MMA Ranking Talk

Sorry it’s *late*

I didn’t mean to make you *wait*

You see…*mate*

I’ve had a lot on my *plate*

There was this *quaint*

cutey named *Kate*.

She took the *bait*,

so we went out and *ate*.

What a *date*!

As I got her back to her front *gate*;

it was starting to feel like…*fate*.

Then she told me about her *RATE*!

Now let’s get one thing *straight*,

this whole thing I blame on *Nate*.

Please, forgive me as I’m still a bit *irate*.

…Oh well, enough *hate*

Let’s just get on with…

The *GREAT* *WEIGHT* *DEBATE*

A lot of people ask about how the site handles weight classes. Currently the site allows a fighter to carry their rating with them between weight classes. Some think this is a major flaw with the system. I personally think weight classes in general are flawed. 8P

What I’m going to attempt to do is you give you look at things from inside the mind of Evil Pooh. Please don’t get lost or break anything.

1) Information Not Available

The first point is probably the most important. Understand that the information in question does *NOT* actually exist. When I receive updates from promoters and commissions there is no weight class information provided. If I see Fighter A Vs Fighter B, I can guess which weight the fight was contested at, but I simply cannot be sure.

Some people act as though I’m ignoring information that is readily available, but that simply isn’t true. The information as people expect it simply doesn’t exist. When discussing this topic further, please keep in mind that what some people are requesting simply does not currently exist.

Obviously for some of the more mainstream events weight class information is available, but even that has flaws…

2) The information isn’t accurate

The way “weight” works in MMA right now is that you have weight classes, and people use the “weight class” to say what “weight” a fighter fights at. For example, if I weigh 180lbs and I weigh-in at 170lbs, then weigh 180lbs the day of the fight…I’m considered 170lbs.

Here are just a couple amusing situations that result from such a practice.

2a)Up or down?

Let’s say we have these three fighters…

Fighter A – 172lbs

Fighter B – 169lbs
Fighter C – 185lbs

Let’s ignore weight classes for a second and ponder which fighter (B or C) Fighter A should be matched up against. If it’s Fighter B they have a 3lb advantage, if it’s Fighter C, then Fighter C has a 13lb advantage.

Hrmmm…So “competition” and “fair” and “balanced” and all that should dictate that Fighter A and Fighter B compete, right? Oh wait, look there are the weight class brackets…they say that Fighter A (a ‘middleweight’) is being a bully if they fight Fighter B (a ‘welterweight’) and that instead Fighter A should pick on someone their own size!!!…Ya know, the guy their own size that is 13lbs heavier than them.

2b) Fight Day Weight

One of the silliest situations I’ve witnessed, and I’m sure it’s happened other times, was this:

Fighter A – 175lbs
Fighter B – 180lbs

They are scheduled to fight at 170lbs.

Fighter B cuts to 170 and “makes weight”. Fighter A oversleeps or something and only gets down to 172.5. Fighter A then had to give up part of their purse and the “official” results show that Fighter A had a weight advantage over Fighter B. Of course, during the actual fight (ya know, when it actually mattered!) Fighter A was clearly out weighed.

In a case like this the “offical” results would show A as being heavier, they’d show the fight as not at “170″ and a host of other flaws.

At this point it’s clear that even when the information does exist, it can be quite flawed.

3)How much of a weight difference is needed to make a difference?

One of the most confusing things to me (I’m not very smart) about weight classes is how they are currently divided up.

Going from 135lbs to 145lbs is a 10lb difference, this gives a new weight class

Going from 145lbs to 155lbs is a 10lb difference, Ok so 10lbs matters…

Going from 155lbs to 170lbs is a 15lb difference, ok so the first 10 don’t matter here, but the next 5 do

Going from 170lbs to 185lbs is a 15lb difference, 10lbs again doesn’t matter, so 15 is our lucky number now it seems

Going from 185lbs to 205lbs is a 20lb difference, Uhhh ok so more than double 10lbs to make a difference, ok the guys are a bit heavier, I guess? Maybe??

Going from 205lbs to 265lbs is a 60lb difference, ok now I’m just lost~!!!

So it’s “ok” for someone who’s 210lbs to fight someone who’s 265lbs, but *NOT* ok for them to fight someone who’s 205 lbs?

Isn’t 210 minus 205 just FIVE POUNDS~!?!?! (checks on his claws) yeah, five pounds. Going from 140 to 145 is 5 pounds and it doesn’t matter way down there when 5lbs is over 3% of someone’s total body weight. Yet somehow, up at 210 just over 2% of a body weight difference is completely unacceptable.

In a head to head sport, shouldn’t the *ACTUAL* weight of the fighters *AT THE TIME OF THE FIGHT* be the comparison that really matters? Sadly, we don’t get the actual weight of the fighters, and we have some fights that are viewed as “wrong” simply because of predetermined brackets.

Evil interlude

Over my lifetime I’ve fluxuated between a few weight classes: Heavyweight, super heavyweight, super-duper heavyweight, ‘get-two-scales this one only goes up to 300lbs’-weight, etc. Despite all that weight gain I’ve never experienced any major performance gains from a few pounds either way. Going from 205 to 207 didn’t increase my bench by 40lbs and my vertical jump by 8inches. When I went from 185 to 187 it wasn’t because my arms grew an inch longer.

What makes these brackets so magical and significant? Why is it that adherence to these brackets is more important than the *ACTUAL WEIGHT* of the competitors?! How can it be OK for someone to weigh 170 and fight someone who weights 185 and “cut” the day before, but not OK for the 170lb person to fight someone who is 172? Why are people ok with a 50 plus pound weight difference in some cases, but not ok with a 5 or 10 pound difference in others?

4)Weight, the Whole Weight, and nothing but the Weight~!!!

Almost as confusing to me as the “that 5lbs matters, that 3lbs doesn’t, that 10lbs does, those 10lbs don’t” is this almost automatic belief that weight is the be-all-end-all stat by which to determine a competitive advantage.

Make no mistake about it, if two fighters have equal:

- Height
- Reach
- Uhh..I don’t know…~S~K~I~L~L~~!!

Then weight can definitely come into play. Sadly, what I often see are many other competitive advantages completely overlooked because of “weight”.

If I’m going into a match against a known striker and my game plan is to strike I can assure you I’d give up 5lbs of weight for an extra inch reach advantage. I’d probably do that up to about 20lbs, or 4 inches of reach advantage…after that I’d look silly standing with my arms at my side. *shrugs*

The exercise here is to think about how big a factor weight is across a wide range of MMA fights…you know MMA a sport with a wide range of backgrounds/skill sets/fight outcomes. Just consider these situations…

4a)Striking matchup

Fighter A – 200lbs 84inch reach
Fighter B – 205lbs 80inches reach

These two fighters are about to engage in a pure striking match. Assume most other things are reasonably even do you believe that the possible 5lbs more strength is a bigger advantage to fighter B than the 4inches of reach is to Fighter A?

4b)Body Mass

Fighter A – Roy Nelson (Sorry Roy)
Fighter B – Sok

Somehow people talk as though every fighter has the exact same body mass. If Fighter A is 200lbs and Fighter B is 200lbs, they have the exact same weight, so they have the same body mass, the same body fat%, the same lean muscle, the same muscle distribution, the same bone density, etc.

Anyone that’s every seen more than 2 people of the same weight in their lives knows that isn’t the case. Some have higher body fat (Sorry again Roy), some are Taller, some have bigger legs, some have a lot of hair (Clay could make 145 if he was bald!!), etc.

Again, the point here isn’t to talk in absolutes, but to understand what a huge variance already exists within the current framework. What it comes down to is aren’t there times when even at the same weight one fighter still has an advantage. Miguel Torres has a lot of height for his weight class. Anderson has quite the reach for 185. Fedor…sorry gotta chalk that one up to the third category from above.

5) Working hard for an asskicking

How many fighters do you see change weights so they can lose? I’m being serious here, how many fighters do you see change weight with the sole intent of performing worse? How many times have you seen interviews where a fighter goes:

“I was feeling great at 185, but going up to 205 enables me to get taken down more because my sprawl is worse. Besides, chicks dig the love handles!”?

or

“I figured since I got knocked out a lot at 205 I’d move up to heavyweight so I could get knocked out just a bit faster!” John “zulu’d” Doe

Ever?

Here’s what I usually see,

“Man, those guys at 185 were *HUGE* 170 is a better fit for me”.

“Getting down to 205 was too much of a cut, I was too tired and just working against my body, heavyweight is a much better place for me”.

“155 is where I should be”

The point here is that almost never does a fighter cut or gain weight in order to do worse. In fact, I think it’s fairly safe to say that the decision to change weight classes is often dictated by a desire to perform even better.

This leads to the question of…if a Fighter is 1800 rated at one weight class, what are the odds they change weights just to drop to being 1700 rated? Doesn’t it seem more likely that a fighter changes weights because they believe they will perform *BETTER* overall?

6) Everything changed?

This ties in a bit with point 4, but some people act as though the difference between 185 and 170 is night and day. When a fighter moves from 185 to 170 do they completely forget takedown defense and have to relearn it? When someone goes from 185 to 205 do they have to completely relearn their entire ground game? Are sprawls at 155 categorically different than they are at 145?

Think about the MLB playoffs. How many times do you see a “starting” pitcher come out of the bullpen during crucial series? Obviously there is a difference between “starting” and “closing”. However, there’s also a lot in common.

Think about if you’ve been scounting a great right fielder, but your farm system needs left fielders. It’s *NOT* the same, but doesn’t a *LOT* of it transition? Speed, reaction, dedication, drive, heart, etc?

What I’m getting at here is that although there are differences between 155 and 170 or 205 and 185, it isn’t a whole new ballgame. Many of the fighter’s skills transition with them.

7) Past more important than recent

At some point in the future I’ll address the “current vs alltime” issue, but what it comes down to is some people think too much emphasis is placed on older fights and not enough emphasis is placed on more recent fights. Where this gets interesting is when looking at weight classes.

Some people think looking at Fighter A’s fights at 205 from years ago is more relevant to his 205 standing than his recent fights at 185. Some people want to focus on Fighter B’s wins at lightweight years ago, and ignore his more recent losses at welterweight.

Lets go back to baseball for a minute. Lets say you now need a right fielder. You’ve got Baller A that has been a DH for 4 years, and a first baseman for a year before that, but five years ago was a solid right fielder.

Baller B won a gold glove in left field last year and only has two errors so far this year.

Who do you throw into right field?

Another sport, lets take a look at the NFL. Every year you see defensive linemen drafted to play in a scheme they’ve never played under. There are big differences between a 4-3 and a 3-4. Especially depending on the offensive formation and the team you are going against. Why on earth would someone draft a “great” nosetackle they don’t need instead of a “solid” defensive tackle?

One possibility is that they see how many of the skills transition. Maybe see the drive, the determination, the willingness to learn, etc.

Remember, we are *NOT* talking perfect here. We are talking about reasonable. Some people seem to be of the opinion that going from 170 to 185 resets everything, all I’m saying is that *SOME* of it transitions.

8) Have to start somewhere

All fighters start off at 1500. Then they fight some and land wherever they land. Always keep in mind that the system is very self-correcting. If a fighter is “too high” they will drop, and drop quickly. If a fighter is too low, they will rise quickly. Both assuming proper matchmaking. 8)

Let’s actually take a look at a few big name fighters that have hoped weight. Basically I’m just thinking of examples and then opening up their fighter page…let’s see what we find…

Randy Couture

One of the most well known weight hoppers. Following 2 losses at heavyweight (both against higher rated fighters) Randy moved down to Light heavyweight. Instead of setting him to 1500, we kept his ranking and he fought Chuck. He was still an underdog (as he was everywhere), but this way it didn’t appear as though Chuck was fighting a basically 0-0 fighter. Randy won and then fought Tito. He was slightly lower ranked than Tito, but it was a reasonable matchup and Randy won.

The two Vitor fights are skewed because of the cut. (another case where I can’t change it on the site, but I do wonder about the decision *shrugs*)

Following the Vitor fights Randy then lost to Chuck, Beat Mike and Lost to Chuck. All three of which fit from a “rating” perspective.

Randy then moved back up to heavyweight where he was an underdog against Tim (again, not just on the site), and he won. Following that win, he beat Gonzaga, whom he was higher rated then at the time. He then got matched up against Brock. (Business > sport)

Overall though, not bad at all. Chuck lost, but it wasn’t against a 1500 rated guy. When Timmy fought Randy it was 2007, that’s 5(ish) years after Randy’s last fight at heavyweight. Just like the example above. Do people honestly think 5+ year old information is more accurate than 5+ years of recent competition and performance? Simply because of a few pounds?

Mike Swick

Mike was tearing up the middleweight division and then ran into Yushin Okami (a fighter higher rated than him). Following the loss Swick dropped to welterweight and his first fight was against Josh Burkman. Transferring his rating directly from middleweight he had a 3rating point advantage…and he won (by majority decision).

In his fights since he has beaten: Marcus Davis, Jonathan Goulet, and Ben Saunders. All of which are fighters he was higher rated than.

Michael Bisping

Following a loss to Rashad Evans…who was higher rated than him at the time. (Notice all the fighters that change weight after a loss…must be because they want to lose more *shrugs*).

Anyway, following the loss Bisping beat “chainsaw” (whom he was higher rated than), Jason Day (who he was 3 whole rating points lower than), Chris Leben (who he was higher rated than), and then loss to Hendo (who he was lower rated than).

Enough examples

I could literally do this all day. Some fighters will have done well, some will have continued to flounder, but the truth is the majority of fighters fit the pattern outlined above. That pattern is that their current rating at the time of the weight class swap is more accurate than restarting them back at 1500.

Other options?

Some might say that instead of starting them back at 1500, why not just deduct a small percentage. The obvious questions then become, “how much”, and “why”? Remember, most fighters change weight classes to perform better, the thought of taking even 10% of their rating “just in case” doesn’t make much sense.

Additionally, why penalize/reward a fighter for what might happen, when you will be penalizing/rewarding based upon what actually does happen. Think about it like this:

If a fighter changes weights and loses their next fight their rating will go down. If we had forced their rating lower to start with, they’d lose less for the fight, but still be lower.

If a fighter changes weights and wins their next fight their rating will go up. If we’d lower their rating already, then they’ll gain even more because they were “lower” rated going into the fight.

The system will self correct quite well, so the question becomes, “Why guess at how to adjust someone’s rating when simply having them fight will properly adjust it for us”?

Basically what we need are two things:

- A logical and compelling reason to adjust ratings outside the standard flow of the system
- A fair and mathematically sound way to make such an adjustment.

Much like the weight information itself neither of these things seem to exist. Lots will speculate that a fighter is “worse” when they change weight classes, but that is both counter intuitive and unsupported by data. At the same time, naturally boosting Roy Nelson (honestly, last time man) just because he loses some weight also seems a silly thing to do.

Since we have a system in place that already accurately adjusts fighters based upon outcome, why would we want to try tinkering with it based upon non-outcome based factors?

And that’s how we got here

Basically a combination of the above and a few other things I edited out are why we stand where we stand. If I needed to try to condense the above rant down it’d be very hard, but probably along the lines of:

- I like to *rhyme*…it’s just something I enjoy doing in my spare *time*…even when I don’t get paid a *dime*…
- Weight classes are highly flawed structures
- Accurate weight information does not exist
- Roy Nelson is fat (Guess I was wrong)
- Attempts to artificially adjust a system that has built in self correction seems foolish and wastrel

As always I’m not opposed to changing anything, but at this point it would require:

- Accurate weight information
- Compelling reason(s) to make the change
- A mathematically sound change to make

Currently, I have none of the three. What I do have is a plan for how to handle weight classes in the event I found myself in charge of sanctioning MMA in a post apocalyptic world I had been forced to repopulate after a “smart” bomb left only me and the hot redheads alive. It will probably never come to that though. 8(

Tags: roy nelson, site, system, weight

This entry was posted on Saturday, August 22nd, 2009 at 10:52 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.