventually in MMA, and Fedor has been on an insane run for a very long time. Even armed with the knowledge that everyone loses there are some that continue to wait for Fedor to have even the slightest slip up so they can “prove” he isn’t as good as others said.

As silly as it may seem, some will use a loss to Rogers as evidence that Fedor was overrated years ago and continues to be overrated today.

If something “else” happens

If anything besides a clean win or loss occurs then things could get even uglier. A bad decision, a potential NC, a “cut” or questionable stoppage. Bleh I can’t even begin to image the fallout from such a finish. Those things would ripple hard not only through the “hardcore” mma fan community, but also to the potential future fans that are tuning in special tonight.

Shields Haters

Though not nearly as big an issue as the Fedor haters, the Jake Shields haters are about as reasonable. Shields is someone that seems to constantly get no respect. Much like Fedor a win or a loss here won’t “define” his career. Just take a look at:

Jake Shields MMA Career

Here are some cliff notes…

- 23wins 4 losses 1draw
- 12 wins in a row
- last loss in December of 2004 (almost 5 years!)
- fights at multiple weight classes
- Wins over fighters like Carlos Condit, Yushin Okami, Nick Thompson, Paul Daley, and Robbie Lawler

There are other names on the list including other guys who’ve been “top 10″, guys who have gotten title shots, etc.

I really think Shields is another one of those guys where I have to claim I just don’t understand. Early in his career I know he leaned on his wrestling more (10 decisions), but his last 8 fights have ended via (t)KO or Sub. What more can you really ask of a fighter? He’s moved up in weight. He’s fought high ranked opponents. He’s finished his fights. I’m not asking people to put him #1 p4p, but there are some that still claim the guy isn’t even top 10.

My Hope

What I hope is that we get great fights tonight. I hope that all in attendance and all watching at home respect the athletes and the sport just a bit more after tonight. Unfortunately I know this isn’t likely to happen. Whether certain fighters win or lose there will be those ready to bash them. Would it be out of line to request that people at least realize that a fighter like Fedor isn’t going to prove his greatness in this one fight. On the same note he isn’t going to corrupt his legacy with this one fight either.

Fighters like Fedor, GSP, Anderson and many others have earned the position they have over many years and many fights. If you can’t acknowledge how incredible what they’ve done already is, then there is seriously no hope. GSP beating Hardy or Swick isn’t going to “solidify his legacy” and although I hope the Rogers fight is good, it won’t even begin to tell the story of Fedor.

Lets start with Fedor

A few years ago people were talking about him facing fighters like:

Tim Sylvia – 23-2 (ish) at the time
Arlovski – 15-5 (ish)

Fedor beats both of them and now people want him to take on:

Brock – 4-1
Cain – 6-0

See anything wrong with this picture?

Fedor beat Nog and Cro Cop. He Beat Arlovski and Sylvia. He’s been ducked by Randy and Barnett. Doesn’t a 6-0 Cain seem like a bit of a step down? I’m not bashing Cain here, but let’s be honest. If Fedor had never beaten Nog which fight would carry more weight? Fedor Vs Nog or Fedor Vs Kongo?

People ignore the concept of Fedor Vs Nog because he’s already done it twice, but the point is Fedor Vs Kongo simply pales in comparison. This is akin to the weight lifting example I gave because right now people are saying Fedor needs to prove himself by beating lesser opponents than he already has.

Make no mistake about it, Fedor *WILL* lose at some point (…maybe lol). I don’t know when or how. It could be sooner, it could be later. It could be to someone he’s already beaten or against someone that doesn’t even deserve to be in the ring with him.

Personally though I’d prefer that when it happens it be more like GSP Vs. Hughes. That felt like more of a “changing of the guard”. It was obvious GSP deserved to be in the ring. It was obvious that the winner was the “better” fighter, etc. Doesn’t that sound better than how GSP Vs Serra was?

How many people would actually consider Kongo #1 if he did beat Fedor in his next fight given his only “big” win is against Cro Cop and that he’s got losses recently against Herring and Cain.

Anderson Silva

Fedor’s name is too big of a hot button sometimes, but the point is the same for Anderson Silva. He has beaten Franklin (twice, kinda like Nog for Fedor if you must), he’s beat Henderson (a champion in his own right, etc.). Now the “top 10″ he’s faced with gives him fights like Cote and Thales. No offense to them, but they simply aren’t the same level of fighter that Henderson and Franklin are.

Realize that people were and some still are talking about Anderson facing a fighter like Bisping. This is no offense to Michael, but he doesn’t currently have a hall of fame resume. Some day he might and I wish him well. If he would beat Henderson, beat Vitor, beat Lawler, then I’d be game for him to get a shot against Anderson. For now though…really!??!

Let’s not forget GSP

I didn’t want people to think I ignored GSP, but it’s really just more of the same. He’s got wins over Hughes, over Sherk, over Alves, over Fitch, etc.

There are a few more fights you could make for him, but most aren’t nearly as compelling as what he’s already done.

The sad truth

The problem right now is you have people getting in the ring with guys like Anderson and Fedor not because they deserve it, but because they are who’s left!

The promoters have to continue putting on fights and doing what they can, but the truth is it takes a lot longer for a fighter to “build” up to being at such a high level than it does for Anderson, GSP or Fedor to knock them down.

What is now happening is that we get fights like Anderson Vs. Cote and people clamoring for Fedor Vs. people that don’t even have 10 fights.

The answer in my opinion is to focus a bit more on the people making that run at these great champions. Instead of just saying Fedor needs to fight a now 6-0 Cain, let’s give Cain two or three really good match-ups so he can get to where he should be. Lets give him some hard, battle tested competition so he can be 8-0 or 9-1 and people *KNOW* he should be fighting Fedor. Not because he’s all that’s left that hasn’t lost to him, but because he’s genuinely earned the right to fight him.

Consider a fighter like Gonzaga that recently some said was going to destory Fedor. He beats Cro Cop then loses to Randy…then loses to Werdum (again). He gets a couple wins against weaker competition (no offense Justin, but it’s true) and then turns around and loses to Carwin. I truly believe Gonzaga could reach that upper echelon, but he certainly isn’t there now and people talking like he is are just insulting Fedor.

The main worry is that if the up and coming fighters aren’t given good matchups or are simply thrown in with these fighters too early it leaves us in a very bad situation. Eventually Fedor beats a 6-0 cain and a 4-1 brock and now he’s got to prove himself against a 7-1 dos santos…then uhhhh…frank mir? Ok uhhhhhh Justin McCully? See how quickly we head to the Kimbo example from the subject?

Instead of saying Fedor (or Anderson Silva, or GSP) needs to fight half a dozen people that really aren’t quite there yet, lets see those half dozen people fight amongst each other and see who rises up to the point where they truly are deserving of the shot against him. If not then we wind up GSP Vs. Serra instead of GSP Vs Hughes. We wind up with Anderson Silva Vs Travis Lutter instead of Anderson Silva Vs. Rich Franklin.

GSP Vs Matt Serra (the first time)

It was back in April of 2007 that the UFC decided to guarantee Matt Serra a shot at the title for winning a reality TV show. Here are some assorted facts from just before the fight:

Matt Serra:
8wins
4losses
1789 rating
1W – 1L in his last 2
3W – 3L in his last 6

GSP:
13wins
1loss
2102 rating
Won 6 in a row after losing to Matt Hughes
Last win was a victory over the very same Matt Hughes mentioned above
Won 7 in a row prior to that one loss

That is where the fighters basically stood coming into the fight. Now lets look a bit deeper at what they had to “gain” and “lose”, what they were “risking” and what their possible “reward” was.

Matt Serra – Risk(s)
Injury.

Honestly, that’s it. He was .500 in his last 2 fights, .500 in his last 6 fights. He’d just earned a title shot by avenging a loss to Shonie Carter and winning a very weird decision over Chris Lytle.

If Matt Serra were to lose this fight no one would say anything. He wouldn’t plummet in the rankings (he wasn’t top anything most places to begin with).

GSP – Risk(s)
His status/ranking.

GSP at this time was considered the #1 welterweight pretty much everywhere. He had won six in a row, he’d just avenged his only loss ever, and was considered by many one of the top p4p fighters in the world.

Matt Serra – Reward(s)
I don’t really have to speculate on the potential rewards for Matt Serra since I know what did happen. For winning this fight Serra immediately leapfrogged a few dozen other fights and landed squarely at #1 on several ranking lists. Additionally, Serra went back to the TUF house as a coach.

Serra also remained very high on the many ranking lists for quite awhile. His next fight after beating GSP didn’t happen until over 1 year later. Following that loss to GSP in the rematch, Serra remained on many lists until over a year later again when he finally had another fight and lost to Matt Hughes.

I say none of this to take away from Serra as a fighter or as a person, but simply to illustrate the point that Serra literally built *YEARS* off of this one single win. That shows just how much “reward” was available for him.

GSP – Reward(s)
Equaling his previous career high of 7 wins in a row?

In all seriousness, there was nothing for GSP to gain from this fight. Serra was an unranked(ish) fighter that though liked, was a tremendous underdog. After just beating the only fighter to beat him and the man considered the greatest welterweight of all time, GSP got matched up against someone no one mentioned prior to the show.

Imagine if GSP had simply beaten Serra on that night, and I’m not talking about a really brutal beating, but just a solid, undisputed unanimous decision. Looking back from today would we mention Matt Serra when talking about GSP’s best wins?

When talking to a friend of yours about why GSP is one of the p4p best would you have even gotten to Serra’s name given the list of other fighters GSP has beaten? Even now when looking back at GSP’s career do you mention his win over Serra?

Heath Herring Vs Brock Lesnar

A more recent fight that helps illustrate bad Risk vs Reward in matchmaking happened last August when Heath Herring got matched up against Brock Lesnar.

Brock Lesnar:
1win
1loss
Coming off a submission loss in his UFC debut

Heath Herring:
28 wins
13 losses
Coming off a win over Cheick Kongo following a “loss” to Big Nog that could have easily been stopped in Herring’s favor.

What makes this fight so weird (from a ranking point of view) is that Brock Lesnar actually wound up higher ranked for beating Heath Herring than Heath Herring would have been if he’d won. Please take a second and think that over.

Heath Herring was obviously the higher ranked fighter going into the fight. He’d fought some of the best in the world, he’d just beat an up and coming contender in Kongo, he’d gotten within fractions of a second of beating Big Nog (#2 in the world at the time), etc.

Meanwhile, Brock Lesnar was 1 and 1 at the time. His first fight ever was a win over a guy that was 3-5 (3 wins, FIVE losses). After that he fought Frank Mir and lost that fight in the first round.

Knowing all of that, I pray it’s safe to say that Heath Herring was ranked higher at the time of the fight. Now lets look at the fight from both sides. First the side we know…

Brock Wins
Brock Lesnar beat Heath Herring via decision and in doing so earned a title shot. That’s right a fighter beat a 3-5 fighter, got submitted in the first round of his next fight, and by winning a decision in their third ever fight was given a title shot in the “best organization in the world”.

Yet again I am forced to point out that I take nothing away from Brock, but rather it is important to realize the sheer amount of “reward” this fight garnered. A decision win over Heath Herring was enough to get a 2-1 fighter a title shot in the biggest organization in the world. That is a *LOT* of reward.

Heath Wins
Lets now take a look at it from Heath Herring’s side of things. If Heath Herring wins does he get a title shot? If so then why wasn’t this just billed as a #1 contender fight? Also, if Heath Herring wins that means Brock is now 1-2. His only win coming against a 3-5 fighter and he’s lost two in a row in the UFC. Would Heath have even gotten much credit for beating Brock at that point?

Going back to the question I posed about mentioning Matt Serra when explaining GSP’s career, would a 1 win, 2 loss Brock Lesnar really make the list at that point for Heath? Remember Heath has wins over Evan Tanner (his first loss ever after winning 6 in a row to start his career), and Igor Volvchanchyn (seriously look up his fights if you want to be entertained…and frightened a little). Heath also had fought fighters such as: Fedor, Cro cop, Big Nog(a few times lol), Vitor Belfort, and many others.

Put yourself on August 10th, 2008 after Heath Herring beat a now 1 and 2 Brock Lesnar and tell me how you’d use that win in a discussion to promote Heath Herring without mentioning Brock was “large”.

Can’t have it both ways

What I find interesting is that in a lot of cases the bad matchmaking relies on both fight outcomes to justify the fight. For instance, people try to give GSP credit for beating Matt Serra in the rematch, but the only reason for that is that Serra actually won the first fight. Had GSP simply won the first time, no one would even mention it.

In a similar case some like to claim, “beating Brock would have helped Heath’s career” because they are piggybacking on the fact that Brock actually won and got a title shot. If Herring simply won and Brock fell to 1 and 2, no one would have been accepting that. To make matters even worse, Brock is still very early in his MMA career. His loss against Frank Mir is already discounted by some and if he were to win the rematch many will “forget” it entirely.

It seems very likely that even if Heath had won and Brock still went on to be great in the next couple of years people wouldn’t have given Heath very much credit because Brock was still so “new”.

Again I pose a question, what is the scenario where Heath Herring really would have gained from beating Brock Lesnar? Obviously a win at that time wasn’t going to do him much good, and Brock had far more to gain from a win.

Know a scenario where a win over Brock would have really gained Heath something? A year or two down the road after Brock had actually fought a few more people. If Brock came into the fight at even 5-2 as a slightly more established fighter then the risk vs reward would have been more even between the two fighters.

Year of the Upset

It’s fairly common to hear people talk about big upsets and what not in MMA, but understand they are bred out of poor matchmaking. When you see a fight announced try to step back for a second and look at it from all angles. Ask yourself:

“What if Fighter A wins? What do they gain? Where do they stand?”
“What if Fighter B wins? What do they gain? Where do they stand?”

In many cases these “bad fights” are simply inevitable because the matchup makes a “good” outcome almost impossible.

Disclaimer

I know some people will read this and think I’m hating on Fighter A or Fighter B specifically and that simply isn’t the case. My intention is to piggyback onto this rant tomorrow and address another key point in discussions like this. Till then I’m off to do other evil things…