Obviously personal tastes can skew things, but here’s what I saw…

Round 1

Round 1 was all Carwin…by a LOT. Brock tried a takedown and got clipped on the way in and landed in neutral position. Carwin stood up right after and soon proceeded to dominate the standup.

Brock got put down and spent a couple minutes on his back getting hammered away on. I won’t say the fight should have been stopped, but we’ve all seen fights stopped for *MUCH* less. If this fight were stopped two minutes in, think what people would be saying.

At the end of the round with about one minute left Brock gets back to his feet, has Carwin against the cage and even with Carwin gassed still doesn’t get the takedown. In fact, Carwin appears to be locking up a Kimura as the round ends.

Even the announcers call this a 10-8 round for Carwin.

Round 2

Round 2 is all Brock. Sadly though, not because of what he does, but because of what Carwin can’t do. Carwin is gassed and takes about 2 seconds to retract his first punch of the round. Brock does a fairly weak takedown attempt (by his standards) and get’s Carwin down.

From there Brock could have ended the fight via tickling if he wanted. Carwin was completely gassed.

Brock’s win or Carwin’s loss

Often times in sport people will ponder whether one team won the fight or the other team lost. I think in the case of this fight it’s obvious that Carwin lost it.

I’m not hating on Brock here, but he didn’t come right out and dominate with his wrestling. He didn’t beat Carwin at the standup game. He didn’t sub Carwin off his back. Those are all things Brock could have done to “win” the fight.

Carwin on the other hand pushed too hard too early. In the pre-fight rant I mentioned the uncertainties surrounding Carwin and this came true. He didn’t have the gas tank for it, he didn’t stay composed and adjust to the fight as it happened, etc.

The good for Brock

Brock showed heart. As silly as it sounds there were a lot of people that expected Brock to drop to his knees and tapout as soon as he took one solid shot.

Obviously, that’s a very silly thing to think. Brock competed at wrestling and football. Somehow people let his “fake wrestling” overshadow everything else. Wrestling is an incredibly difficult sport both physically and mentally. You don’t get as good as Brock at anything without having heart.

The bad of the good

Here’s where people again flip flop on me and think I’m back to being a hater…

Brock is an MMA fighter, he holds the heavyweight title and he’s a grown ass man!!! Saying “he didn’t tap” borders on an insult in my opinion. Look at all the fighters that fight injured, that struggle through fights, that refuse to give up.

That’s part of the pedigree, it’s part of the job, it’s part of who they are as a person. People don’t usually rant and rave about how brave A-Rod is for walking down to first base after getting beaned in the hip. People don’t lose their mind every time Peyton goes back to the huddle after being sacked.

The bigger issue

The bigger issue here is that saying Brock has “heart” perfectly illustrates the struggle between where people say Brock is and where he actually is. Let me explain…

If Brock is #1 in the world…

If Brock is the clear cut #1 heavyweight in the world. If Brock is the favorite against everyone. If Brock is a professional MMA fighter and the person others should aspire to be, then you can’t make comments like “heart” about him.

No one talked about “heart” when Anderson Silva came back against Lutter or Henderson. People never mentioned “heart” about Fedor in his fight against Rogers or Arlovski.

You see, if a fighter is truly at that elite level then these things are known. The fighter isn’t going to give up. The fighter is going to try to find a way to win. These are known.

If Brock Lesnar is an up and comer

On the other hand, if Brock is an up and comer, then all of these comments make sense. When a fighter is new we just don’t know how they’ll react to different situations.

Fighters can panic on their back or when they are close to being submitted. Some fighters fold like a lawn chair when hit. Other fighters breakdown mentally when their opponent doesn’t wilt under their opening gambit.

In this context, saying things like “heart” make perfect sense.

See the conflict?

If Brock is #1 and all dominate and known to be awesome, etc. then the fact that he did a basic sub on a completely gassed opponent he overpowers is *NOT* news, it is *NOT* a compliment, it is *NOT* reasonable praise.

If you see the potential in Brock though, and you recognize where he is and where he can be, then you can talk about heart. If you see Brock as an up and comer then you can mention him using some sub techniques and not being “just a wrestler”.

What you cannot do though is claim someone is the all mighty best in the world and then claim them doing basic things that every top 1000 MMA fighter can do as being special.

Bottom Line

Against Carwin, Brock proved to some people that he is an MMA fighter. However, he still needs a few more fights before he proves he’s the best in the world.

If Brock Wins

First, here are my predictions if Brock wins.

The huggers will…

Claim Brock is #1. Which shouldn’t be a surprise because they were claiming he was #1 (or at least #2) before the win. They will probably contend he is unbeatable and that his reign will be longer than Fedor’s.

The Haters will…

Claim Brock won because of his size. Get upset with his intro, his exit, his post fight commentary, the look on his face during the tale of the tape and with how he won (even if by eye beam 0.2 seconds into the fight).

If Brock loses

On the other hand, if Brock loses we’ll be hearing…

The Huggers…

Will point out he was coming off injury and suddenly be perfectly content to mention that Brock is still a little green.

The Haters…

Will take this as proof that Brock doesn’t belong in the UFC, or MMA in general.

Things to think about

Here are just some talking points that seem to often get ignored by both sides. I don’t feel any one point should decide how people view Brock, but I think all points should be acknowledged in the making of such a decision.

Activity

Brock has basically gone a year without fighting. Some might “defend” that by saying he was injured. However, isn’t an athlete being injured worse than just taking time off for family or even serving a suspension from a competition point of view?

Brock is a new fighter and claimed as a huge draw. Yet after tonight he will have fought six times in three years. That’s about 2/3 the activity of your average fighter.

Activity is a very important aspect of MMA because so much ties into it. Fighters can get injured in training camp, they can break down mentally, they are forced to fight at less than 100%, etc.

Success

Here is what we know about the five fights so far…

One was a can. One was a loss. Two were against non-top 10 opponents.

Is that really the roadmap to being the #1 heavyweight in the world?

I feel there are a lot of people that don’t hate Brock, but can’t fathom how anyone can put him #1. If people called him a strong prospect, a bad matchup for people, a potential future #1, then I don’t think you’d see as much hate. Heck, a win over Carwin and I’ll entertain discussions of Brock being top 10!

Remember, most fighters have loses, but when one loss is 20% of your career…it weighs heavier. The same with the weak first fight.

Uncertainties with Carwin

Where does Carwin really stand? I know this is about Brock, but a lot will use his fight against Carwin as “proof” of where he stands.

In my opinion there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding Carwin. How does he handle possibly being put on his back. How deep into a fight can he go.

Realize that Carwin has a great win streak and a clear ability to end a fight. However, his two biggest and most recent wins come against two of the most bi-polar heavyweights the division currently has. Both Mir and Napao are believed capable of top 5 status and both have had brain fart loses in their careers.

Right now I think Carwin has done enough with what he’s been given to be a legit top 10 fighter, but I know some will be curious to see where he stands after another couple fights against quality competition.

The truth

Brock is still a young fighter despite all the promoting. A fighter’s sixth fight can be very important, but it will not determine his legacy. People constantly want that last fight to mean everything and in MMA it simply doesn’t.

My biggest hope for this fight is that Brock is healthy and win or lose he stays healthy. If Brock could get back in the ring by the end of September and then fight again at year end it would help answer a lot of questions.

The UFC Heavyweight division is still very unclear. Carwin can use a couple more high quality fights, Brock can use a few more fights. You’ve got people like Cain and JDS floating out there. There’s no doubt the division is more interesting than it was a few years ago, but I think it’ll be mid-late 2011 before things shakeout a bit.

Big Nog Vs Cain

A possible fight I keep hearing about is Cain Vs Big Nog. The fight intrigues me and although I’d prefer to see Cain get one more win first (Mir? Gonzaga? JDS?) I understand it. Given all the recent fight cancellations and Nog’s staph issues I probably won’t be sure of the fight until two weeks after it happens.

What I’d like to do is a play a big ole game of MMA Ranking What If assuming this fight actually does happen around February of 2010.

MMA Rankings If Big Nog Wins

I’m pondering about if Big Nog wins first because “big” comes before “Cain” alphabetically (technically so does ‘Antonio’).

The obvious question is “Where does Big Nog Rank among MMA heavyweights if he wins”. My biggest fear is that some will still put him below Brock Lesnar. Obviously that won’t happen on this site, but I’m talking in general. Some people seem to have Brock spot welded in at number two (some have him #1 /boggle) and I wonder if Big Nog beating Cain would be enough to sway their opinion.

Recent Fights

The only real case that can be made for Brock being ahead of Nog ranking wise in MMA is recent fights. Understand that Brock only has 5 fights (and only 4 wins). Nog on the other hand has been around the sport for ten years and has over 30 wins (and only five loses).

Where things get interesting though is if we look at who each fighter has beaten recently (or ever in the case of Brock).

Frank Mir

Brock’s last fight was against Frank Mir, and he won. However, just a couple years ago Brock also lost to Frank Mir. Despite being 1-1 against Mir, Brock still edges out Nog who’s 0-1 against Mir.

Randy Couture

Prior to beating Frank Mir in a rematch, Brock beat Randy Couture. Coincidentally enough, Big Nog beat Randy in his last fight.

Heath Herring

In order to “earn” his UFC heavyweight title shot, Brock beat Heath Herring. This is interesting because Big Nog had already beaten Heath one year earlier.

Everyone else

Ok, so “everyone else” is a bit misleading because the only other win (and fight) remaining for Brock was about two and a half years ago against someone who was 3-5 at the time.

Does Nog move ahead of Brock win a win over Cain?

Do keep in mind that we are being incredibly gracious to Brock in the above comparisons. If we go back even to 2006 for Nog we see 1-1 against Barnett and a win over Werdum. Ignoring that though, you have to ask yourself if a single win over Mir recently means more than a win over Sylvia and a win over Cain (in this hypothetical situation).

As a potential follow-up (that I sadly know is needed for some), if Nog beating Cain doesn’t put him ahead of Lesnar, then would a follow-up win against Mir put him ahead of Lesnar? At that point both would be 1-1 against Mir, both would have beaten Couture and Herring. Would the wins over Sylvia and Cain then be enough to offset Min Soo Kim? Oh yeah, Min Soo Kim and 8(ish) years of being one of the very best heavyweights (and overall MMA fighters) in the world. If you still answer “no”, please explain.

MMA Rankings if Cain wins

Now we move onto the letter “C” and ponder how things will look if Cain should win. Things are a bit murkier because of the lack of direct comparisons. There is still plenty of data to look at though.

Activity

Assuming a fight in February (and Brock likely out until the middle of 2010) we see:

Cain – 8 fights in about 3.5 years. That is a bit skewed because after 2 fights in 2006 Cain didn’t fight at all in 2007. Still we’d expect around 10(ish) fights during that time frame so Cain has an activity level of about 80%.

Brock – Assuming Brock doesn’t fight again until 2010-06-02 that gives him 5 fights in 3 years. We’d expect 9(ish) during that time, so that gives Brock an activity percentage of abot 55%. If Brock did have a fight that early (seems unlikely at this point) that would be 6 fights in 3 years, or about 66% activity level.

Either way, activity has to go to Cain even holding the year off against him.

Strength of Schedule

Brock has a sick Strength of Schedule for being so early into his career. What gets overlooked is that Cain hasn’t had it super easy. Right now it stands at:

Brock – 1820 SoS
Cain – 1763 SoS

Remember that we are talking about a post-nog fight situation here though. Following the Nog fight Cain’s SoS would increase to 1805(ish). The gap wasn’t huge to begin with and the potential fight against Nog just bridges the gap even more.

Following a potential fight with Nog, Brock would still have an advantage in SoS, but certainly not as large as some might expect.

Results

As silly as it may sound, I have to point this out:

Brock – 4 wins, 1 loss
Cain (potenitally) – 8 wins, 0 losses

Does Cain move ahead of Brock if he wins?

This question is even more interesting because I think it raises additional questions about Brock being as high as #2. A win over Nog (though awesome) would likely not make Cain the #2 heavyweight. I think most would put him in the 3-6 range, but not likely #2 (remember, some don’t have Nog #2 right now).

Perhaps one of the implied questions here is if Brock would drop some in the rankings. Right now he sits as high as #2, but he last fought in July. Sources seem to indicate he “might” return in the middle of 2010, but that’s not certain. Given the large gap of inactivity and the potential for outcomes such as Cain beating Nog (or vice versa), does Brock fall from #2, if you have him that high already?

Let me again pose a potential follow-up (to those where necessary), if Cain is still ranked lower than Brock with an additional win over Nog (giving him twice as many wins without any loses, and a very comparable SoS), what else does he need to do to pass Brock in the rankings?

Easy Rant Reply format

1) Where does Nog “rank” with a potential win over Cain?

2) Where does Cain “rank” with a potential win over Big Nog?

3) Does Lesnar’s ranking shift at all? (would help to know where you have him already)

My goal with this rant is to hopefully provide some information that might otherwise go overlooked. If you hate Brock, then I’m sure you’ll find information here that further proves he sucks. If you love Brock, then I’m sure you’ll find information below that helps explain how he’s already better than Zeus. Really though, this rant is for those that fall somewhere between hater and hugger. For those people that want to take an honest look at what he’s done thus far, and how it compares to others.

Brock Lesnar’s Fight History

Let us start by taking a look at each of Brock’s fights thus far. We’ll see how Brock ranked after each fight and where others stood early in their career.

Min Soo Kim – Win

This was Brock’s first fight and honestly it was a pretty bad choice. At the time of the fight Min was 3-5 with a rating below 1500. Why you would pair a “future #1 HW” against such a weak opponent in their first fight is beyond me.

I’m a big advocate of Risk Vs Reward. In this case Brock’s name would have provided sufficient enough reward for him to fight a higher rated fighter. I’m not talking someone 2k rated, but he should have at least been given a solid veteran with more wins than loses.

Having such a weak first opponent definitely cost Brock some points early in his career. Still, he won the fight and earned a solid 48.

Where fighters stood after 1 fight

Here’s a table showing the highest fighter ratings after a single career fight.

Strength of Schedule gets a lot of discussion as well, so here’s a list of people who had the highest Strength of Schedule after a single fight. The chart basically says who fought the highest rated opponent in their debut. It also shows mostly people who got their butt kicked. 8P

Frank Mir – Loss

The most interesting thing about this fight is that Brock lost. That put him at 1-1. However, he lost to an experienced fighter and a former champion. As a result the mma-elo.com system didn’t ding him too hard for the loss.

Despite not being dinged hard for the loss, Brock did suffer in the sense that he missed an opportunity. A win over a reasonable opponent at this point would have been worth 50+ points.

The other thing to realize is that this fight took place 2008-02-02, that’s a full 8 months after his debut on 2007-06-02. I’ll get into activity more later on, but in case you don’t make it through the rest of the rant I want to note that 8 months is a long time. On average fighters compete every 4 months, and early in a fighter’s career they tend to compete even more frequently than that.

Where fighters stood after 2 fights

Let’s again take a look at where other fighters stood two fights into their career.

Definitely more household names on the above list. Now let’s look at strength of schedule.

Heath Herring – Win

Heath Herring is a solid veteran fighter. At the time of the fight Heath had a rating of 1860 (would put him about 20th in the HW division). Heath is definitely a solid win on anyone’s resume and even more so for someone with only two previous fights.

The most controversial thing about the Heath fight is probably what followed. Before we get into that though, let’s take a look at…

Where fighters stood after 3 fights

When we look at overall rating after 3 fights we see a few interesting names. Aleks sits at #2, BJ is up to #4 Cain at #9, Lyoto at #10 and Frank Mir at #23 to name a few. The reason Brock isn’t on the list at this point is because of his loss to Mir. Again, if that fight had simply been a reasonable win he’d have cracked the top 25 and likely around top 10.

Strength of Schedule at this point has a few interesting names. Including HMC (Fedor and Cro Cop within first 3 fights), and Zulu (Fedor and Nog within first 4 fights). Neither farred so well, but that’s still a pretty crazy schedule. 8)

Randy Couture – Win

This is probably the most controversial fight in Brock’s career thus far. Not because of the outcome, but because the match got made in the first place. Following a win over Heath Herring (top 20ish) and sporting a 2 win – 1 loss record, Brock was given a title shot in the UFC against Randy Couture.

I don’t think anyone believes Heath Herring (top 20ish at the time and 4-4 in his last 8) was going to get a title shot if he’d beaten Brock. Furthermore, Brock was coming off a loss and it’s possible a win by Heath would have resulted in Brock being cut. Certainly having one fight outcome be the difference between a 1-2 record and possibly out of the UFC versus a 2-1 record and a title shot is pretty crazy.

In the war between MMA and MME, this is definitely a battle that MME won. There’s no doubt Brock is marketable and some people wanted to see the fight. The fact that a 2-1 fighter would be given a title shot in the “best” organization in the world after beating a top 20(ish) HW and a “can” (with a loss thrown in) is just too much for some people to swallow.

What needs to be made clear though is that many of the people who object to the fight taking place don’t “hate” Brock. If it’d been a 2-1 Cain or a 2-1 Aleks or whomever many of these same people would have had the exact same problem. Seeing a 2-1 fighter get such an oppurtunity almost entirely because of outside the sport factors is insulting to the sport (and the other fighters).

I know some people will say, “But Brock won, so he deserved it”. That simply isn’t true. In many cases getting the title fight is the hard part. Some fighters win numerous fights against guys ranked well above 20th and still never get their opportunity. It needs to be understood that someone can give Brock credit for winning the fight, but still acknowledge it should have never happened in the first place. Much like if Lutter had beaten Anderson, or when Serra did beat GSP.

Where fighters stood after 4 fights

As we look at overall rating after 4 fights we now see Brock on the list (at number 12). Again, if he’d won his second fight he likely would be sitting at #1. Some other interesting names we see are: Filho(#1) I’ll never understand how this guy gets no credit from some people, King Mo (#2) the number of people taking notice seems destined to grow, Cain (#3) constantly overshadowed by Brock but off to a solid start, Hunt (#8), Mir (#10), GSP (#11), Hughes (#20).

For Strength of Schedule I just have to mention Pawel. In his first 4 fights he fought: Big Nog, Josh Barnett, Aleks. I honestly have no idea who’s wife he slept with, but damn they better have had red hair!

Additionally, we also now see Brock Lesnar on the list as his overall schedule overcomes the very weak first opponent. He comes in at #9.

Frank Mir – Win

Brock’s most recent fight was a rematch against Frank Mir. This time Brock was victorious. Avenging a loss is always a good thing, and doing it against a former champion (and current interim champion) only makes it better.

That puts Brock’s career record to 4-1. Let us take a look and see where other fighters stood five fights into their career.

Where fighters stood after 5 fights

With the win over Mir, Brock passed a lot of fighters and landed at #2 on the list. Barely ahead of Cain, but very close to #1. There’s no doubt that if he’d have won his second fight (making him 5-0) he’d have easily had the highest overall rating after five fights of any previous fighter in history.

Brock Lesnar also comes in second when we look at Strength of Schedule. The debut against a very weak fighter (sub 1500) was a bit too much for Brock to overcome. Still, #2 highest Strength of Schedule after 5 fights is pretty impressive.

Brock Lesnar Vs Shane Carwin

Brock’s next fight is scheduled to be against Shane Carwin. Obviously we don’t know who will win, but let’s see how things might look…Btw, isn’t it great have a reliable and predicitable system that allows something like this? lol I know some might hate it, but the fact that I can offer up information and analysis like this is pretty awesome imo. *shrugs*

Here is the table showing overall rating after six fights…

With a win Brock will gain 66 points, putting him to 1863, that is exactly 1 point behind where Cain stood after 6 fights (and currently still stands). The interesting thing about that is again, *BROCK LOST*. Had Brock won his second fight he’d have easily been #1 after six fights. However, even with the loss the strength of Brock’s five wins in this case would be basically equal to Cain’s six, even with the loss factored in.

In terms of Strength of Schedule it’s not even close. Here’s the currently list for fighters after six fights…

Brock’s Strength of Schedule will be over 1800 following the Carwin fight. As long as the fight happens Brock is guaranteed having the highest Strength of Schedule after six fights.

If he loses

If Brock loses he’ll still have the highest Strength of Schedule after six fights. However, his overall rating would drop to 1763. Still not too bad for six fights into a career.

Activity

I mentioned Brock’s fight activity above and now I’d like to explore it in deeper detail. Thus far for his career Brock has competed less than expected. How much less could be debated, but here’s some information.

On average an MMA fighter competes every 4 months (3 fights a year). Brock had his first fight on 2007-06-02 and his fifth fight on 2009-07-11. If Brock had fought once very 4 months he’d have had his fifth fight around 2009-02-02. Instead he didn’t have his fifth fight until over five months later.

The previously mentioned fight against Carwin is currently scheduled to happen 2009-11-21, which is about four months after his last fight. However, that still means Brock will be at least one fight behind for his young career.

I say at least because history shows fighters competing far more frequently early in their careers. Here are just a few random fighters I picked out from the assorted top 25 lists above that you might recognize:

King Mo – His second fight was barely a month after his first. His third was about two months after his second. With another fight about two months after that. In fact, King Mo now has five career fights as well and he did that in about 1 year (12 months). That’s about half as long as it’s taken Brock.

Cain – Things get a little interesting because Cain’s second fight was only about two months after his first. However, his third fight didn’t happen for over a year after that. Once he started fighting again Cain had breaks of about 3, 4 and 5 months between fights (not in that order).

BJ Penn – BJ Penn is interesting because overall for his career he has actually competed less than expected. When looking at the start of his career though we see that BJ Penn’s second fight was less than two months after his first. Following that he had breaks of about: 4 months, 2 months, 4 months, 4 months.

Obviously there are the people that go nuts like Jon Jones (8 fights in less than a year to start his career), but no one is talking about Brock competing nearly that much.

Why Activity matters

Some might be wondering why activity is so important. There are actually a few reasons for it. One is that MMA is an incredibly physical sport (obviously). It really is too common for a fighter to get injured during training. The training itself also takes a toll on fighters. The truth of the matter is that having more fights win or lose takes added toll on fighters.

From a ranking point of view we also have to realize how early in his career Brock still is. He’s at 5 fights now, should be at least six, and he lost one of those fights. A couple more wins would do wonders to boost his ratings. Not just in terms of this site, but also for fans still unsure of how he will continue to perform.

What If

All this talk about activity brings up an interesting What If situation. For the sake of discussion we will assume Brock already had that “missing” fight and that it was a win over Shane (sorry Shane). That would have put Brock’s rating to 1863 and I’ll assume in this case setup a match against Big Nog. A win against Big Nog (based upon Big Nog’s current rating) would put Brock up around 1950 rating. Obviously a lot can happen, but historically that high a rating would put him in the top 10.

As I’ve touched on a few times we also have the issue of that loss. Not for the small amounts of points it cost him, but for the missed opportunity to gain points. Had that fight been a win it is very possible that the hypothetical situation listed above would have put Brock over 2k rating. That is a *VERY* good rating and would have likely put Brock top 3.

What we know

We have looked at the opponents, at the fights, and at where other fighters stood early in their careers. With all of that information, what are some of the things we can conclude?

Tough Opponents

The first thing that jumps out is that Brock has had a very high strength of schedule thus far in his career. With the exception of his first fight all of his opponents have been solid veterans with decent ratings.

Brock lost and it cost him some

Looking at the numbers it’s clear that the loss cost Brock some. The system didn’t directly ding him too much for the loss, but it was a missed opportunity. It seems apparent that some completely ignore the loss, but that is silly. You are talking about someone who’s only fought for two years and only has five total fights. To ignore 20% of them and something that happened not that long ago is foolish.

Even if you don’t want to directly ding Brock because he was young or has a tattoo on his chest or whatever, you still should acknowledge the missed opportunity. A win in that fight would have given Brock 25% *MORE* Career wins. That is how small his fight history is, and that is why the fight needs to be acknowledged.

Frank Mir is 40% of Brock Lesnar’s Career to date

Frank is a solid fighter and a former champion, but he has had a spotty fight history. The fact that Frank Mir makes up such a large percentage of Brock Lesnar’s entire fight career is one reason some people remain skeptical.

Some people are living in the future

From the numbers above it seems as though some people are living in the future. In a time when Brock has already beaten Shane and possibly already beaten Big Nog. There is no doubt that those two wins would significantly increase his rating (and his ranking). For now though he is just 4-1 and that means beating Shane and Big Nog would be a 50% increase in his career win total.

Brock hasn’t fought nearly as much as he could have

The above point gets even more interesting when we consider it wouldn’t be that outlandish for Brock to have already beaten Shane and Big Nog (or at least fought them). His current fight pace is lower than expected and significantly below what we usually see for new fighters.

What we don’t know

Even though the above information sheds some light on a few parts of Brock Lesnar’s MMA career there are still some questions that remain.

Why hasn’t Brock competed more

He has been healthy, he is considered a major draw, there are plenty of opponents. Why is it that Brock has competed so infrequently to this point in his career?

To the haters

What is it going to take for Brock to be “legitimate” in your eyes? I’m not talking #1, I’m just talking acknowledgment that he is a professional fighter and no longer a WWE personality.

To the huggers

Is it really so hard to see that many who raise questions about Brock or have issues with certain parts of his career are not blind hatters? Brock *HAS* lost. I’m not saying crucify him for it for life, but understand that losing 1 out of 5 is quite a lot.

Also consider that Brock really hasn’t fought that much. If you hug him so hard, shouldn’t you want him to fight even more? If he had a couple more wins under his belt I think you’d see more people start to give him credit. MMA isn’t as fast as some like to think and some fans being hesitant about a 4-1 fighter isn’t uncalled for (think Sok).

Speaking of belt. Understand that there are many people who like Brock that still are able to acknowledge the title shot was a bit much.

Finally, for the people that put Brock top 3 or whatever, how can Brock be ranked so much higher than many of the people he’s beaten? Min wasn’t top anything, Heath was around top 20, Randy was 10(ish) and inactive for over a year and Mir was somewhere in the top 15-20 depending on who you ask (Brock is 1-1 against him).

What if a MW beats a 3-5 guy, loses to a top 20 guy, then beats another top 20 guy, top 10(ish) guy and then avenges his loss. Does that immediately make him a threat to Anderson? Does he leapfrog fighters like Okami, Henderson, and Nate?

Wouldn’t you want to see maybe one or two more fights before you put them into that upper echelon of fighters? Even if you don’t want to wait for a couple more fights, is it really so hard to understand that some might want to see a guy have just a couple more wins before declaring exactly where the sun rises and sets?

To all the others

If you made it this far and are still reading, please leave me a message and let me know why…

I’ve heard the argument and I even know people that believe it. In MMA it is usually more a case of “If you don’t ‘nuthug’ then you ‘hate’”.

It seems almost every rant I’ve written at this point has gotten me labeled either a nuthugger or a hater. Some rants have actually gotten me labeled both. Obviously, this doesn’t only happen to me. These days it seems almost impossible to have an honest, *FACTUAL* discussion about a fighter without someone feeling the need to label every person involved as either a nuthugger or a hater. Let’s take a look at haters and huggers in a bit more detail and then test the waters a bit.

Haters First

I’d say haters first because if I didn’t put them first they’d hate on me more. The truth is I go with “haters” first because “h” comes before “n” in the alphabet. Silly me and my “bias” showing through again!

How to spot a hater

When I use the term hater (in this rant, and in most rants) I’m referring to someone who does not care about facts or logic or reason. This person has decided a certain fighter (or organization or training camp or whatever) is bad and will hate them regardless.

Hater Example

I know someone that is pretty much a textbook example of a Brock Lesnar “hater”. They ignore his wins, they ignore his background, they ignore his size and speed. This person hated Brock Lesnar before they got into MMA, hated them when they won their first fight, enjoyed hating them after they lost their second and continued hating them right through Brock’s next three wins.

This person doesn’t think Brock is top 10, doesn’t think he’s top 25, doesn’t think he’s top 1000. It is also important to note that nothing can happen that will change this person’s view of Brock. (more on this later) Brock could win his next 10 fights or win for the next 10 years. This person could hand pick Brock’s opponents and still it wouldn’t matter.

Nuthugger

I saved the best for last!!! Come on Evil Pooh nuthuggers!!! 8P

How to spot a nuthugger

When I use the term nuthugger (in this rant, and in most rants) I’m referring to someone who does not care about facts or logic or reason. This person has decided a certain fighter (or organization or training camp or whatever) is great and will love them regardless.

Nuthugger Example

Probably the best nuthugger example I know of comes from baseball. There is a person I know who is the biggest Yankee nuthugger…likely in the entire world. It’s very possible they are the biggest nuthugger anywhere of anything.

When the Yankees win it’s because they are awesome.

When they lose it’s because they didn’t think the game was worth winning.

When they lose really badly then they shouldn’t have had to play the game at all.

When the Yankees sign a player they are the best player at that position EVER EVER EVER~!!!

When the Yankees fail to sign a player the guy was a bum and didn’t deserve to wear the pinstripes.

If during the off season the Yankees lost their entire pitching staff in a freak boating accident, didn’t re-sign anyone, and had hot dog tossers in the starting rotation, it would be, “A bold and innovative decision that is sure to pay immediate dividends”.

This person believes the only thing better than the 2009 Yankees are the 2010 Yankees and the only thing close to either of them are the 2008 Yankees. Amazingly enough every year and every off season the Yankees manage to be better on the first day of the season. /boggle

Some parallels

In case you missed it, go skim back over how to spot a “hater” and “nuthugger”. Seems awfully similar, right? The reason for that is that haters and nuthuggers have more in common than they realize. They are both over the top fanatical (wonder where the term ‘fan’ comes from) and the only real difference is which side they happen to be on.

In fact, it’s quite often that one person is a “hater” in one regard and a “nuthugger” in another. What makes this even more interesting is sometimes someone is being a “hater” of Fighter A, but it gets misconstrued as “nuthugging” of Fighter B.

Nuthaters?

I’d like to think that most MMA fans fall somewhere between hating and nuthugging on most issues. If not most, then at least the majority of the people who frequent this site. What makes these fans special is that they are able to *LOGICALLY* and *FACTUALLY* discuss fighters and organizations and the like without standing steadfast on one side of the fence.

The only things these fans “nuthug” is facts and the only things they hate are “haters and nuthuggers”.

Phew, made it through the whole section without a lesbian joke.

Facthugger? examples

One of the surest ways to spot a hater/hugger is by their inability and unwillingness to focus on facts. If you mention one detail about Fighter A, they will ignore that fact entirely and just jump right back to their conclusion that Fighter A is awesome, or Fighter A sucks.

What follows are *FACTS* about various fighters. As you read the below points you should be able to look at them only in the context of the points themselves. They are not meant to “bash” any one fighter or “praise” any one fighter. Obviously some could use some of these are part of their reasoning for believing something, but let’s just focus on the facts in and of themselves. Here’s a quick test run…

Randy Couture loses a lot

Seems like a strong title, and I know some are jumping out of their chair raging about EP slamming the great Captain American. Relax, pop a few more Prozac, put down the razorblades and read on a bit more.

Here are some facts about Randy Couture in terms of wins/losses.

- Randy has a 64% win%. That means he hasn’t even win 2 out of 3 at this point in his career

- Randy has not won 3 fights in a row since February 2001 (he also lost that night)

- Almost half of Randy’s wins have come by Decision (7 out of 16, which is way above average)

Now, some would take the above as bashing Randy, but it is *NOT* intended that way. I’m not saying Randy is a can, I’m not talking about him as a trainer, a gameplanner, a human. I’m not even talking about his overall fight career. What I am talking about are three specific facts about his fight history.

At this point anyone that is looking to label me a hater, is simply wrong, and likely a nuthugger. What a “fan” of Randy’s needs to be able to say is,

“I know Randy only wins about 2/3rds of his fights, and hasn’t put together much of a win streak in a long time, but…”

See, the person is acknowledging the facts, and hopefully what follows “but…” is some additional information, perhaps specific to his current opponent or the focus of the discussion.

A quick NBA example would be,

“I know Dwight Howard can’t hit 60% of his Free Throwns, but he’s still dominant inside and hella fun to watch”.

Again, we acknowledge a “negative” fact, and build from there. This is the grammar of discussion (wow, that should be a rant lol). Notice we didn’t say.

“Fuck you Dwight wore a cape and slammed a ball and jumped 18 feet on a slam and and Fuck you!!!”.

That probably crosses the line into nuthugging…maybe…it’s close…sorta…

Tons of other examples

Here are just a few other examples that I’ve seen mentioned that often get someone labeled a hater or a hugger.

A 2-1 fighter should *NOT* get a title shot
Lots of people immediately claim this is “hating” on Brock Lesnar, but his name isn’t even on it. Unless the person has another thread going where they are claiming Lashley (ok 4-0, but go with me on this) or King Mo (yeah, I know, but go with me on this) deserve a title shot, then the person isn’t hating on Brock.

They have a position that Brock is a part of, but it is not specific to Brock. Let’s look at the NBA free throw example and think about if someone said,

“I think it’s horrible these guys do this for a living, know they’ll wind up at the line 10+ times a night and barely make half of them. There are some games that get won and lost at the free throw line”.

No mention of Dwight Howard. As long as this person is willing to further discuss the early hack-a-shaq days and other players it is *NOT* hating on Dwight.

Rashad Evans
Rashad has had an interesting history since coming off the ultimate fighter show. On the show he showed a willingness (desire? lol) to go late…late into fights. His first few offical UFC fights ended via: Split Decision…Split Decision…Majority Decision.

Now, at this point some people “hated” on Rashad’s style. Mind you, most of them did not “hate” on Rashad specifically. They hated on the decision fests and how they came about. It could have been Rashad, it could have been O’Brien or anyone else. Again, notice how we aren’t talking about a specific fighter, but rather an aspect of fighting.

Here is where it gets interesting. Following those three decisions Rashad then finish Lambert from mount, and highlight reeled Salmon with a headkick. Ok, that’s showing some potential to finish a fight. At this point, some of the “hating” should adjust or ween just a bit. If someone was still slamming Rashad for not being able or willing to finish a fight, then they were definitely headed towards the “hater” side.

Following a Draw and split Decision, Rashad KO’d Chuck and “subbed” Forrest via strikes.

At this point people need to recognize that Rashad is capable of finishing fights. If someone still clings to Rashad’s early decisions when talking about how he couldn’t possibly finish Rampage or how he’ll never regain the title, then they are “hating”. At the same time, anyone claiming Rashad finishes everyone, is unbeatable, or anything too extreme in the other direction is just “hugging”.

Bonus Round

I know this might sound crazy to some, but I’ve actually gotten complaints that rants weren’t long enough. /boggle

I’d consider the rant officially over, so go walk your dog, sleep with your other half or start spewing Evil Pooh hate. For those that want a bit more evil in their day though…here we go:

I have a friend who is a Matt Hughes fan. Period, no doubt, *FAN*. EF-EH-EN Fan. They get close to nuthugging and sometimes when backed into a corner they do, but most of the time they are very rational.

At one point a while back this friend of mine was having an overall reasonable conversation with some other people and Hughes’ name came up. There was some more reasonable conversation and then one of the other people just latched onto and clung to Hughes’ nuts like it was the chopper out of Vietnam.

Having heard this my friend (the admitted Hughes fan), pointed out a few *FACTS* about Hughes’ career. These were hardly inflammatory things and really points everyone already knew. His goal wasn’t to bash Hughes, but rather to try to bring the discussion back to a more reasonable perspective.

What happened next?

“You fucking Hughes hater. Get GSP’s nuts out of your mouth!” (it’s a simple quote, so I have no trouble recalling it quite well)

Now, my friend doesn’t “hate” GSP, but I couldn’t even call them a “fan”. They are certainly a Hughes fan (almost nuthugger themselves) and somehow this other person (after only maybe 20 minutes) of discussion had deduced that my friend not only hated Hughes, but was pro-GSP.

This is the real liability of hating/hugging. Some people take it so far that even people on the same side of the argument have to try to real them back some. When your position is so far to one side that even people that overall agree with you still disagree on some things, you might want to take a step or two back towards the middle. I’m not saying switch sides, I’m talking vacation in logicville for a little bit.

Obviously not just MMA
Ever have that friend that loves one food place just a bit too much? “Fugging best food anywhere!!!”…uhhh no, at 3am with blood in your alcohol stream and no one to go home to it’s mildly comforting. If you ever eat that slop with the sun out people will think very poorly of you.

What about the guy who thinks every girl is a 10?

Idiot – “She’s a 10, holy shit, hottest girl I’ve ever seen~!!” (in the last 4 seconds usually)

Voice of reason – “Dude she’s an 8, at best given the hump and the clear violation of rule #1″.

Idiot – “Fucking Homo!!”

Yeah, clearly the voice of reason is homosexual because they have more tiers for woman other than:

1) Fugging 10
2) A dude

Please think

I really need to start printing T-shirts, but in all honesty, please think people. No one is perfect. Fighters lose, fighters mess up, organizations make mistakes, etc. Acknowledging that a fighter is human doesn’t take away from them, it makes them human and that makes the good even more impressive.

When someone says something “negative” about a fighter you like, stop and think if it’s even directed at them. Maybe this person just doesn’t like subs or whatever. There’s no doubt some people hate, and some people hug, but there are lots of people that fall in the middle. As you read rants in the future I urge you to remember…

I’m Evil Pooh…and I’m a facthugger.

GSP Vs Matt Serra (the first time)

It was back in April of 2007 that the UFC decided to guarantee Matt Serra a shot at the title for winning a reality TV show. Here are some assorted facts from just before the fight:

Matt Serra:
8wins
4losses
1789 rating
1W – 1L in his last 2
3W – 3L in his last 6

GSP:
13wins
1loss
2102 rating
Won 6 in a row after losing to Matt Hughes
Last win was a victory over the very same Matt Hughes mentioned above
Won 7 in a row prior to that one loss

That is where the fighters basically stood coming into the fight. Now lets look a bit deeper at what they had to “gain” and “lose”, what they were “risking” and what their possible “reward” was.

Matt Serra – Risk(s)
Injury.

Honestly, that’s it. He was .500 in his last 2 fights, .500 in his last 6 fights. He’d just earned a title shot by avenging a loss to Shonie Carter and winning a very weird decision over Chris Lytle.

If Matt Serra were to lose this fight no one would say anything. He wouldn’t plummet in the rankings (he wasn’t top anything most places to begin with).

GSP – Risk(s)
His status/ranking.

GSP at this time was considered the #1 welterweight pretty much everywhere. He had won six in a row, he’d just avenged his only loss ever, and was considered by many one of the top p4p fighters in the world.

Matt Serra – Reward(s)
I don’t really have to speculate on the potential rewards for Matt Serra since I know what did happen. For winning this fight Serra immediately leapfrogged a few dozen other fights and landed squarely at #1 on several ranking lists. Additionally, Serra went back to the TUF house as a coach.

Serra also remained very high on the many ranking lists for quite awhile. His next fight after beating GSP didn’t happen until over 1 year later. Following that loss to GSP in the rematch, Serra remained on many lists until over a year later again when he finally had another fight and lost to Matt Hughes.

I say none of this to take away from Serra as a fighter or as a person, but simply to illustrate the point that Serra literally built *YEARS* off of this one single win. That shows just how much “reward” was available for him.

GSP – Reward(s)
Equaling his previous career high of 7 wins in a row?

In all seriousness, there was nothing for GSP to gain from this fight. Serra was an unranked(ish) fighter that though liked, was a tremendous underdog. After just beating the only fighter to beat him and the man considered the greatest welterweight of all time, GSP got matched up against someone no one mentioned prior to the show.

Imagine if GSP had simply beaten Serra on that night, and I’m not talking about a really brutal beating, but just a solid, undisputed unanimous decision. Looking back from today would we mention Matt Serra when talking about GSP’s best wins?

When talking to a friend of yours about why GSP is one of the p4p best would you have even gotten to Serra’s name given the list of other fighters GSP has beaten? Even now when looking back at GSP’s career do you mention his win over Serra?

Heath Herring Vs Brock Lesnar

A more recent fight that helps illustrate bad Risk vs Reward in matchmaking happened last August when Heath Herring got matched up against Brock Lesnar.

Brock Lesnar:
1win
1loss
Coming off a submission loss in his UFC debut

Heath Herring:
28 wins
13 losses
Coming off a win over Cheick Kongo following a “loss” to Big Nog that could have easily been stopped in Herring’s favor.

What makes this fight so weird (from a ranking point of view) is that Brock Lesnar actually wound up higher ranked for beating Heath Herring than Heath Herring would have been if he’d won. Please take a second and think that over.

Heath Herring was obviously the higher ranked fighter going into the fight. He’d fought some of the best in the world, he’d just beat an up and coming contender in Kongo, he’d gotten within fractions of a second of beating Big Nog (#2 in the world at the time), etc.

Meanwhile, Brock Lesnar was 1 and 1 at the time. His first fight ever was a win over a guy that was 3-5 (3 wins, FIVE losses). After that he fought Frank Mir and lost that fight in the first round.

Knowing all of that, I pray it’s safe to say that Heath Herring was ranked higher at the time of the fight. Now lets look at the fight from both sides. First the side we know…

Brock Wins
Brock Lesnar beat Heath Herring via decision and in doing so earned a title shot. That’s right a fighter beat a 3-5 fighter, got submitted in the first round of his next fight, and by winning a decision in their third ever fight was given a title shot in the “best organization in the world”.

Yet again I am forced to point out that I take nothing away from Brock, but rather it is important to realize the sheer amount of “reward” this fight garnered. A decision win over Heath Herring was enough to get a 2-1 fighter a title shot in the biggest organization in the world. That is a *LOT* of reward.

Heath Wins
Lets now take a look at it from Heath Herring’s side of things. If Heath Herring wins does he get a title shot? If so then why wasn’t this just billed as a #1 contender fight? Also, if Heath Herring wins that means Brock is now 1-2. His only win coming against a 3-5 fighter and he’s lost two in a row in the UFC. Would Heath have even gotten much credit for beating Brock at that point?

Going back to the question I posed about mentioning Matt Serra when explaining GSP’s career, would a 1 win, 2 loss Brock Lesnar really make the list at that point for Heath? Remember Heath has wins over Evan Tanner (his first loss ever after winning 6 in a row to start his career), and Igor Volvchanchyn (seriously look up his fights if you want to be entertained…and frightened a little). Heath also had fought fighters such as: Fedor, Cro cop, Big Nog(a few times lol), Vitor Belfort, and many others.

Put yourself on August 10th, 2008 after Heath Herring beat a now 1 and 2 Brock Lesnar and tell me how you’d use that win in a discussion to promote Heath Herring without mentioning Brock was “large”.

Can’t have it both ways

What I find interesting is that in a lot of cases the bad matchmaking relies on both fight outcomes to justify the fight. For instance, people try to give GSP credit for beating Matt Serra in the rematch, but the only reason for that is that Serra actually won the first fight. Had GSP simply won the first time, no one would even mention it.

In a similar case some like to claim, “beating Brock would have helped Heath’s career” because they are piggybacking on the fact that Brock actually won and got a title shot. If Herring simply won and Brock fell to 1 and 2, no one would have been accepting that. To make matters even worse, Brock is still very early in his MMA career. His loss against Frank Mir is already discounted by some and if he were to win the rematch many will “forget” it entirely.

It seems very likely that even if Heath had won and Brock still went on to be great in the next couple of years people wouldn’t have given Heath very much credit because Brock was still so “new”.

Again I pose a question, what is the scenario where Heath Herring really would have gained from beating Brock Lesnar? Obviously a win at that time wasn’t going to do him much good, and Brock had far more to gain from a win.

Know a scenario where a win over Brock would have really gained Heath something? A year or two down the road after Brock had actually fought a few more people. If Brock came into the fight at even 5-2 as a slightly more established fighter then the risk vs reward would have been more even between the two fighters.

Year of the Upset

It’s fairly common to hear people talk about big upsets and what not in MMA, but understand they are bred out of poor matchmaking. When you see a fight announced try to step back for a second and look at it from all angles. Ask yourself:

“What if Fighter A wins? What do they gain? Where do they stand?”
“What if Fighter B wins? What do they gain? Where do they stand?”

In many cases these “bad fights” are simply inevitable because the matchup makes a “good” outcome almost impossible.

Disclaimer

I know some people will read this and think I’m hating on Fighter A or Fighter B specifically and that simply isn’t the case. My intention is to piggyback onto this rant tomorrow and address another key point in discussions like this. Till then I’m off to do other evil things…