For years the heavyweight division has been one of the ugliest in terms of rankings. You had a situation where the highest overall rated fighter in MMA sat atop the division with one of the lowest average ratings. The situation came about largely due to organizational lines, injuries and occasionally questionable matchmaking.
Thankfully the situation seems poised to improve in the coming months. Strikeforce has announced a grand prix containing several of the top ranked heavyweights in the world. Let’s take a look at where the fighters involved currently stand and how things might look following the tourney.
The fallen
I originally ranted this rant prior to the first two fights taking place. Since we now know that both Fedor and Arlovski lost I’m going to save some space by removing their “what-if” sections.
Both of these guys are fantastic fighters that have earned a lot more respect than they are currently getting, so if anyone wants separate rants for them I will gladly accommodate. For those only slightly interested: Fedor would be #1 if he won (shocking) and Arlovski would very (VERY) closely mimic Sergei’s rankings.
Brett Rogers
With an 1870 rating Brett is the lowest rated fighter in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix. His rating currently puts him just outside the top 20 in the heavyweight division.
I would have really liked to see him get one more decent win prior to the tourney starting. However, he was able to win a unanimous decision in October so that he didn’t have to enter the tourney on a two fight losing streak.
Best Case
The best case scenario for Brett (ratings wise) is to beat Barnett, then beat Werdum, then beat Silva in the finals. This would put Brett up to 2085 and likely put him top 3 in the heavyweight division. Remember, in this scenario he beat Barnett and Silva who would both fall.
Worst Case
Pretty straight forward, but a loss in the first round to Barnett would drop Brett to 1849 and likely leave him around #25 in the heavyweight division.
Sergei Kharitonov
I really don’t get people calling Sergei a dark horse in this tourney. Let’s just go over some random facts…
18 wins, 4 losses.
Who were those 4 losses to? Oh just no-bodies like Jeff Monson, Aleks (Fedor’s brother), Overeem and Nog.
Now let’s talk about those 18 wins. 1 decision (over Werdum). 9 (t)KOs and 8 submissions including: a TKO of Semmy, a KO of Murilo Rua, a TKO of Pedro, and a TKO of Overeem.
It’s not that I object to Sergei being called a dark horse because he can’t win, it’s that I object to it because I can’t fathom true MMA fans being all that surprised if he did!
Best Case
Having already beat Arlovski Sergei should now aim for victories over Silva and then a win over Barnett in the finals. This would put Sergei up to 2094 and easily place him top 3 in the world at heavyweight.
Worst Case
A loss in the second round to Silva would put Sergei down to 1925 and likely see him lingering just outside the top 10 at heavyweight.
Alistair Overeem
Alistair enters the tourney with a rating of 2026 that puts him in the top 10 of the heavyweight division currently.
Alistair is a monster, period. 35 wins, 1 decision. He used to fight at light heavyweight and back then the knock on him was that he had very poor cardio.
Since moving up to heavyweight I haven’t heard many question his cardio, but then again, I haven’t seen many last that long against him either.
I would hope most have watched some of his K-1 matches at this point. If you have then you realize that he is never more than a few seconds away from ending the fight.
Best Case
Beating Werdum, Barnett and then Silva would put Overeem up to 2185 and likely make him the #1 ranked heavyweight. I’m going to hope most would be OK with such a ranking.
Worst Case
A first round loss to Werdum would put Overeem down to 1981 and see him hanging just inside the top 10 most likely.
Fabricio Werdum
Werdum enters the tourney rated 2058 which puts him top 5 in the heavyweight division currently.
A perennial candidate for MMA’s Rodney Dangerfield award Werdum gets no respect. The guy holds wins over 3 of the 7 other heavyweights in the tourney. He also lost a split decision to a fourth and lost an ugly, ugly (god there were no winners in this fight) decision to a 5th member of the tourney.
Additionally, Werdum has two wins over Gonzaga (who remains more revered by many /boggle) and Vera.
The upside to Werdum getting no respect is that I make extra bank when he beats someone like Gonzaga or Fedor and “Noooooo onnnneeeee” saw it coming.
Best Case
The path to highest rating for Werdum is mostly a trip down memory lane. First he has to beat Overeem again (he won via Kimura the first time), then he has to beat Barnett, and in the finals he has to defeat Silva again (decision win the first time).
Doing so would elevate Werdum to a 2201 rating, make him first in the heavyweight divisison and make him only the fifth fighter to achieve a rating above 2200.
Worst Case
A loss in the first round to Overeem would move Werdum down to 2003 rating, which should keep him top 10.
Josh Barnett
Probably the biggest, reasonable, knock on Barnett is his volatility. I mean that in the sense of activity and fights. I think most can admit he’s a talented fighter that’s been around for awhile and is capable of ending a fight in a number of ways.
The question becomes…when is he going to have that fight and who’s he going to be fighting? In 2005 he fought once, then in 2006 he fought seven times. 2007? Zero.
2008 was probably Josh’s best recent year with 3 decent wins.
2009 had a single win over Yvel.
Since then Barnett has a couple wins over weaker competition and Fedorgate on his resume.
Regardless of how the tourney plays out it would be really nice to see Barnett with several legitimate fights at HW in the next year or two.
Best Case
Beating Rogers, then Werdum, then Silva would see Barnett throat slit his way into the 2200 club (2209) and #1 rank in the heavyweight division.
Worst Case
A first round loss would drop Barnett all the way down to 2016 and likely leave him fighting for top 10.
Antonio Silva
This guy is a bad matchup for pretty much everyone. I just can’t imagine many of the heavyweights in this tourney thinking about how well they match up stylistically against this guy.
Tons of reach, lots of size, and oh yeah, just a tidge of skill to go with it!
Silva has shown a willingness to exchange a bit recently and I’m curious if he’ll leave himself open and get caught. On the other hand, if he has his cardio right and shows up looking to grind, it’ll be a tough matchup for anyone.
Best Case
A second round win over Sergei and a finals Victory over Josh (after Josh beats Werdum) puts Silva up to 2183 and lands him in first place in the heavyweight division.
Worst Case
A loss in the second round to Sergei would reduce Silva to 2028 and likely leave him in the 6-9 range for heavyweights.
Fear and Hope
My biggest fear regarding the grand prix is a fighter getting caught and having “fans” claim how bad they are or what a can they are. This is the heavyweight division we are talking about and everyone in the grand prix can end a fight quickly.
My hope is that this tourney is only the beginning and that we get more solid matchmaking going forward. Too often there is focus on the #1 contender fight, but people miss how crucial it is to be building up those #3 and #4 fighters to assure strong future matchups. This format and this collection of fighters is great for the heavyweight division and great for MMA overall.
I guess only real question is…Who ya got?