Lots of people are making predictions about the winner of Brock Vs Carwin. I felt they had that pretty well covered, so I thought I’d take a minute to predict the outcome of the eventual fight outcome.
If Brock Wins
First, here are my predictions if Brock wins.
The huggers will…
Claim Brock is #1. Which shouldn’t be a surprise because they were claiming he was #1 (or at least #2) before the win. They will probably contend he is unbeatable and that his reign will be longer than Fedor’s.
The Haters will…
Claim Brock won because of his size. Get upset with his intro, his exit, his post fight commentary, the look on his face during the tale of the tape and with how he won (even if by eye beam 0.2 seconds into the fight).
If Brock loses
On the other hand, if Brock loses we’ll be hearing…
The Huggers…
Will point out he was coming off injury and suddenly be perfectly content to mention that Brock is still a little green.
The Haters…
Will take this as proof that Brock doesn’t belong in the UFC, or MMA in general.
Things to think about
Here are just some talking points that seem to often get ignored by both sides. I don’t feel any one point should decide how people view Brock, but I think all points should be acknowledged in the making of such a decision.
Activity
Brock has basically gone a year without fighting. Some might “defend” that by saying he was injured. However, isn’t an athlete being injured worse than just taking time off for family or even serving a suspension from a competition point of view?
Brock is a new fighter and claimed as a huge draw. Yet after tonight he will have fought six times in three years. That’s about 2/3 the activity of your average fighter.
Activity is a very important aspect of MMA because so much ties into it. Fighters can get injured in training camp, they can break down mentally, they are forced to fight at less than 100%, etc.
Success
Here is what we know about the five fights so far…
One was a can. One was a loss. Two were against non-top 10 opponents.
Is that really the roadmap to being the #1 heavyweight in the world?
I feel there are a lot of people that don’t hate Brock, but can’t fathom how anyone can put him #1. If people called him a strong prospect, a bad matchup for people, a potential future #1, then I don’t think you’d see as much hate. Heck, a win over Carwin and I’ll entertain discussions of Brock being top 10!
Remember, most fighters have loses, but when one loss is 20% of your career…it weighs heavier. The same with the weak first fight.
Uncertainties with Carwin
Where does Carwin really stand? I know this is about Brock, but a lot will use his fight against Carwin as “proof” of where he stands.
In my opinion there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding Carwin. How does he handle possibly being put on his back. How deep into a fight can he go.
Realize that Carwin has a great win streak and a clear ability to end a fight. However, his two biggest and most recent wins come against two of the most bi-polar heavyweights the division currently has. Both Mir and Napao are believed capable of top 5 status and both have had brain fart loses in their careers.
Right now I think Carwin has done enough with what he’s been given to be a legit top 10 fighter, but I know some will be curious to see where he stands after another couple fights against quality competition.
The truth
Brock is still a young fighter despite all the promoting. A fighter’s sixth fight can be very important, but it will not determine his legacy. People constantly want that last fight to mean everything and in MMA it simply doesn’t.
My biggest hope for this fight is that Brock is healthy and win or lose he stays healthy. If Brock could get back in the ring by the end of September and then fight again at year end it would help answer a lot of questions.
The UFC Heavyweight division is still very unclear. Carwin can use a couple more high quality fights, Brock can use a few more fights. You’ve got people like Cain and JDS floating out there. There’s no doubt the division is more interesting than it was a few years ago, but I think it’ll be mid-late 2011 before things shakeout a bit.
Tags: brock lesnar, shane carwin, ufc