Ranking Lists

Part of the new site design will see the addition and removal of several of the ranking lists. Please look over the lists and make your voice heard about what you like and what you don’t like.

As was suggested, I also modified the language on several of the lists. If there is any confusion about what a list is designed to show or who is included, please let me know.

Rants

Rants are something I’ve struggled with a lot. I try to keep my opinion out of things to help enforce the incredibly unbiased nature of the site. At times I’ve feared that some people would claim, “See EP doesn’t like Fighter A and that’s why they are low”.

Obviously that isn’t the case and the truth is anyone I would want on this site would know better.

I also find that ranting helps me purge the pain of reading other MMA forums. It literally (yes literally!) hurts me what passes as an “MMA Fan” these days.

So, with the understanding that my rants are simply the opinion of one warped, angry mammal and that my purpose is more to inform than to persuade, I will be posting rants more frequently. If there are events, fighters, mechanics or rules you’d like an evil perspective on, please ask away. I’ve already got a pretty interesting list to get me through the next couple weeks.

Incorrect fighter information

I am incredibly thankful for those that help me clean up incorrect information on the site. There are several fighters I’ve updated, but I don’t always make a note of it on the forums.

What I’m going to be doing going forward is removing the forum threads for those fighters I think are corrected. If you still feel they are incorrect then, please make a new topic about it.

When posting about incorrect information please provide as much information as you can. A link to the fighter on this site helps, a link to the fighter on another site helps. If it is a case of duplicate fighters, then please let me know which should stay and which should go.

Obviously personal tastes can skew things, but here’s what I saw…

Round 1

Round 1 was all Carwin…by a LOT. Brock tried a takedown and got clipped on the way in and landed in neutral position. Carwin stood up right after and soon proceeded to dominate the standup.

Brock got put down and spent a couple minutes on his back getting hammered away on. I won’t say the fight should have been stopped, but we’ve all seen fights stopped for *MUCH* less. If this fight were stopped two minutes in, think what people would be saying.

At the end of the round with about one minute left Brock gets back to his feet, has Carwin against the cage and even with Carwin gassed still doesn’t get the takedown. In fact, Carwin appears to be locking up a Kimura as the round ends.

Even the announcers call this a 10-8 round for Carwin.

Round 2

Round 2 is all Brock. Sadly though, not because of what he does, but because of what Carwin can’t do. Carwin is gassed and takes about 2 seconds to retract his first punch of the round. Brock does a fairly weak takedown attempt (by his standards) and get’s Carwin down.

From there Brock could have ended the fight via tickling if he wanted. Carwin was completely gassed.

Brock’s win or Carwin’s loss

Often times in sport people will ponder whether one team won the fight or the other team lost. I think in the case of this fight it’s obvious that Carwin lost it.

I’m not hating on Brock here, but he didn’t come right out and dominate with his wrestling. He didn’t beat Carwin at the standup game. He didn’t sub Carwin off his back. Those are all things Brock could have done to “win” the fight.

Carwin on the other hand pushed too hard too early. In the pre-fight rant I mentioned the uncertainties surrounding Carwin and this came true. He didn’t have the gas tank for it, he didn’t stay composed and adjust to the fight as it happened, etc.

The good for Brock

Brock showed heart. As silly as it sounds there were a lot of people that expected Brock to drop to his knees and tapout as soon as he took one solid shot.

Obviously, that’s a very silly thing to think. Brock competed at wrestling and football. Somehow people let his “fake wrestling” overshadow everything else. Wrestling is an incredibly difficult sport both physically and mentally. You don’t get as good as Brock at anything without having heart.

The bad of the good

Here’s where people again flip flop on me and think I’m back to being a hater…

Brock is an MMA fighter, he holds the heavyweight title and he’s a grown ass man!!! Saying “he didn’t tap” borders on an insult in my opinion. Look at all the fighters that fight injured, that struggle through fights, that refuse to give up.

That’s part of the pedigree, it’s part of the job, it’s part of who they are as a person. People don’t usually rant and rave about how brave A-Rod is for walking down to first base after getting beaned in the hip. People don’t lose their mind every time Peyton goes back to the huddle after being sacked.

The bigger issue

The bigger issue here is that saying Brock has “heart” perfectly illustrates the struggle between where people say Brock is and where he actually is. Let me explain…

If Brock is #1 in the world…

If Brock is the clear cut #1 heavyweight in the world. If Brock is the favorite against everyone. If Brock is a professional MMA fighter and the person others should aspire to be, then you can’t make comments like “heart” about him.

No one talked about “heart” when Anderson Silva came back against Lutter or Henderson. People never mentioned “heart” about Fedor in his fight against Rogers or Arlovski.

You see, if a fighter is truly at that elite level then these things are known. The fighter isn’t going to give up. The fighter is going to try to find a way to win. These are known.

If Brock Lesnar is an up and comer

On the other hand, if Brock is an up and comer, then all of these comments make sense. When a fighter is new we just don’t know how they’ll react to different situations.

Fighters can panic on their back or when they are close to being submitted. Some fighters fold like a lawn chair when hit. Other fighters breakdown mentally when their opponent doesn’t wilt under their opening gambit.

In this context, saying things like “heart” make perfect sense.

See the conflict?

If Brock is #1 and all dominate and known to be awesome, etc. then the fact that he did a basic sub on a completely gassed opponent he overpowers is *NOT* news, it is *NOT* a compliment, it is *NOT* reasonable praise.

If you see the potential in Brock though, and you recognize where he is and where he can be, then you can talk about heart. If you see Brock as an up and comer then you can mention him using some sub techniques and not being “just a wrestler”.

What you cannot do though is claim someone is the all mighty best in the world and then claim them doing basic things that every top 1000 MMA fighter can do as being special.

Bottom Line

Against Carwin, Brock proved to some people that he is an MMA fighter. However, he still needs a few more fights before he proves he’s the best in the world.

If Brock Wins

First, here are my predictions if Brock wins.

The huggers will…

Claim Brock is #1. Which shouldn’t be a surprise because they were claiming he was #1 (or at least #2) before the win. They will probably contend he is unbeatable and that his reign will be longer than Fedor’s.

The Haters will…

Claim Brock won because of his size. Get upset with his intro, his exit, his post fight commentary, the look on his face during the tale of the tape and with how he won (even if by eye beam 0.2 seconds into the fight).

If Brock loses

On the other hand, if Brock loses we’ll be hearing…

The Huggers…

Will point out he was coming off injury and suddenly be perfectly content to mention that Brock is still a little green.

The Haters…

Will take this as proof that Brock doesn’t belong in the UFC, or MMA in general.

Things to think about

Here are just some talking points that seem to often get ignored by both sides. I don’t feel any one point should decide how people view Brock, but I think all points should be acknowledged in the making of such a decision.

Activity

Brock has basically gone a year without fighting. Some might “defend” that by saying he was injured. However, isn’t an athlete being injured worse than just taking time off for family or even serving a suspension from a competition point of view?

Brock is a new fighter and claimed as a huge draw. Yet after tonight he will have fought six times in three years. That’s about 2/3 the activity of your average fighter.

Activity is a very important aspect of MMA because so much ties into it. Fighters can get injured in training camp, they can break down mentally, they are forced to fight at less than 100%, etc.

Success

Here is what we know about the five fights so far…

One was a can. One was a loss. Two were against non-top 10 opponents.

Is that really the roadmap to being the #1 heavyweight in the world?

I feel there are a lot of people that don’t hate Brock, but can’t fathom how anyone can put him #1. If people called him a strong prospect, a bad matchup for people, a potential future #1, then I don’t think you’d see as much hate. Heck, a win over Carwin and I’ll entertain discussions of Brock being top 10!

Remember, most fighters have loses, but when one loss is 20% of your career…it weighs heavier. The same with the weak first fight.

Uncertainties with Carwin

Where does Carwin really stand? I know this is about Brock, but a lot will use his fight against Carwin as “proof” of where he stands.

In my opinion there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding Carwin. How does he handle possibly being put on his back. How deep into a fight can he go.

Realize that Carwin has a great win streak and a clear ability to end a fight. However, his two biggest and most recent wins come against two of the most bi-polar heavyweights the division currently has. Both Mir and Napao are believed capable of top 5 status and both have had brain fart loses in their careers.

Right now I think Carwin has done enough with what he’s been given to be a legit top 10 fighter, but I know some will be curious to see where he stands after another couple fights against quality competition.

The truth

Brock is still a young fighter despite all the promoting. A fighter’s sixth fight can be very important, but it will not determine his legacy. People constantly want that last fight to mean everything and in MMA it simply doesn’t.

My biggest hope for this fight is that Brock is healthy and win or lose he stays healthy. If Brock could get back in the ring by the end of September and then fight again at year end it would help answer a lot of questions.

The UFC Heavyweight division is still very unclear. Carwin can use a couple more high quality fights, Brock can use a few more fights. You’ve got people like Cain and JDS floating out there. There’s no doubt the division is more interesting than it was a few years ago, but I think it’ll be mid-late 2011 before things shakeout a bit.

OK, enough foreplay!

Data Update

The data update just pushed was the largest since the site went live…by a LOT. Literally thousands of events and fighters added.

Despite my best efforts I know some duplicate information still remains, for example…

Feijao

and

Britt

both appear to get credit for beating the same person twice. I’m trying to remove all duplicate fighters, so please drop a note on the forums if you see such cases. A simple note about the two fighters and which should stay and which should go will be sufficient.

Site Update

It doesn’t look like much, but I got some wallpaper samples, some paint swatches, I consulted with a couple Feng shui experts. (FUNG–SHWAY, yeah that’s how it’s spelled, google it if you don’t believe me).

Once I get the data all cleaned up, then I’ll get the site’s appearance all cleaned up. Hooray for substance over style (unless you are a hot redhead, then you can be as deep as a thimble and I won’t care).

And boom goes the dynamite

Phew. Two months apart, two minutes back together. I think if more of my relationships had that kind of ratio they would have lasted longer.

I’ll probably have an update Monday or Tuesday with tonight’s event and whatever updated information people are able to provide me.

Don’t forget to leave the money on the dresser on the way out…

Expletives excluded

Easy-mode Enabled

Expert experience entailed

Editing expressly eluded

Exact equivalents…Empty

Engrossing ensnaring entertainment

Emotional enthrallment

Effortless enjoyment ensured

Enticingly enigmatic examples enclosed

Embarrassing errors erased

Emboldened empowerment effect expected

Everyone Eager?

Extremely Excited?

Evade Exits…

Enter

Example 1) An MMA fighter’s worth

Not talking about “Fabulous life of MMA fighters” or “celebrity cribs” here. What I’m talking about is the basic case of how much a win over a certain fighter earns another fighter. This is a basic part of the system, but one that is often misunderstood.

See, Fighter A doesn’t have a set value. Beating Fighter A isn’t worth 10 points or 74 points. That’s because the ratings of *BOTH* fighters determines how much a win is worth.

Theoretical Example

Let’s assume we have three fighters:

Fighter A – 1700 rated
Fighter B – 1600 rated
Fighter C – 1500 rated

In a case like this, Fighter B doesn’t have a set value they are worth. If Fighter A were to beat Fighter B they’d get 36 points.

However, if Fighter C were to beat Fighter B they would earn 64 points.

Actual Example

GSP – 2243
Mike Swick – 1932
Chris Lytle – 1887

In this case GSP would get only 14 points for beating Mike Swick. Chris Lytle, on the other hand, could gain 56 points for a win over Mike Swick.

The reason for this is the fighters’ ratings and where they currently stand. Although Mike Swick is a solid fighter, they are definitely below GSP. At the same time, Mike Swick is a bit higher than Chris Lytle is. This leads to one fighter gaining significantly more for beating them.

As you browse the site (and finish reading this rant), always keep in mind that a certain fighter doesn’t have a set value. No one fighter is worth 10 or 20 or 80 points. The ratings of *BOTH* fighters are what determines how many points are won and lost.

Before moving onto the next example, anyone else really want to see Chris Lytle Vs Mike Swick?

Example 2) The Elo giveth and the Elo Taketh away

The other side of victory…is defeat. Let’s take a quick second to look at how points are lost in the system. Much like how the rating of both fighters determines how many points are won, it also determines how many points are lost.

Theoretical example

Again, three fighters:

Fighter A – 1800
Fighter B – 1900
Fighter C – 2000

If Fighter B were to lose to fighter A they would lose 64 points.

A loss to Fighter C would only cost Fighter B 36 points.

Actual Example

Andrei Arlovski had a rating of 2051 when he faced Fedor. Fedor had a rating of 2268. The loss to Fedor cost Andrei 22 points.

Following that loss Andrei had a rating of 2029 and he faced Brett Rogers (who had a rating of 1828 at the time). The loss to Rogers cost Andrei 76 points.

That is over three times as many points lost. Why? Because the first loss was against a *MUCH* higher rated fighter. Some people (and sites!) actually moved Andrei *UP* in their rankings despite the loss.

Rogers though was a much lower ranked fighter. Despite being an up and comer he hadn’t really beat many high ranked opponents and Andrei was clearly the favorite in the fight. Since Andrei loss to a lower rated opponent, he lost even more points.

Example 3) Risk Vs Reward

Anyone who frequents this site (thank you!) has undoubtedly seen me discuss risk vs reward. I mention it here as example three because Risk Vs Reward is really Example 1 + Example 2 (that’s a math joke, it’s OK to laugh).

Theoretical Example

Three fighters walk into an arena…

Fighter A – 1800
Fighter B – 2200
Fighter C – 1800

If we look at the possible matchups and incorporate Examples 1 and 2 we see:

Fighter A Vs Fighter B
Fighter can *WIN* 91 points or *LOSE* 9 points
That means Fighter B can *LOSE* 91 points or *WIN* 9 points

That is just terrible. Basically Fighter B is risking *TEN TIMES* as many points as they can possible gain.

If we instead consider Fighter A Vs Fighter C…
Fighter A can *WIN* 50 points or *LOSE* 50 points
Fighter C can *WIN* 50 points or *LOSE* 50 points

That seems pretty balanced in terms of risk vs reward, right?

Now, obviously not every fighter can be matched up against fighters with identical ratings, but even a 40/60 split would be more reasonable than the 10/90 we saw in the case of Fighter A vs Fighter B.

Actual Example

Let’s look at Mike Swick again.

Two fights again Mike took on Dan Hardy. At the time their ratings were:

Swick – 2035
Hardy – 2048

That means Mike could win 52 points for a win, or (as wound up happening) lose 48 points. This was a number one contender type of fight and as you can see both fighters had very high ratings. This to me is an excellent example of a fight that makes “ranking sense” and has reasonable Risk Vs Reward for both fighters.

To contrast that fight, look at Mike Swick’s previous fight…

Swick – 2009
Saunders – 1829

Now I have nothing against Ben (except maybe his nickname), but it’s very obvious who had more to gain and who had more to lose in this fight. At the time of the fight Swick was becoming a consensus top 10 fighter and Saunders was a prospect with just a couple wins in the UFC after some time on the ultimate fighter.

For winning the fight Swick earned 26 points. That’s a fair number of points, but considering the situation and the 74 points he was risking I think this fight was on the other side of reasonable. Mike clearly had a *LOT* more to lose and very little to gain. Even the announcers mentioned that Saunders really had nothing to lose in the fight.

Some like to talk about “year of the upset” and how “volatile” MMA is, but that’s only because the matches get made in the first place. Just because Swick won doesn’t mean it was OK to make such a fight. MMA is a sport and the fighters are athletes. As such, both fighters should have reasonably balanced “risk” and reasonably balanced “reward”.

Example 4)Bottom Feeding

One of the false claims people often make about the system used on the site is along the lines of,

“It doesn’t matter who you beat, just beating 10 cans is better than beating 9 title holders”.

I’m going to piggyback a bit on Example 1 (I reference so you can scroll back up if needed) and show you how the system prevents such bottom feeding.

Theoretical Example

I’m going to give the fighter the benefit of the doubt here and say that they just started out and had a 1500 rating. I’m then going to play horrible match maker and continue to match them up against 1500 rated opponents.

Fight 1 – 1500 rating to start
Win earns +50 rating

Fight 2 – 1550 rating to start
Win earns +43 rating

Fight 3 – 1593 rating to start
Win earns +37 rating

Notice what is happening? When our theoretical fighter had a 1500 rating, then facing a 1500 rated opponent was reasonable and earned them good points (+50). As they win though their rating goes up, that means the rating of their opponent has to also go up in order for them to continue to accrue similar rating gains.

In this case our fighter is continuing to be matched up against 1500 rated fighters. As they beat them, their rating will increase by less and less.

*Skip ahead*

Fight 10 – 1776 rating to start
Win earns +17

See how the points have dwindled? Our fighter is now getting about 1/3 of the points they previously got. This situation will only get worse.

Since I’m not going to provide an actual example here, I’m going to say a bit more (lucky you).

When we consider this situation using Example 1 we see that the fighter is getting less and less for a victory. Now let’s also consider how devastating a loss would be.

If in fight 10 our fight instead *LOST* instead of winning they’d have:

Fight 10 – 1776 rating to start
Loss costs them -83 rating

That means with a single loss our fighter is now back down at 1693. That single loss offset almost all of the points from this fighter’s previous *FOUR* wins combined.

By continuing to face weaker competition (potentially through no fault of their own) our fighter is earning less and less and risking more and more. Even without losing the system creates a relative ceiling that they simply can’t surpass unless better matchmaking happens.

In theory you would hope a fighter that is 9-0 against 1500 rated opponents gets a bump in competition (I’d hope for it long before 9-0), but even if it doesn’t this is one way the system can pseudo correct for poor match making.

Example 5) Strength of Schedule

Strength of Schedule is a reasonably hot topic and though I’m glad to see it discussed, I can’t help but feel some don’t “quite” get it. When we talk about a fighter’s strength of schedule we are talking about the level of opposition they have faced.

I think strength of schedule is an intriguing stat, but many miss how big a factor it already plays in calculating a fighters base “rating”.

Theoretical Example

In example 4 we saw what happens when a fighter goes 10-0 against 10 1500 rated opponents. Now let’s contrast that against a fighter going 10-0 against 1800 rated opponents.

Fighter A – 10 wins against 1500 rated opponents
SoS – 1500
Rating – 1793

Fighter B – 10 wins against 1800 rated opponents
SoS – 1800
Rating – 2012

That means Fighter B has a 219 rating point advantage. That is a *TON*. Not to mention, Fighter B actually got so high that taking on 1800 rated opponents was a bit weak for them.

How big an advantage is it? Well, if Fighter B (instead of winning all 10) won their first 8 and then *LOST* their next two, they would have a rating of…1825.

That’s right, by taking on stronger fighters Fighter B is able to offset the losses and still come out ahead of Fighter A.

Example 6) What have you done for me lately?

Another common misconception about the site is that old fights matter the same (if not more) than more recent fights. This is quite false and I’d like to provide a few examples to illustrate this.

Theoretical Example

In this example I want to re-use Fighter B from above. Remember this fighter had 10 fights and always fought 1800 rated opponents.

Here are three scenarios…

All wins – Final rating 2012
Lost *LAST* fight – Final rating 1912
Lost *FIRST* fight – Final rating 1981

See that?

If we take “all wins” as a baseline (2012) we see that losing their last fight results in Fighter B being a full 100 points lower than they could be. By losing their *FIRST* fight though Fighter B winds up at 1981 rating which is only 31 points lower than they could be.

Why is that?

It’s because the value of a fight is based upon the ratings of *BOTH* fighters. By losing their first fight that means Fighter B had a lower rating going into their second fight. That means they *WON* more points for it.

When a fighter loses their last fight though, they haven’t had time to regain any points. This means the most recent fight has the biggest impact on a fight. Not an over-the-top–all-or-nothing-screw-sport level of impact, but still the strongest impact.

Actual Example

Now that we see how important recent fights are, let’s take a look at how important older fights are.

One of the most discussed fighters in MMA is Fedor. On this site Fedor currently has the highest all time rating (2300). Many feel this is because of his old fights and that fights from 10(ish) years ago are what makes his rating so high.

For my first example I want you to follow me back to May of 2000 as I give Fedor an even *HIGHER* rating. That’s right, a *HIGHER* rating. Instead of saying that Fedor had a 1500 rating in May and just started his career I want you to assume he’d been fighting for YEARS previous to that.

For this example let’s say that in May of 2000 (when Fedor really had his first fight) we’ll say that he was already 2000 rated. That is a 500 points rating jump that we are giving him. So now, with years of past wins having gotten Fedor to 2000 rating, we now step through his exact career.

The result?

On 2009-11-07
Rating – 2316

Yup, 16 points. We gave Fedor *YEARS* more wins, gave him over 500 more rating points and he still wound up almost exactly where he was. Why? Look back at the previous examples (all of them, you didn’t laugh enough yet and the jokes are there if you look for them).

I chose Fedor in part because he is so highly discussed, but also because his rating is the most extreme. If we use a fighter like Big Nog and do the same (give them an extra 500 rating to start) we see that their rating would only be 8 points different today if the “rest” of their career played out the exact same.

To take it from the other side, if we said Anderson lost a *TON* before his career started and that he had a 1000 rating instead of a 1500 rating at the time of his “first” fight, we’d see that his rating would only be about 18 points different today.

Since we now know that having a super high (or low) rating doesn’t carry over indefinitely, let’s look at some interesting (and potentially inflammatory) examples.

Staying with Fedor let’s say instead of starting his career in May of 2000 that he instead started it in January of 2005. Why that date? Because it’s *AFTER* his second Nog win. So let’s set Fedor to 1500 rating, and roll through his career from 2005 till now.

Result?

Rating – 2071

Not quite his current 2300, but he lost 5 years of fights, including not one, but TWO Nog wins.

I picked the 2005-01-01 date mostly at random, but let’s consider a more specific date in history….

Fedor starting at 1500 rating on 2007-06-02 (date ring a bell?)
Fedor’s “current” rating would be…1814

For those that get the date, they can handle the comparison themselves. Just keep in mind that if Fedor had “started” on that date, then his first win was legit (it was Brock’s intended first opponent) he then beat back to back former UFC champions, and then beat a 10-0 contender. If those are your first four fights, that’s pretty impressive. Fedor’s activity during this time range was definitely low though.

Now, Fedor’s rating during this time isn’t the highest of all fighters (GSP’s is higher and Anderson’s is insane). It does help illustrate his recent accomplishments though. I don’t want to get off on a sub-rant, but many like to bash Fedor and say all of his “good” wins are in the past. There’s no doubt that prime crocop, some wins over nog and other fights are great. However, in his last three fights Fedor has beaten two former UFC champions (both top 5ish at the time of the fight) and a 10-0 contender (top 10ish at the time).

If you don’t consider Fedor #1 due to activity, brain damage or American arrogance, that’s OK and I can logically understand it. The people that say he isn’t “top 10″ or that Carwin has done more literally cause brain bleeds and god to smite kittens though.

Pencils down…

So, we’ve looked at “wins”, we’ve looked at “losses”. We’ve looked activity (though no specifically covered it’s there if you look for it). We’ve discussed bottom feeding, strength of schedule and all kinds of other fun things.

The system on this site is very powerful, very clean and, oh yeah, fair. Perfect? No, but also not as bad as some try to claim.

If there are any cases you’d like to see covered in more detail (other readers hope not), then let me know.

Til next time,
- Evil Envoy Extraordinary

Cain Velasquez

There’s a ton to say here, but I’ll try to keep it brief (let’s be honest, we all know I’m going to fail).

First and foremost, grats to him. Nog had a huge experience edge and Cain seemed very relaxed. On the topic of experience, do people realize just how far Cain has climbed and how fast? His first fight was less than 3 and a half years ago. He now sits within the top 50.

Looking at it deeper you realize after two quick fights at the end of 2006 he didn’t have another fight until April of 2008. One more fight in 2008, three in 2009 (a reasonable number) and here he is as one of the (I’d hope) undisputed top heavyweights currently in the sport.

Speaking of undisputed, can anyone logically explain to me how some still have Brock ranked higher than Cain? Here’s the breakdown…

Brock Lesnar Vs Cain Velasquez

Strength of Schedule is very close and Cain has simply fought more, won more, finished more fights, etc. Despite fighting more Cain has fewer losses. I know some will claim Brock has the belt, but there is so much wrong with that “logic” that I will dedicate an entire rant to shooting such a silly statement down if anyone even entertains the thought of posting such nonsense.

I’m not a huge Cain fan, but I think he’s shown how quickly someone can climb the ranks when they get decent matchmaking and win their fights.

Nog

When I think about how things went and where they stand I honestly think many fans have no idea where Nog has been. He’s the “warrior”, he’s got the “heart” and I’m not quite sure how anyone could dislike him.

Having said that, some people seem surprised he’s lost more frequently of late. Let’s be honest here, Nog wasn’t some offensive juggernaut that overwhelmed his opponents for quick first round finishes. Many of his fights saw later rounds, and he absorbed a *TON* of punishment. Several of his “wins” could have easily been stopped. When I first saw the Sapp fight I honestly thought he was dead at one point.

Nog is a great fighter and I wish him the best, but his decline didn’t come out of no where. This has been happening for awhile and some people chose to ignore it because refs didn’t stop fights and Nog somehow found a way to pull out the “W”.

The HW Division

What a fucking mess. Seriously, just wow.

This has been going on for awhile and although I hope it cleans itself up soon, it’s pretty bad. Cain moves to three, which seems reasonable, but Nog seems “too high”.

Why is Nog “too high”? Because other people aren’t winning. Overall the HW ratings are quite low. Nog is #2, but in other weight classes he’d be:

LHW – 6th
MW – 6th
WW – 7th
LW – 6th

Those to me seem more like where he should be. The problem? No one else at HW has much of a streak going. We’ve got some bad matchmaking, some “upcoming fights”, some inactive fighters, and the whole thing just adds up to one big mess.

Lots of fighters are in action soon though, so I’m hopefully with title holders getting back into action, and a few more events things will get fixed right up.

Wandy Vs Bisping

First…I checked when someone asked and Wandy is the only fighter I have currently listed who has “axe” anywhere in their nickname.

Second…I think Bisping has done a *LOT* right lately from a PR perspective. His last post fight was mostly spot on and leading into the Wandy fight he said a lot right.

With that said, I just don’t like how “close” this fight was. This fight is just one example, but it just happened, so I’m going to use it.

The way the fight played out you had Wandy almost finish the fight at the end of the second…possibly on his way to finishing it in the third and the fight was 29-28. Before you say “but Wandy won”, understand that some sites had some people score the fight for Bisping. Sadly, with where the rules currently stand, I understand how that could happen.

Nothing against Bisping, but without a time limit and judges I’m not sure what his “plan for victory” was. Wandy had striking attempts to end the fight, he even had a possible submission to end the fight. Did anyone see any sign that Wandy couldn’t have gone 5 or 7 or 9 or however many rounds it took for him to finally finish Bisping.

Doesn’t it seem a bit off that in a fight where one guy didn’t do hardly anything to “win” (finish) the fight and another came close multiple times that the fight was “close”? The fact that a fight like this is close is why some bad decisions happen.

Lytle Vs Foster

As a point of contrast to the last fight…

The important thing to note here is that this was *NOT* some technique-less slobberknocker. Sometimes people think “action” means two fighters standing near each other and arm punching for 2 minutes.

This fight had a variety of striking (and some grappling!). Both fighters looked willing to engage and it seemed very unlikely this fight would go to decision. Not only did fans see action, but they also saw some technique and I really wish more fights played out this way.

My biggest fear is that by speedranting I’ll cross a fine line between ranting and raving. If I do cross such a line, please pretend this rant was called, “An attempt at speed raving” and that it was a huge success.

How the fuck do you boo during a Melvin Manhoef fight?

*takes a breath…ready….GO!!!*

How the fuck do you boo during a Melvin Manhoef fight? Seriously, the guy has 24 wins, 23 by (t)KO! Here’s how a Melvin fight goes…The fighters enter the ring, the ref gets the fuck out of the way and Melvin glides across the ring. He measures distance, lets a preacher give his opponent their last rites and then unloads more damage than most tropical-fucking-storms!!

Everyday I worry I’m going to hear that Melvin was out on the town, forgot where he was, put his hands in his pockets and got arrested on a concealed weapons charge. Seriously, the dude is straight death. Don’t boo, hell, don’t even blink or you might the whole fight.

*and exhale*

OK, that might have been a bit closer to a “rave”, but damn. Melvin is almost exactly what most fans claim they want and some actually boo when he doesn’t go all Heath Herring and KO the guy before the opening bell!?

More data, More Data

I’ve added a ton (literally 2k+) fighters, events, and fights recently. In doing so I’ve also, sadly, introduced a few duplicate fights and fighters. One of the real problems with MMA that I’ve mentioned is that “official” has some gray area. Some have already pointed out a few of the mistakes (thanks elfudge) and I’ll be updating later this week.

If you notice that a fighter is missing fights, that they aren’t listed, that they are listed twice, or whatever, please go to the forums…

http://www.mma-elo.com/forums/

and post in the appropriate section. Whenever possible please include a link to the fighter(s) in question as it will help me update much faster.

*phew* OK that was more of a speed rant. Let’s see if I can keep it going…

Random Fighter thoughts

Random thoughts from past and upcoming fights.

Gomi Vs Florian

Gomi and Florian are tied on rating.

http://www.mma-elo.com/ranks.php?r=7

2024. A solid rating. Though 2024 is way down from where Gomi was. It’s also an interesting spot for Florian who wins his way up, but has lost to the very highest ranked fighters that he’s faced. I think this is an interesting matchup and I really hope both fighters look good.

Diaz Vs Hieron?

Someone told me that Diaz (now #6 WW) claimed Hieron (now #11) didn’t deserve the title shot. Although I can think of a few other matchups for Diaz, I’m not sure there is a better one to be made at 170 currently. Hieron has won 7 in a row and is in the kind of spot rating/ranking wise where he should get a difficult fight.

Bonus Diaz Note – Good god that guy has reach. Whenever people cling to weight I can’t help but look back at some of Nick’s fights and wonder, “was it the 5 inches of reach or an extra 2lbs that really made the difference in that fight”. Weight can matter, don’t get me wrong. However, Nick has a huge advantage against a lot of people due to his height/reach.

Herschel Walker Vs Kimbo Slice

Stuff like this is how I earn the Evil part of my name. Honestly though, who ya got!?

Elo “bias”

I have a feeling this might turn into a rave, but here goes…

*inhale…aim….FIRE*

You’ve got to be some kind of mouth breathing, inbred, flipper-handed, IQ below the speed limit dumb ass to spout shit about Elo “bias”.

(hrmmm…yeah…seems ravey…)

This is seems like one of those (not rare enough) cases where people are talking for the sake of talking without bothering to put any thought at all into what they are actually saying or what it means. Deep down inside (for the sake of my dog, and the children, and the future of this planet) I pray the people saying this stuff mis-typed and their spellchecker put in “bias” and they just went with it.

Let me explain something one more time (though highly unlikely to be the last time). Elo *IS NOT BIASED*.

Occasionally people will say something like, “Elo is biased in it’s implementation”. No it fucking isn’t.

Here is what the core system does…

It gives points for winning…

It takes points for losing…

It rewards challenging higher level competition.

Where is the bias in that!?!?

Are you telling me the NFL playoffs are “biased” in favor of 14-2 teams over 2-14 teams?!? Clearly MLB is doing it all wrong by giving teams a “win point” (shows up in the *WIN* column) when they win a game and giving a “loss point” (shows up in the *LOSS* column) after teams finish their baseball games.

I don’t care if you get high level math, don’t care if you like standard deviation, if you speak binary or if you can even do your own taxes. This isn’t some abstract math conception. This doesn’t require a slide rule or a triangle or a protractor.

On this site, the person that wins GAINS POINTS, the person that loses…*gasp* loses points. If you are honestly so blinded by dislike and deprived of oxygen that your best attack against this site is that it’s biased in favor of winners and against losers…kill yourself.

*sniff sniff…scratch scratch* OK I’m awake…what more do you want from me?

I hope everyone had a happy whatever they celebrated and accomplishes anything they have recently decided to do! (PC enough?)

As long as I don’t hit the snooze button and go back to sleep for another few weeks I’ll be doing a lot of updating (and a bit of ranting) over the next few days. Year end events (and the first few from this year) are updated and ready to go live.

How to calculate Strength of Schedule

Accurately calculating the Strength of Schedule for MMA fighters requires clearly defining what it is you are looking for. I’m a strong believe that many times it is more about the “right stat for you” than the “right stat” in general. While some prefer a pure strength of schedule that is simply calculated by taking the average rating of an MMA fighter’s opponents, others prefer a different approach. For those that prefer the pure calculation please check out MMA Fighters Ranked by Strength of Schedule.

The calculation for strength of schedule used in this rant is what I refer to as the “big game hunter” approach. What we are looking at with this approach is who has won the biggest fights. This approach doesn’t focus on average quality of opposition, but rather on average quality of an MMA fighter’s biggest wins. In order to provide a broader picture I’ll be looking at the BGHSoS(Big Game Hunter Strength of Schedule) at various win totals for MMA fighters.

MMA Strength of Schedule – One Big One

Since we are looking at a fence of a single MMA win, that means our list above basically tells us who had the single biggest win. Here are some random things I found interesting…

Rampage Jackson

Rampage sits at first because of his victory over Chuck Liddell. Although the “Iceman” seems to get a lot of hate these days, it’s hard to deny just how impressive his career was. On the amusing side of things it is interesting to note that Rampage beat Chuck at a time that snapped a seven fight win streak. That win streak is the same streak Chuck started after Rampage beat him about three and a half years earlier. Had rampage lost that first fight, this win over Chuck would have been even more impressive.

Big Nog

Don’t bother looking back over the list…Big Nog isn’t on it. What is interesting though is what a big role he played in it. Big Nog is responsible for Mir at #2, Fedor at #3, and Josh Barnett at #6. I honestly think more than anyone else Nog suffers from Fedor existing. Yes, the losses physically hurt (or should have, you never know with Nog), but Nog is just *THAT* damn good. He is the #2 guy that no one would question as #1 if not for #1 existing. His career is insane, his “style” is inspiring and his impact on MMA is undeniable.

One Hit Wonders

Fighters like Matt Serra (#12), Keith Jardine (#13), Brian Bowles (#17), and Marcus Aurelio (#18) show up on the list due to a single huge win in their careers, but sadly fall off the list once we extend the strength of schedule criteria out to several wins.

Anderson Silva

An MMA fighter that was originally a bit lower than I expected (#21) was Anderson. Once I took a look back at his career though I realized that although MMA fighters like Rich Franklin are amazing wins (and amazing fighters in their own right) they were never quite at the level that say Big Nog was. Don’t worry though, Anderson has a *LOT* of high quality wins and you’ll see his name move up the list soon.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Rematches FTW!

Fedor

Not one, but *TWO* Nogs! Seriously, beating Nog once was enough to get two people into the top 5 on the single win Strength of Schedule list and accounted for three of the top 10. Beating him twice is…crazy. (insert “Russian” joke here if you feel it necessary)

Movers and Shakers

The win over CroCop was huge, but after that there is a big drop off for Gonzaga. Say “Hi” to him at #22 above because it’s the last you’ll see of him in this rant. Perhaps if we re-do this rant in another year he will have gotten another couple of big wins (Will I even still be ranting in a year?).

Also dropping down some is Mir (from #2 to #9). While moving up is Anderson (going from #21 to #11).

MMA Strength of Schedule – Triology!

The Iceman Cometh

It might seem odd, but Chuck finally premiers on the all time strength of schedule ranking list (Big Game Hunter style!) at #16. This is due to his solid wins over solid competition and the fact that several of the “one hit wonders” have now fallen off the list. It may have taken Chuck until “three” to get here, but now he’s here to stay.

Movers and Shakers

Fedor and GSP flip flop at the top of the list. Forrest falls outside the top 5, but still stays high (#8) due to the big wins over Rampage and Shogun. Frank Mir falls to #20, and will be off the remainder of the Strength of Schedule lists that follow. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Barnett, he dropped from #6 to #25, but now appears to be going back up the list (now at #24).

MMA Strength of Schedule – Jimmie Johnson Style

Josh Koscheck

Making his only appearance on any of the strength of schedule lists for this rant is Josh Koscheck at #24. One reason this is interesting is because using a career wide, average strength of opposition (including wins and losses) approach to strength of schedule we see Josh would be #5. This shows how the different approaches can greatly influence the results. Another reason it is interesting is because of how Josh is perceived. It seems like he has to constantly prove he is a top fighter at welterweight and somehow peoples’ dislike of him overshadows his achievements.

Not a whole lot of shaking going on

The top seven spots remain unchanged except for Lyoto and Rampage swapping spots four and five.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Count the biggest wins on one hand

The underrated

Several names on the list might seem out of place to some MMA fans. Fighters like Sonnen (#15), Shields (#17), Sobral (#19), and Hansen (#20) seem to get dissed an inappropriate amount. We are at five fights on our Big Game Hunter Strength of Schedule and these guys are on the list while a lot of bigger name fighters dropped off a couple wins ago.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Perfect 10

Your browser and eyes are likely fine

If the above table looks different than the last few, it’s OK. If the above table looks the same then something is likely wrong with your browser and/or your eyes.

Shinya Aoki

Jumping up to 10 wins (from 5) we see Shinya Aoki climb to the #5 slot. Shinya is so under appreciated it actually goes negative and becomes hate for some people. From talking with most people it seems that his appearance and lack of exposure are two of the biggest problems. Doesn’t it seem kind of strange that a lack of recognition and appearance would both be a problem at the same time?

In terms of recognition it stems not only from people not “getting” Aoki, but them not getting his opponents. Fighters like Hellboy (see above), Shaolin, Alvarez, JZ and others are just scary good fighters. Sadly, many haven’t seen the people Aoki has beaten fight, so it’s hard to give him the credit he deserves.

The issues with appearance stem from Aoki not “looking” like a fighter. He’s rather small looking, he wears flashy pants, and many don’t think he “looks” like he should win. Many of these people are the ones that think Fedor is out of shape, that think Brock is already the greatest HW of all time and that Roy Nelson was the underdog against Schaub.

As sad as it might sound (or as hard as it might be to believe) if Aoki looked a bit different and people had a broader MMA knowledge base then he would show up “p4p” talks and “LW GOAT” talks a *LOT* more often.

MMA Strength of Schedule – Make it an even 15

Flip Flop at the Top

Here after 15 wins we see Anderson take over the top spot (Edging out Fedor whom he was tied with after 10). GSP falls to third. Chuck moves back up into the top 5 (from #6 after 10 MMA wins) and Big Nog jumps all the way to #4 (from #9 after 10 MMA wins) to round out the top 5.

Parting Reminder

Remember that what we are looking at here is average “big” wins at specific limits. Like most stats there are benefits and downsides to using this approach to Strength of Schedule for MMA. Some may find it quite interesting and others may ignore it entirely. Where I think this can be interesting is when people try to use a “weaker” fight as a way to ignore harder fights.

It seems as though some people would rather see a fighter have 2 “big” wins (and possibly a loss), than see a fighter with 3 “big” wins and a couple weaker wins. For some people the wins over “weaker” fighters somehow diminish the wins over stronger opponents.

What about you? Are you a “big game hunter” kind of person, or do you tend to prefer the overall pure Strength of Schedule that factors in loses as well as wins for MMA fighters?

Roy Neslon Wins Ultimate Fighter Season 10 Finale

You would think I’d see that headline more, but it appears other topics are ruling the discuss-o-sphere. Perhaps part of the reason it’s not getting as much attention is because it’s not “breaking news”? Roy actually went onto the ultimate fighter with over an 1800 rating. That’s higher than many from “the comeback” season of the ultimate fighter.

Overall Roy stood out in the initial group a lot like Mac did. These were both veteran fighters with solid fights on their records. Doesn’t it seem kind of silly that a fighter that had top position on Arlovski would have to beat Kimbo Slice as part of his requirement to get into the UFC?

I’m happy for Roy, but at the same time the situation bothers me a bit. If Roy looked different, I think he’d be more liked. It seems many get distracted by his tummy and fail to recognize how good he is. Perhaps this is offset by his opponents making the same mistake. *shrugs*

Even more troubling to me though is how a legitimate fighter like Nelson has to jump through hoops to get into the UFC, but someone like Kimbo is handed the keys to the kingdom. There is a line between sport and spectacle, a line between MMA and MME, a line of respect for other fighters and of legitimacy to the craft, and I can’t grasp anyone not finding this situation on the other side of that line.

Kimbo Slice

Some will read this and think I’m being hard on Kimbo, but understand that it wasn’t long ago I was explaining that Kimbo Slice is not a disappointment. Clearly I’m not just a blind Kimbo hater and I try very hard to give him as much credit as he deserves…just not *TOO* much.

That last part is really where the issue lies. Understand that Kimbo Slice walked into the octagon against a not top anything light heavyweight and went to decision. Not even a good decision. No disrespect to Houston, but he got floored by a non-top 20 light heavyweight in a matter of seconds.

Look, this is that line between sport and spectacle I keep seeing people step over like it’s not even there. If Kimbo is a “legitimate” heavyweight for the UFC, then put him in there with someone. Give him Justin Mccully, give him Eddie Sanchez, give him someone. Don’t bring back a 9-4 guy with a suspect chin and make the fight catchweight and then act like it meant something.

This whole situation just reeks of money over sport. How is it EliteXC was considered a “weaker” promotion and had Kimbo and that was a problem, but a “better” promotion can have him now and it’s OK.

I’m sure some of you are going to edu-ma-cate me about how Kimbo has improved, but that is mostly BS. Kimbo was completely shut down by a guy circling!!! Seriously, Jimmie Johnson has the turning thing down, maybe that should be Kimbo’s next fight and we’ll see if he’s learned how to handle such high level technique.

On top of that you saw numerous openings for Kimbo that he either didn’t notice or was too slow to capitalize on. I’m not talking too slow like hand speed, I’m talking mentally. At times it’s good you see him “thinking” and at others it’s just painful to watch. I’m not talking working out of a tough situation, I’m talking positions most cover in their first couple months of training.

Yet again, I’m sure some will tell me that he’s “learning” and that he’s at ATT now and all this stuff. Look, Kimbo Slice didn’t roll off Youtube a month ago. This wasn’t Kimbo being plucked from the interwebs and thrown in the ring with Big Nog. This was a guy who’s first professional fight was over 2 years ago at this point. On top of that there was the time he spent training with Bas!

Checklist of why I’m so upset:

- Did Kimbo Win the show? Nope
- Did Kimbo Win a fight on the show? Nope
- Did Kimbo take every oppurtunity on the show to earn a spot in the UFC? *NOPE*

That last one is the one that gets me most. “He’s trying, He wants it” Bullshit! Bull-fucking-shit!!! There was a point on the show where Kimbo could have stepped up and instead he acted like an entitled douchebag. “I don’t want another loss”…”I’m not 100%” Too fucking bad. Seriously, too fucking bad. We have fighters with staph and knee injuries and broken hands, and you won’t get a fucking cortisone shot!?

Maybe this sounds rough, but the situation just felt like he was saying, “I know I’m going to get to fight again anyway, so why bother looking bad again”. Sure, why would you want to test yourself again, why would you want to “earn” something when so much is handed to you. Believe it or not, I don’t think Kimbo is a hard guy to like (or at least cheer for). The way this played out though really annoyed me and is just a huge blemish on the sport.

Honest question: how much harder could Kimbo have fucked up on the show. He didn’t win, he didn’t win a single fight, he basically refused to fight…honestly what would have kept him out of the UFC?!

Once he gets to the UFC he’s then given a catchweight fight against a guy that’s lost 3 out of his last 4 and is only back in the UFC for this fight. Could we please be a little less obvious about how hard we are trying to make Kimbo look good? I’m not saying throw him in there with Nog, I dont’ even want him fighting Carwin, but why not at least give him a HW that was already on the roster? Wouldn’t that have made it look a bit more respectable? Made it look just a bit more legitimate?

If “Kimbo Slice” is going to be a legitimate MMA fighter and worthy of being on “the best roster in MMA” then he needs to step *WAY* up. Truth be told with the last few years he’s had and the basics he still doesn’t grasp, I’m honestly not sure it’ll happen. If people want to keep him as a PPV cashcow (as a form of stupid-tax on some “MMA Fans”), then fine…but could we at least be honest about it.

Jones Vs Hamill – DQ?

This section is more of a question than an answer. I’m going over the fight in my head, I’m looking at the rules and I’m just not sure how it sits with me.

Instant Replay in MMA

I like that instant replay was used. This is exactly the type of situation that it can be useful.

Clarified Call

Another positive was that the call was explained. It appears Jones originally was going to be awarded a TKO, but that was later changed. I thought seeing Keith Kizer explain both the rule and it’s application was a good thing. Having a calm and profession explanation given when a fight ends in a violent and bloody way helps keep people from mindlessly calling the sport cockfighting.

The question

Was a DQ really the best possible call here? Here are the things I can’t quite line up in my head. Please help me out…

Jones was winning

Not a little bit, not a Houston Vs Kimbo two strikes thrown instead of one, but a “OMFG this better be a 10-8 round and I might see a 10-7″. I think it’s important to note the situation at the time of the infraction. This wasn’t Jones late in the third round of a fight he was losing kicking Hamill in the nuts intentionally.

Wasn’t intentional

I think this is another factor for me. Jones wasn’t warned throughout the fight (DONT GRAB THE CAGE!!!), he wasn’t kneeing Hamill in the nuts all night or hammer fisting the back of his head with abandon.

The fight could have been stopped

This might be one of the biggest holdups for me. Jones was winning as I said, but in this regard I’m talking about the reffing. Hamill admitted he couldn’t really defend himself, Jones was looking at the ref and showed interest in simply having the fight stopped.

The reason this is so important is because the “illegal strike” is far from the only reason the fight was stopped. The rule talks about “contributing” to the damage and the stoppage and to that degree it’s likely true. However, the illegal strikes weren’t necessary for the fight to have been stopped. Hamill had sustained a ton of damage and I don’t think a poke to the eye in the middle of a flurry against the cage on a fighter out on their feet should be a “DQ” either.

Lots of this will come down to judgment and personal taste, but Jones didn’t appear to be looking for an easy ref stoppage. This wasn’t Roy slapping a guy in the head, it was Franklin pummeling MacDonald. Jones showed a willingness to simply have the fight stopped and the ref wouldn’t do it.

I’m usually all in favor of giving every fighter as much of a chance as possible, but this wasn’t two or three shots, this wasn’t a flash knockdown. Hamill was incapable of getting Jones off him. Without the illegal shots the fight was either going to be stopped eventually, or Hamill was going to get pummeled for another minute(ish).

What about a No Contest?

All of the above come together and make me wonder if a “DQ” is really the right call. Think about what a DQ does and a DQ says. It basically says that Hamill won, it says that Jones lost and it pseudo implies that Hamill could have won if not for the “illegal” activity by Jones.

Did anyone see any honest indication that Hamill would win? Honestly, remove the elbow strikes and have Jones hug him for the rest of the round and it’s still 10-8. Add in the shoulder problem and it is possible Hamill doesn’t even answer the bell for the second round (*IF* they survive the rest of the first round). Hamill has a ton of heart and many would have tapped, but is that really enough for a “win”?

Did Jones use the strikes to gain any real advantage? I really don’t think so. He was dominating the fight (it could have been stopped) and he was just keeping busy. I don’t deny the strikes did damage, but they were far…*FAR* from the only damage.

In a case like this I honestly wonder if a “No contest” would be a better call. What a No contest does is remove the fight. That means Hamill doesn’t take a loss, it means Jones doesn’t get a win. Doesn’t that seem like a more reasonable interpretation of what happened? That way Hamill doesn’t eat a loss that was “partly” due to illegal activity and Jones still “loses” a win.

Maybe this is just how I’m looking at the terms and what they reflect, but “DQ” just doesn’t sit quite right.

- If Hamill was winning
- If the fight had been close
- If Jones had been warned
- If the fight couldn’t have been stopped previously

If any of those things I don’t think I’d have minded so much. I get the rule, I like that replay was used and everything sounds right. Everything except Hamill being the “winner” and Jones being the “loser”.