Fedor shouldn’t win!

Lots of people keep talking about Fedor’s legacy and how these recent losses detract from it, but that makes no sense to me. The truth is that Fedor losing shouldn’t be such a surprise and the fact that it is only serves as proof of how completely insane his achievements are. Let’s think about this…

Size

Far too many MMA fans still equate weight *CLASS* with weight. Take a look at Fedor Vs Hendo. There are actually some people that claim Fedor had a huge “size” advantage because he is a heavyweight and was taking on a “Middleweight”. These are the same people that gave Fedor no credit for beating Lindland. Yet somehow Fedor Vs Silva or Sylvia or basically everyone else he’s fought is totally acceptable because they were all “heavyweights”. Some even questioned Fedor’s p4p status because he “just” fought at heavyweight. /boggle

The size difference for Fedor Vs Sylvia, Vs Silva, Vs even Arlovski or Werdum is more than most fighters would ever even attempt to overcome. We live in a time of MMA where there is this incredible race for the bottom. It seems I can’t go a week without having to update fighter weight information as yesterday’s light heavyweight is today’s middleweight…and tomorrow’s welterweight.

I honestly think some people would benefit from actually meeting more of these fighters in person. If you’ve stood next to Fedor and stood next to someone like Forrest Griffin I think you’d be hard pressed to explain that Forrest is the “light” version.

Fedor Vs Franklin

Yes it could be an interesting fight, but that’s not my point. This bullet point is about the fact that Fedor takes damage and more importantly *SHOWS* damage. Many enjoyed calling Fedor a cyborg and I understand that he doesn’t show “pain”. That doesn’t mean that he doesn’t show damage though! Fedor “lost” his first fight to a cut. He has been opened up by jabs in certain fights. I believe his brother left his face wounded coming out of at least one training camp.

The truth is some fighters *SHOW* damage and some don’t seem to show it nearly as much. Fighters like Nog, like Penn and several others come to mind. Those guys seldom show damage. They get punched a ton, but don’t cut nearly as badly or swell in quite the same way. Fedor’s fight Vs Silva wasn’t stopped because he tapped or was unwilling to continue. It was stopped because it looked like someone tossed Silva a metal chair while the ref wasn’t looking.

In a sport where the refs, doctors and judges can all basically award you a loss based in part on how you look showing damage is a real problem.

Mini-rant

Yes, let’s be clear right now *LOOK*. This isn’t Fedor specific, but I’m going to ranty up this rant a little bit. I’m sick of one guy eating one or two shots and having a fat lip and people thinking he had no business winning a unanimous decision while his opponent is being held up because of all the leg kicks and internal bleeding he has suffered. Far too often in MMA it’s more important to land something that “looks” damaging than it is to actually…ya know, damage your opponent!

Sorry, back to finishing off this point…As I was saying, with numerous ways that an MMA fight can go against you based upon how you show damage it is a real issue that Fedor constantly reminds me of those old He-man action figures. The ones where you’d tap their armor and it would show damage, then tap it again and it’d show more damage. I swear I’ve seen Fedor take damage from his corner men between rounds. I think that’s why he tries so hard to end fights in the first round. That leads us too…

Fedor does *NOT* fight to win

This is by far the most important point and the one that seems to be totally ignored by a large portion of the MMA community. Fedor fights to finish fights…sure, Fedor fights to go backstage and get his soft boiled egg that he put in before walking to the ring…that’s my guess, but he does not fight to *win* the fight.

I know this is confusing for some and yet again I now wish I’d posted another older rant, but the point is that right now in MMA you can win a fight easily via decision without actually ever doing anything that would have won you the fight without the judges. You can score two take downs in a round, break your hand on the mat while whiffing on your opponents head and as long as your opponent was “stupid” enough to work the jab, land leg kicks, go for submissions and not lay on top of you for several minutes per round to offset your “onslaught” then the judges will hand you a victory.

It would be one thing if Fedor fought like he didn’t want the fight to go to the judges, but more than that he fights like he doesn’t want the fight to go to the next second on the official clock.

Let’s look at Fedor Vs Werdum…now…I’m sorry, but look at Werdum Vs Overeem. Fedor could have easily asked the ref to stand Werdum up. He could have easily waited later in the round to dive in to have some time cushion, he could have easily counted on the judges to hand him a win. Instead he dove in, just like he did on Hendo and just like he did on Big Nog. In order to get the taste of Werdum Vs Overeem out of your eyes I think you should now go watch Fedor Vs Nog 1. Listen the commentary. Look at how that fight goes. Lots of people wouldn’t get into the ring with Nog, let alone go to the ground with him.

In almost every Fedor fight I’ve seen there are clear points where he could choose to play it safer, not risk losing the fight and still likely “win” the fight. That isn’t his game though and it never has been. People constantly criticize a fighter like GSP for not trying to win and instead fighting to not lose. Yet these same people seem unwilling to acknowledge just how impractically aggressive Fedor is. I find it confusing how someone can badmouth Fedor for losing to Werdum how he did and also bad mouth fighters like Anderson Silva and Overeem for how they act in similar situations.

It doesn’t make sense to want a QB to air it out 70 times a game and then freak out when they eventually get intercepted. It also doesn’t make sense to call for the type of action Fedor constantly delivers and then hold it against them when they wind up losing.

Hater or Hugger?

As I mentioned at the top it is hard to acknowledge Fedor’s shortcomings without simultaneously making his legacy sound all the more impressive. Fedor was constantly the favorite to win every fight, often in the first round, sometimes via eye laser and despite often giving up huge size advantages. All while showing tons of damage and having completely unrealistic game plans.

Fedor constantly won because he was Fedor and people, sadly, came to expect those wins and missed how incredible (and often improbable) those wins really were. The fact that in recent times we’ve seen his issues finally cost him a few matches shouldn’t tarnish his legacy. Rather, it should help people realize just how much he accomplished and how lucky we were to watch it happen.

Ranking System

Last week some people e-mailed me regarding the ranking system used on the site and I felt the need to clarify a few things.

Old Fights Vs Recent Fights

One common misunderstanding about the ranking system on this site is that old fights matter as much as recent fights. That simply isn’t true.

A while back I ranted about a lot of different Elo System Examples. I don’t want to go back over the whole rant, but there are a lot of good examples there that show recent fights definitely carry the most weight.

I won’t deny that older fights matter a lot more on this site than many flavor-of-the-month-what-have-you-done-for-me-lately-matt-serra-is-the-number-1-welterweight-in-the-world sites. That isn’t a bad thing though and that leads me to…

System Results

Many don’t fully understand how the system on this site works or what they are seeing really means. Occasionally I see someone bash the system because of a result, but they don’t fully understand what the result means.

Please understand that this site treats MMA as the sport that it is. The system is more fluid and less volatile than many others. It is also incredibly accurate.

Right now the raw prediction percentage remains well above 60% and the system integrity is over 95%. That means the system does very well as designed and has an incredible edge versus a coin toss.

Whatever, you think Fighter A is #Y!!

First, my personal opinions have nothing to do with the rankings. Secondly, the system is one piece, ONE PIECE!, ONE PIECE!!! of the total picture.

The system has no control over matchmaking, suspensions, reffing, or judging!

I agree that there are some people that are “too high” right now and some that are “too low”, but if you look at why it’s very easy to understand. Almost every issue someone has ever had with where a fighter is currently ranked can be fixed with just a couple simple matches.

This site ranks tens-of-thousands of fighters and having an issue with a handful of fighters with complex situations doesn’t invalidate all of the other results.

Early Stoppages

This topic got a lot of attention recently because of Kongo Vs Barry. It has come up before and I’m certain it will come up again.

The biggest problem I have with some of the discussions I’ve seen is this belief that because Kongo *could* still win (as evidenced by him, ya know…winning), the fight shouldn’t have been stopped. That is a very flawed way of looking at things. Plenty of fighters could have won…if they hadn’t already lost!

I’m not saying that particular fight should have been stopped or not. If you truly believe Kongo was still in it, then that is fine. The problem I have is with people that say the fight shouldn’t have been stopped because Kongo wound up winning.

If the criteria for a stoppage is “inability to ever possibly win” then lots of fights wouldn’t get stopped and some would get stopped before the opening bell!

I’ve seen MMA fighters get surprise subbed that could have easily won if the fight was restarted.

I saw a fight once where a guy was literally choked unconscious, the fight wasn’t stopped and he came back to win. Is someone going to claim that fights shouldn’t be stopped when a fighter goes to sleep because they *could* wake up and still win?

I saw a fight where a fighter was getting pummeled, tapped, and the ref still didn’t stop the fight. The fighter then rebounded and went on to win. Should a fighter tapping no long be grounds for stopping a fight because they *could* still win?

What if Tim Sylvia had gone all Rampage on Mir? Are some going to claim that a fight shouldn’t be stopped due to a broken limb because the fighter *could* still win?

Slippery Slope

Fighter safety is always an issue and having refs hesitate because they think an injured fighter *could* comeback is very dangerous.

Ref stoppages are the safety net that let these high power athletes go all out and still avoid severe injuries. As a fan of MMA I don’t want to see fights stopped too early, but even more than that I don’t want to see a fight get stopped too late.

Think about Meathead walking away because he knew his opponent was done even if the ref hadn’t realized it yet. Think about Franklin yelling at the ref because he didn’t want to hit MacDonald anymore.

If we get slower ref stoppages and more comeback losses those situations won’t happen. MMA fighters will continue to push for fear of the injured fighter coming back and all it takes is one fight ending where a fighter *can’t* comeback to set this sport back a lot of years.

Cruz Vs Faber

Much like Barry Vs Kongo I’m just using Cruz Vs Faber to address a broader topic.

I hear a lot of people claim that anyone who doesn’t enjoy watching the lighter weight classes is a KO hungry savage that only enjoys watching heavyweights slug it out.

That is no doubt true for some, but the issues run a bit deeper than that for others.

Boot to the head

I once watched a bantamweight fight where one of the fighters landed 9 head kicks in the first few minutes of the second round.

I didn’t go into the fight hoping for a KO, I don’t mind that the fight went to decision, but I do mind that 9 head kicks had practically no effect on the other fighter. In fact, one of the head kicks traded with a jab and I think the jab did more overall damage.

When I see someone get kicked in the head, I expect it to matter. I don’t expect that between rounds I’ll actually hear myself say, “yeah, he landed a dozen head kicks, but the other guy had his jab working that round!”.

Significance and Effectiveness

What I think it really comes down to isn’t so much wanting the KO, but rather wanting the technique to matter. If you get into a situation where the technique isn’t effective or doesn’t have a significant impact on the outcome, then it is less important and less exciting.

When Gonzaga head kicked CroCop it was exciting, it was significant, it was highly effective. In the bantamweight example above the head kicks were really none of those things.

Technique Vs Power

I think the reason some people have trouble enjoying certain matches is due to the balance of technique and power. Once you consider different people have a different view of what is an enjoyable balance, then you start to see why some people enjoy certain matches that others don’t.

This issue certainly isn’t exclusive to just the lighter weight classes and actually goes to the very core of competition. Which actually goes to the core of what makes a good fight. Which actually is a great topic for a future rant!

- House: Three Stories
- Criminal Minds: 3rd life

If you haven’t seen both of those at least three times each, then you have better things to be doing than reading this rant!

For those that are still here, have you ever noticed that a lot of people are really just a moderately shaken and jumbled result of their life experiences?

I don’t claim to be an exception, so I figured I’d take a little time to tell you a story that helped cause me. The story does have to do with companies (though more than three), and towards the end I’ll actually try to bring some MMA into this.

As a semi-classic disclaimer, please note that the names have been changed to protect the stupid.

Picture it…

Some time ago in some place, there was some guy that was tasked with some job. Not just any job, but a pretty nice job for a very well known company.

This company (heretoforeafter refered to as “company”) was considering a major new initiative with the seldom seen goal of making money. Due to the nature of this initiative they were carefully considering how to open this up to other companies (not to be confused with “company” from above).

Part of their solution involved a shockingly handsome, redhead-chasing, functioning sociopath occasionally referred to as the “number whisperer”.

This person was tasked with analyzing lots of companies on a wide range of criteria and gauging how well they would fit into the initiative.

Why am I here again?

As is often a good idea when starting a task it’s important to fully understand the scope/objectives/assortedotherbuzzwordstodropduringperformancereviews.

Once things were clarified it was clear that the original explanations and metric requirements didn’t satisfy the underlying goal. I say, I say ya’re treetin the symptoms and not, I say not the disease boy!

Finally getting somewhere

Since it’s cumbersome to express the exact number of meetings that ensued without using scientific notation I’ll simply say “a lot”. Following “a lot” of meetings things got interesting…I know you were waiting for the point when this would get interesting and now it’s here!

With a clearer understand of the goals/objectives/blahblahblah numbers started to be crunched and bunched and munched!

Boy that was interesting!

Back to the rant…

Enter the Jitterbug

Not quite as intimidating as a dragon (also not nearly as smart depending on your mythos). Make no mistake about it though, this “bug” is a behemoth. One of those people that can make more in a year than some will in a lifetime.

Looking back it should have been obvious that Jitterbug would be a problem. From the beginning they *KNEW* which companies should be picked. At first this wasn’t so bad because they had reasons.

Maybe they have a point

During early confrontations (I mean “meetings”) Jitterbug was adamant that certain companies were obvious choices and there was no need to analyze them. This quickly devolved to the point of not needing to analyze any companies because Jitterbug already had…”the final list”. ooooooo—-aaaaaaa

A quick glimpse of the list and it was apparent that we were worlds apart. I was on earth…and they clearly were on some distance planet that didn’t have math, logic, or deodorant.

We can work it out

In an attempt to find some common ground I began to ask several sincere questions in the hopes of clarifying the criteria that resulted in such a huge difference between our lists.

Knife to a gunfight

Conflict one – Jitterbug wasn’t ranking these companies with a keen focus on this initiative, but was simply noting which companies he considered important.

2 + 2 = 5

During one of Jitterbug’s responses they accidentally mixed in some numbers with their words and that resulted in more confusion on my part. Some of the numbers they mentioned simply didn’t match.

One of the problems was that Jitterbug had incorrect information. A key report Jitterbug was using had a major error.

A second issue (among many not mentioned) was that Jitterbug didn’t understand the formulas they were round-pegging into the rectangular boxes of excel.

It’s what you can prove!

With all of the reasons now clear and the flaws obvious I expected a better discussion to ensue.

Sadly…it did not.

Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting him to immediately go “YOU’RE SO RIGHT HERE’S EXTRA MONEY!!!”. It seemed reasonable though to expect Jitterbug to take some time and re-evaluate things with the updated information they now had at their disposal.

Nope, not needed! Jitterbug acknowledged the flaw in the raw data, actually explained back to me the issueS! (PLURAL!!!) with his formulas and then said…

“none of that really matters though, these are still the right companies”.

Look, I get the whole:

If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck and is wearing a sign saying “I’m a duck” that many will lean toward “duck”.

The issue here is:

It didn’t walk like a duck, it didn’t talk like a duck and it was wearing a sign saying “I’m not a fucking duck!”.

Em Em What?

So what does any of this have to do with MMA? Nothing specifically, but it has a lot to do with people. There are a lot of people in this world, and sadly, there are a lot of Jitterbugs in this world. Thus it’s no surprise there are a lot of MMA fans that are Jitterbugs.

Often times when talking to people about MMA (and many, many other things) I’ll see them pull a Jitterbug. The most common is probably the worst. That’s where someone “knows” something, but they can’t explain why. If we are talking about an inability to express the obvious superiority of redheads in 5000 words or less, I get it. When we are talking about more clear cut and calculable things then I’m at a total lose.

Don’t be mistaken, I’ve seen a lot of people be right for all the wrong reasons. As a general rule though if every single one of your “reasons” (or even just one beeg one!) is called into question or outright refuted you might want to at least pause for effect before continuing the discussion.

It wasn’t a fucking duck!

Just for those that like closure, nope it wasn’t a duck. Jitterbug’s list was pretty terrible and thankfully largely ignored in the end.

Here are the two important things to take away from all of this…

1) Dont be a Jitterbug

2) Buy my new Evil Pooh T-shirt with horned-bear wearing an “I’m not a fucking duck!” sign.

1) *ZUFFA* purchased Strikeforce

The first thing that needs to be clarified is that the UFC’s parent company purchased Strikeforce. The “UFC” did *NOT* purchase “Strikeforce”.

Tons of the chatter I see continues to ignore this key detail. There are a lot of parent companies out there that own multiple companies that operate within the same industry.

Look at Wendy’s and Arby’s. Look at Yum! foods that has Pizza hut and Taco Bell and KFC. Activision/Blizzard, etc.

Certainly it’s possible we’ll see a WEC style merger at some point. However, that is not what we currently have going on.

Remember wayyyy back when “UFC” bought “Pride”? Remember how Dana kept talking about how he tried to get deals going, and then explained that at least he got the pride library and that was still valuable to him.

MMA is a global sport with incredible growth potential and Zuffa clearly has a lot of resources. It will be interesting to see what they think provides the most value.

2) What is the “UFC”?

This might sound silly, but a lot of people don’t realize that the UFC is an MMA organization and is primarily a brand.

What the UFC isn’t

Fighters – The fighters can go anywhere and fight. Whether they come from Strikeforce, go to Strikeforce, head to Bellator or whatever else.

Rules – The rules are basically state mandated with minimal variations.

Refs/Judges – State certified in most cases.

Arena – The “octagon” is hardly unique at this point and actually has a couple current variations as I recall.

What the UFC is!

So what does that leave us?

Well, the UFC is a production. The color scheme, the intros, the commentators, that’s all “UFC” through and through.

You know what else the UFC is? It’s a business. The fighters it signs, the events it schedules, the business plan it follows. Which leads us too…

3) The “UFC” Model

Probably the biggest fear I have regarding Zuffa purchasing Strikeforce is if we’ll see shifts in Strikeforce’s business model.

Exclusive Contracts

Probably one of the biggest things you see with UFC fighters is they are much more restricted in what they can do. With Strikeforce you saw fighters from other organizations, you saw fighters compete in K-1 and other sports.

There is a very fundamental difference between what a Strikeforce fighter could previously do and what many UFC fighters have been allowed to do.

Popular over Good

Historically you can see lots of cases where the UFC treats different fighters differently. Fighters that are popular move up the ranks faster, fighters that mess up and aren’t as beloved get scolded harder, etc.

Strikeforce doesn’t have a major history here, but little clues like Josh Barnett being in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix while Dana White for the UFC says no one cares about him.

If it don’t make dollars, it don’t make sense!

Finally, the UFC shows a bias toward making money. Obviously, they are a business and need to make money to stay in the game. However, as I’ve discussed several times, there comes a point where you have to act like a legitimate organization and let the sport do more of the driving.

The UFC has a very financially successful business model in regards to hyping fighters, their churn rate, their costs per event, etc.

Make no mistake about it, if I were investing money in an MMA company I’d be making it rain on Dana White.

4) SUPERFIGHTS!!111!!1oneone1!!1

Probably the most unrealistic hype I see surrounding the purchase of Strikeforce by Zuffa are these amazing superfights we are now going to get!

Really? Which fighters didn’t the UFC have the ability to negotiate and sign previously?

Notice how much excitement the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix has garnered. Yet Werdum signed a better deal with Strikeforce, Fedor negotiations broke down, Arlovski moved on, Barnett “isn’t cared about”, etc.

This again comes back to what the “UFC” really is, what their business model is and how Zuffa’s acquisition of Strikeforce will impact Strikeforce’s business model.

I find it very troubling that “UFC Fans” have basically been brain washed into believe that super fighters only happen if the UFC controls everything.

I bet dollars to donuts that UFC and Strikeforce could have worked out a deal to have two UFC heavyweights in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix. Remember Chuck going over to fight in Pride?

With the limited time Strikeforce had some of the spotlight we saw Aoki come over from Japan, we saw Diaz head over and fight Mach, we have Kawajiri setup against El Nino.

There’s no reason that we couldn’t see Overeem Vs JDS. See Brock Vs Fedor, see Machida Vs Mousassi, etc.

You don’t need the same parent company for that, you just need smart people running things to put some value on the fans and the sport and just a tidge less on the bottom line.

More questions than answers

At this point I think we really are left with more questions than answers. We don’t know how long before a merger, if a merger even happens. Maybe Strikeforce will be maintained for it’s “challengers’ series” and on cable to help drive sales and pay-per-views for larger events.

Maybe we will get some super fights, but didn’t we get some of those when Pride was aquired? To that end, couldn’t we have had them anyway?

What about the fighters? Strikeforce gave fighters like Mousassi (who likes to compete non-exclusively), Daley (sucker punch!), and Barnett (nobody cares) a place to compete at a high level and for fans of the sport to see them compete. If a merger happens, if negotiating strategies or business strategies change, what will happen in the future?

I think a lot of people need to step back at this point and really think about what this might mean. Forget the hype and the branding and all of the propaganda and really think.

What does this make possible that wasn’t possible before?

What did we possibly lose that might have previously been possible?

Is this good for the fans?

Is this good for the fighters?

Is this good for the sport!?

Like I said, more questions than answers…

With all of the heavy hitters involved in the tourney it’s very likely we’ll see a lot of fights not make it to the judges (yay!). It’s nice to avoid the risk of bad judging whenever possible, but the high finish rates for these fighters also makes the fight outcome a lot more volatile. For that reason it’s important to keep in mind that just because a fighter landed their finisher first doesn’t mean the other fighter is a can or overrated.

Let’s take a look at just how devastating all of the fighters in the tourney are and why even a decision loss against any of these guys might be considered an achievement.

Background

A couple of years ago I did a breakdown of decisions across weight classes. That data showed that lower weight classes go to decision more frequently and heavyweights go to decision the least.

This higher finish percentage is what leads to such high volatility in the heavyweight division and especially in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix.

Let’s take a look at the fighters remaining in the tourney and see a career breakdown of their wins by (t)KO, Submission, Decision.

Fabricio Werdum

Josh Barnett

Antonio Silva

Brett Rogers

Sergei Kharitonov

Alistair Overeem

Over 9000!!!

As you can see even for heavyweights there is a ton of damage in the system. We still might see a few decisions, but anyone booing 45 seconds into a match because the fighters are still feeling each other out should be kicked in the head. With the fighters involved odds are pretty high that once the fight “starts” its about to end!

Thankfully the situation seems poised to improve in the coming months. Strikeforce has announced a grand prix containing several of the top ranked heavyweights in the world. Let’s take a look at where the fighters involved currently stand and how things might look following the tourney.

The fallen

I originally ranted this rant prior to the first two fights taking place. Since we now know that both Fedor and Arlovski lost I’m going to save some space by removing their “what-if” sections.

Both of these guys are fantastic fighters that have earned a lot more respect than they are currently getting, so if anyone wants separate rants for them I will gladly accommodate. For those only slightly interested: Fedor would be #1 if he won (shocking) and Arlovski would very (VERY) closely mimic Sergei’s rankings.

Brett Rogers

With an 1870 rating Brett is the lowest rated fighter in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix. His rating currently puts him just outside the top 20 in the heavyweight division.

I would have really liked to see him get one more decent win prior to the tourney starting. However, he was able to win a unanimous decision in October so that he didn’t have to enter the tourney on a two fight losing streak.

Best Case

The best case scenario for Brett (ratings wise) is to beat Barnett, then beat Werdum, then beat Silva in the finals. This would put Brett up to 2085 and likely put him top 3 in the heavyweight division. Remember, in this scenario he beat Barnett and Silva who would both fall.

Worst Case

Pretty straight forward, but a loss in the first round to Barnett would drop Brett to 1849 and likely leave him around #25 in the heavyweight division.

Sergei Kharitonov

I really don’t get people calling Sergei a dark horse in this tourney. Let’s just go over some random facts…

18 wins, 4 losses.

Who were those 4 losses to? Oh just no-bodies like Jeff Monson, Aleks (Fedor’s brother), Overeem and Nog.

Now let’s talk about those 18 wins. 1 decision (over Werdum). 9 (t)KOs and 8 submissions including: a TKO of Semmy, a KO of Murilo Rua, a TKO of Pedro, and a TKO of Overeem.

It’s not that I object to Sergei being called a dark horse because he can’t win, it’s that I object to it because I can’t fathom true MMA fans being all that surprised if he did!

Best Case

Having already beat Arlovski Sergei should now aim for victories over Silva and then a win over Barnett in the finals. This would put Sergei up to 2094 and easily place him top 3 in the world at heavyweight.

Worst Case

A loss in the second round to Silva would put Sergei down to 1925 and likely see him lingering just outside the top 10 at heavyweight.

Alistair Overeem

Alistair enters the tourney with a rating of 2026 that puts him in the top 10 of the heavyweight division currently.

Alistair is a monster, period. 35 wins, 1 decision. He used to fight at light heavyweight and back then the knock on him was that he had very poor cardio.

Since moving up to heavyweight I haven’t heard many question his cardio, but then again, I haven’t seen many last that long against him either.

I would hope most have watched some of his K-1 matches at this point. If you have then you realize that he is never more than a few seconds away from ending the fight.

Best Case

Beating Werdum, Barnett and then Silva would put Overeem up to 2185 and likely make him the #1 ranked heavyweight. I’m going to hope most would be OK with such a ranking.

Worst Case

A first round loss to Werdum would put Overeem down to 1981 and see him hanging just inside the top 10 most likely.

Fabricio Werdum

Werdum enters the tourney rated 2058 which puts him top 5 in the heavyweight division currently.

A perennial candidate for MMA’s Rodney Dangerfield award Werdum gets no respect. The guy holds wins over 3 of the 7 other heavyweights in the tourney. He also lost a split decision to a fourth and lost an ugly, ugly (god there were no winners in this fight) decision to a 5th member of the tourney.

Additionally, Werdum has two wins over Gonzaga (who remains more revered by many /boggle) and Vera.

The upside to Werdum getting no respect is that I make extra bank when he beats someone like Gonzaga or Fedor and “Noooooo onnnneeeee” saw it coming.

Best Case

The path to highest rating for Werdum is mostly a trip down memory lane. First he has to beat Overeem again (he won via Kimura the first time), then he has to beat Barnett, and in the finals he has to defeat Silva again (decision win the first time).

Doing so would elevate Werdum to a 2201 rating, make him first in the heavyweight divisison and make him only the fifth fighter to achieve a rating above 2200.

Worst Case

A loss in the first round to Overeem would move Werdum down to 2003 rating, which should keep him top 10.

Josh Barnett

Probably the biggest, reasonable, knock on Barnett is his volatility. I mean that in the sense of activity and fights. I think most can admit he’s a talented fighter that’s been around for awhile and is capable of ending a fight in a number of ways.

The question becomes…when is he going to have that fight and who’s he going to be fighting? In 2005 he fought once, then in 2006 he fought seven times. 2007? Zero.

2008 was probably Josh’s best recent year with 3 decent wins.

2009 had a single win over Yvel.

Since then Barnett has a couple wins over weaker competition and Fedorgate on his resume.

Regardless of how the tourney plays out it would be really nice to see Barnett with several legitimate fights at HW in the next year or two.

Best Case

Beating Rogers, then Werdum, then Silva would see Barnett throat slit his way into the 2200 club (2209) and #1 rank in the heavyweight division.

Worst Case

A first round loss would drop Barnett all the way down to 2016 and likely leave him fighting for top 10.

Antonio Silva

This guy is a bad matchup for pretty much everyone. I just can’t imagine many of the heavyweights in this tourney thinking about how well they match up stylistically against this guy.

Tons of reach, lots of size, and oh yeah, just a tidge of skill to go with it!

Silva has shown a willingness to exchange a bit recently and I’m curious if he’ll leave himself open and get caught. On the other hand, if he has his cardio right and shows up looking to grind, it’ll be a tough matchup for anyone.

Best Case

A second round win over Sergei and a finals Victory over Josh (after Josh beats Werdum) puts Silva up to 2183 and lands him in first place in the heavyweight division.

Worst Case

A loss in the second round to Sergei would reduce Silva to 2028 and likely leave him in the 6-9 range for heavyweights.

Fear and Hope

My biggest fear regarding the grand prix is a fighter getting caught and having “fans” claim how bad they are or what a can they are. This is the heavyweight division we are talking about and everyone in the grand prix can end a fight quickly.

My hope is that this tourney is only the beginning and that we get more solid matchmaking going forward. Too often there is focus on the #1 contender fight, but people miss how crucial it is to be building up those #3 and #4 fighters to assure strong future matchups. This format and this collection of fighters is great for the heavyweight division and great for MMA overall.

I guess only real question is…Who ya got?

Test 1, 2…

Mic check!

I’m in what I pray are the final stages of the data update from hell. I honestly don’t think it took me this long to get the site online in the first place. /boggle

Ranking Lists

Part of the new site design will see the addition and removal of several of the ranking lists. Please look over the lists and make your voice heard about what you like and what you don’t like.

As was suggested, I also modified the language on several of the lists. If there is any confusion about what a list is designed to show or who is included, please let me know.

Rants

Rants are something I’ve struggled with a lot. I try to keep my opinion out of things to help enforce the incredibly unbiased nature of the site. At times I’ve feared that some people would claim, “See EP doesn’t like Fighter A and that’s why they are low”.

Obviously that isn’t the case and the truth is anyone I would want on this site would know better.

I also find that ranting helps me purge the pain of reading other MMA forums. It literally (yes literally!) hurts me what passes as an “MMA Fan” these days.

So, with the understanding that my rants are simply the opinion of one warped, angry mammal and that my purpose is more to inform than to persuade, I will be posting rants more frequently. If there are events, fighters, mechanics or rules you’d like an evil perspective on, please ask away. I’ve already got a pretty interesting list to get me through the next couple weeks.

Incorrect fighter information

I am incredibly thankful for those that help me clean up incorrect information on the site. There are several fighters I’ve updated, but I don’t always make a note of it on the forums.

What I’m going to be doing going forward is removing the forum threads for those fighters I think are corrected. If you still feel they are incorrect then, please make a new topic about it.

When posting about incorrect information please provide as much information as you can. A link to the fighter on this site helps, a link to the fighter on another site helps. If it is a case of duplicate fighters, then please let me know which should stay and which should go.

Obviously personal tastes can skew things, but here’s what I saw…

Round 1

Round 1 was all Carwin…by a LOT. Brock tried a takedown and got clipped on the way in and landed in neutral position. Carwin stood up right after and soon proceeded to dominate the standup.

Brock got put down and spent a couple minutes on his back getting hammered away on. I won’t say the fight should have been stopped, but we’ve all seen fights stopped for *MUCH* less. If this fight were stopped two minutes in, think what people would be saying.

At the end of the round with about one minute left Brock gets back to his feet, has Carwin against the cage and even with Carwin gassed still doesn’t get the takedown. In fact, Carwin appears to be locking up a Kimura as the round ends.

Even the announcers call this a 10-8 round for Carwin.

Round 2

Round 2 is all Brock. Sadly though, not because of what he does, but because of what Carwin can’t do. Carwin is gassed and takes about 2 seconds to retract his first punch of the round. Brock does a fairly weak takedown attempt (by his standards) and get’s Carwin down.

From there Brock could have ended the fight via tickling if he wanted. Carwin was completely gassed.

Brock’s win or Carwin’s loss

Often times in sport people will ponder whether one team won the fight or the other team lost. I think in the case of this fight it’s obvious that Carwin lost it.

I’m not hating on Brock here, but he didn’t come right out and dominate with his wrestling. He didn’t beat Carwin at the standup game. He didn’t sub Carwin off his back. Those are all things Brock could have done to “win” the fight.

Carwin on the other hand pushed too hard too early. In the pre-fight rant I mentioned the uncertainties surrounding Carwin and this came true. He didn’t have the gas tank for it, he didn’t stay composed and adjust to the fight as it happened, etc.

The good for Brock

Brock showed heart. As silly as it sounds there were a lot of people that expected Brock to drop to his knees and tapout as soon as he took one solid shot.

Obviously, that’s a very silly thing to think. Brock competed at wrestling and football. Somehow people let his “fake wrestling” overshadow everything else. Wrestling is an incredibly difficult sport both physically and mentally. You don’t get as good as Brock at anything without having heart.

The bad of the good

Here’s where people again flip flop on me and think I’m back to being a hater…

Brock is an MMA fighter, he holds the heavyweight title and he’s a grown ass man!!! Saying “he didn’t tap” borders on an insult in my opinion. Look at all the fighters that fight injured, that struggle through fights, that refuse to give up.

That’s part of the pedigree, it’s part of the job, it’s part of who they are as a person. People don’t usually rant and rave about how brave A-Rod is for walking down to first base after getting beaned in the hip. People don’t lose their mind every time Peyton goes back to the huddle after being sacked.

The bigger issue

The bigger issue here is that saying Brock has “heart” perfectly illustrates the struggle between where people say Brock is and where he actually is. Let me explain…

If Brock is #1 in the world…

If Brock is the clear cut #1 heavyweight in the world. If Brock is the favorite against everyone. If Brock is a professional MMA fighter and the person others should aspire to be, then you can’t make comments like “heart” about him.

No one talked about “heart” when Anderson Silva came back against Lutter or Henderson. People never mentioned “heart” about Fedor in his fight against Rogers or Arlovski.

You see, if a fighter is truly at that elite level then these things are known. The fighter isn’t going to give up. The fighter is going to try to find a way to win. These are known.

If Brock Lesnar is an up and comer

On the other hand, if Brock is an up and comer, then all of these comments make sense. When a fighter is new we just don’t know how they’ll react to different situations.

Fighters can panic on their back or when they are close to being submitted. Some fighters fold like a lawn chair when hit. Other fighters breakdown mentally when their opponent doesn’t wilt under their opening gambit.

In this context, saying things like “heart” make perfect sense.

See the conflict?

If Brock is #1 and all dominate and known to be awesome, etc. then the fact that he did a basic sub on a completely gassed opponent he overpowers is *NOT* news, it is *NOT* a compliment, it is *NOT* reasonable praise.

If you see the potential in Brock though, and you recognize where he is and where he can be, then you can talk about heart. If you see Brock as an up and comer then you can mention him using some sub techniques and not being “just a wrestler”.

What you cannot do though is claim someone is the all mighty best in the world and then claim them doing basic things that every top 1000 MMA fighter can do as being special.

Bottom Line

Against Carwin, Brock proved to some people that he is an MMA fighter. However, he still needs a few more fights before he proves he’s the best in the world.

If Brock Wins

First, here are my predictions if Brock wins.

The huggers will…

Claim Brock is #1. Which shouldn’t be a surprise because they were claiming he was #1 (or at least #2) before the win. They will probably contend he is unbeatable and that his reign will be longer than Fedor’s.

The Haters will…

Claim Brock won because of his size. Get upset with his intro, his exit, his post fight commentary, the look on his face during the tale of the tape and with how he won (even if by eye beam 0.2 seconds into the fight).

If Brock loses

On the other hand, if Brock loses we’ll be hearing…

The Huggers…

Will point out he was coming off injury and suddenly be perfectly content to mention that Brock is still a little green.

The Haters…

Will take this as proof that Brock doesn’t belong in the UFC, or MMA in general.

Things to think about

Here are just some talking points that seem to often get ignored by both sides. I don’t feel any one point should decide how people view Brock, but I think all points should be acknowledged in the making of such a decision.

Activity

Brock has basically gone a year without fighting. Some might “defend” that by saying he was injured. However, isn’t an athlete being injured worse than just taking time off for family or even serving a suspension from a competition point of view?

Brock is a new fighter and claimed as a huge draw. Yet after tonight he will have fought six times in three years. That’s about 2/3 the activity of your average fighter.

Activity is a very important aspect of MMA because so much ties into it. Fighters can get injured in training camp, they can break down mentally, they are forced to fight at less than 100%, etc.

Success

Here is what we know about the five fights so far…

One was a can. One was a loss. Two were against non-top 10 opponents.

Is that really the roadmap to being the #1 heavyweight in the world?

I feel there are a lot of people that don’t hate Brock, but can’t fathom how anyone can put him #1. If people called him a strong prospect, a bad matchup for people, a potential future #1, then I don’t think you’d see as much hate. Heck, a win over Carwin and I’ll entertain discussions of Brock being top 10!

Remember, most fighters have loses, but when one loss is 20% of your career…it weighs heavier. The same with the weak first fight.

Uncertainties with Carwin

Where does Carwin really stand? I know this is about Brock, but a lot will use his fight against Carwin as “proof” of where he stands.

In my opinion there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding Carwin. How does he handle possibly being put on his back. How deep into a fight can he go.

Realize that Carwin has a great win streak and a clear ability to end a fight. However, his two biggest and most recent wins come against two of the most bi-polar heavyweights the division currently has. Both Mir and Napao are believed capable of top 5 status and both have had brain fart loses in their careers.

Right now I think Carwin has done enough with what he’s been given to be a legit top 10 fighter, but I know some will be curious to see where he stands after another couple fights against quality competition.

The truth

Brock is still a young fighter despite all the promoting. A fighter’s sixth fight can be very important, but it will not determine his legacy. People constantly want that last fight to mean everything and in MMA it simply doesn’t.

My biggest hope for this fight is that Brock is healthy and win or lose he stays healthy. If Brock could get back in the ring by the end of September and then fight again at year end it would help answer a lot of questions.

The UFC Heavyweight division is still very unclear. Carwin can use a couple more high quality fights, Brock can use a few more fights. You’ve got people like Cain and JDS floating out there. There’s no doubt the division is more interesting than it was a few years ago, but I think it’ll be mid-late 2011 before things shakeout a bit.