MMA Ranking Talk

Strength of Schedule in MMA seems to be a topic of increasing popularity. By far the biggest problem I see when MMA fans try to discuss Strength of Schedule though is that the people aren’t all talking about the same stat. I’ve discussed Strength of Schedule for MMA fighters before, but feel each approach should get its own write-up.

How to calculate Strength of Schedule

Accurately calculating the Strength of Schedule for MMA fighters requires clearly defining what it is you are looking for. I’m a strong believe that many times it is more about the “right stat for you” than the “right stat” in general. While some prefer a pure strength of schedule that is simply calculated by taking the average rating of an MMA fighter’s opponents, others prefer a different approach. For those that prefer the pure calculation please check out MMA Fighters Ranked by Strength of Schedule.

The calculation for strength of schedule used in this rant is what I refer to as the “big game hunter” approach. What we are looking at with this approach is who has won the biggest fights. This approach doesn’t focus on average quality of opposition, but rather on average quality of an MMA fighter’s biggest wins. In order to provide a broader picture I’ll be looking at the BGHSoS(Big Game Hunter Strength of Schedule) at various win totals for MMA fighters.

MMA Strength of Schedule - One Big One

Rank	Name	Rating
1	Quinton Jackson	2172
2	Frank Mir	2160
3	Fedor Emelianenko	2147
4	Forrest Griffin	2127
5	Gabriel Gonzaga	2127
6	Josh Barnett	2126
7	Sergey Golyaev	2123
8	Georges St. Pierre	2122
9	Mark Hunt	2120
10	Joachim Hansen	2110
11	Lyoto Machida	2108
12	Matt Serra	2102
13	Keith Jardine	2101
14	Hayato Sakurai	2098
15	Mirko Filipovic	2096
16	Chael Sonnen	2095
17	Brian Bowles	2088
18	Marcus Aurelio	2085
19	B.J. Penn	2079
20	Jose Aldo	2070
21	Anderson Silva	2070
22	Mark Coleman	2065
23	Mike Thomas Brown	2063
24	Shinya Aoki	2058
25	Randy Couture	2058

Since we are looking at a fence of a single MMA win, that means our list above basically tells us who had the single biggest win. Here are some random things I found interesting…

Rampage Jackson

Rampage sits at first because of his victory over Chuck Liddell. Although the “Iceman” seems to get a lot of hate these days, it’s hard to deny just how impressive his career was. On the amusing side of things it is interesting to note that Rampage beat Chuck at a time that snapped a seven fight win streak. That win streak is the same streak Chuck started after Rampage beat him about three and a half years earlier. Had rampage lost that first fight, this win over Chuck would have been even more impressive.

Big Nog

Don’t bother looking back over the list…Big Nog isn’t on it. What is interesting though is what a big role he played in it. Big Nog is responsible for Mir at #2, Fedor at #3, and Josh Barnett at #6. I honestly think more than anyone else Nog suffers from Fedor existing. Yes, the losses physically hurt (or should have, you never know with Nog), but Nog is just *THAT* damn good. He is the #2 guy that no one would question as #1 if not for #1 existing. His career is insane, his “style” is inspiring and his impact on MMA is undeniable.

One Hit Wonders

Fighters like Matt Serra (#12), Keith Jardine (#13), Brian Bowles (#17), and Marcus Aurelio (#18) show up on the list due to a single huge win in their careers, but sadly fall off the list once we extend the strength of schedule criteria out to several wins.

Anderson Silva

An MMA fighter that was originally a bit lower than I expected (#21) was Anderson. Once I took a look back at his career though I realized that although MMA fighters like Rich Franklin are amazing wins (and amazing fighters in their own right) they were never quite at the level that say Big Nog was. Don’t worry though, Anderson has a *LOT* of high quality wins and you’ll see his name move up the list soon.

MMA Strength of Schedule - Rematches FTW!

Rank	Name	Rating
1	Fedor Emelianenko	2125.5
2	Georges St. Pierre	2117
3	Quinton Jackson	2104
4	Forrest Griffin	2101
5	Lyoto Machida	2093
6	Mark Hunt	2091.5
7	Mirko Filipovic	2081
8	Chael Sonnen	2079
9	Frank Mir	2077.5
10	B.J. Penn	2065
11	Anderson Silva	2061
12	Joachim Hansen	2056.5
13	Hayato Sakurai	2041.5
14	Shinya Aoki	2040
15	Mike Thomas Brown	2038
16	Randy Couture	2038
17	Mark Coleman	2035
18	Rashad Evans	2034.5
19	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	2031.5
20	Thiago Alves	2026.5
21	Jake Shields	2023.5
22	Gabriel Gonzaga	2023
23	Dan Henderson	2023
24	Kazuo Misaki	2022.5
25	Josh Barnett	2020.5

Fedor

Not one, but *TWO* Nogs! Seriously, beating Nog once was enough to get two people into the top 5 on the single win Strength of Schedule list and accounted for three of the top 10. Beating him twice is…crazy. (insert “Russian” joke here if you feel it necessary)

Movers and Shakers

The win over CroCop was huge, but after that there is a big drop off for Gonzaga. Say “Hi” to him at #22 above because it’s the last you’ll see of him in this rant. Perhaps if we re-do this rant in another year he will have gotten another couple of big wins (Will I even still be ranting in a year?).

Also dropping down some is Mir (from #2 to #9). While moving up is Anderson (going from #21 to #11).

MMA Strength of Schedule - Triology!

Rank	Name	Rating
1	Georges St. Pierre	2109.33
2	Fedor Emelianenko	2100.67
3	Mirko Filipovic	2070.33
4	Quinton Jackson	2064.67
5	Lyoto Machida	2059.67
6	B.J. Penn	2058.67
7	Anderson Silva	2043
8	Forrest Griffin	2041.33
9	Chael Sonnen	2025.33
10	Joachim Hansen	2025
11	Shinya Aoki	2024.33
12	Rashad Evans	2016
13	Dan Henderson	2012
14	Randy Couture	2012
15	Thiago Alves	2011.67
16	Chuck Liddell	2002.67
17	Mauricio Rua	2000.67
18	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	1995.33
19	Vitor Belfort	1992
20	Frank Mir	1990
21	Jake Shields	1989.33
22	Mike Thomas Brown	1987.67
23	Mark Coleman	1983.67
24	Josh Barnett	1983
25	Mark Hunt	1979

The Iceman Cometh

It might seem odd, but Chuck finally premiers on the all time strength of schedule ranking list (Big Game Hunter style!) at #16. This is due to his solid wins over solid competition and the fact that several of the “one hit wonders” have now fallen off the list. It may have taken Chuck until “three” to get here, but now he’s here to stay.

Movers and Shakers

Fedor and GSP flip flop at the top of the list. Forrest falls outside the top 5, but still stays high (#8) due to the big wins over Rampage and Shogun. Frank Mir falls to #20, and will be off the remainder of the Strength of Schedule lists that follow. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Barnett, he dropped from #6 to #25, but now appears to be going back up the list (now at #24).

MMA Strength of Schedule - Jimmie Johnson Style

Rank	Name	Rating
1	Georges St. Pierre	2101
2	Fedor Emelianenko	2087.75
3	Mirko Filipovic	2051
4	Lyoto Machida	2041.5
5	Quinton Jackson	2040.75
6	B.J. Penn	2036.75
7	Anderson Silva	2031.5
8	Shinya Aoki	2006.5
9	Dan Henderson	1996.75
10	Mauricio Rua	1995
11	Chael Sonnen	1991
12	Rashad Evans	1990.25
13	Chuck Liddell	1987.75
14	Randy Couture	1984.5
15	Forrest Griffin	1983
16	Joachim Hansen	1980.25
17	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	1976.5
18	Thiago Alves	1968
19	Wanderlei Silva	1967.25
20	Vitor Belfort	1966.5
21	Jake Shields	1966.25
22	Renato Sobral	1964
23	Josh Barnett	1963.75
24	Josh Koscheck	1952.5
25	Rich Franklin	1951

Josh Koscheck

Making his only appearance on any of the strength of schedule lists for this rant is Josh Koscheck at #24. One reason this is interesting is because using a career wide, average strength of opposition (including wins and losses) approach to strength of schedule we see Josh would be #5. This shows how the different approaches can greatly influence the results. Another reason it is interesting is because of how Josh is perceived. It seems like he has to constantly prove he is a top fighter at welterweight and somehow peoples’ dislike of him overshadows his achievements.

Not a whole lot of shaking going on

The top seven spots remain unchanged except for Lyoto and Rampage swapping spots four and five.

MMA Strength of Schedule - Count the biggest wins on one hand

Rank	Name	Rating
1	Georges St. Pierre	2086.6
2	Fedor Emelianenko	2067.4
3	Lyoto Machida	2026.8
4	Anderson Silva	2023.8
5	Quinton Jackson	2023.2
6	Mirko Filipovic	2019.8
7	B.J. Penn	2005.6
8	Shinya Aoki	1994
9	Mauricio Rua	1987.6
10	Chuck Liddell	1978.6
11	Dan Henderson	1974.8
12	Randy Couture	1967.8
13	Rashad Evans	1965
14	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	1961.4
15	Chael Sonnen	1954.6
16	Wanderlei Silva	1954.2
17	Jake Shields	1952.2
18	Josh Barnett	1945.6
19	Renato Sobral	1941.8
20	Joachim Hansen	1941.2
21	Thiago Alves	1940.4
22	Nathan Marquardt	1938.4
23	Vitor Belfort	1938.2
24	Rich Franklin	1937.4
25	Forrest Griffin	1936.2

The underrated

Several names on the list might seem out of place to some MMA fans. Fighters like Sonnen (#15), Shields (#17), Sobral (#19), and Hansen (#20) seem to get dissed an inappropriate amount. We are at five fights on our Big Game Hunter Strength of Schedule and these guys are on the list while a lot of bigger name fighters dropped off a couple wins ago.

MMA Strength of Schedule - Perfect 10

Rank	Name	Rating
1	Georges St. Pierre	2006
2	Fedor Emelianenko	1995.1
3	Anderson Silva	1995.1
4	Quinton Jackson	1949.2
5	Shinya Aoki	1941.8
6	Chuck Liddell	1930.5
7	Lyoto Machida	1921.9
8	Mirko Filipovic	1921.3
9	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	1919.2
10	Mauricio Rua	1915.4
11	Dan Henderson	1911.1
12	Randy Couture	1910.8
13	B.J. Penn	1902.1
14	Wanderlei Silva	1897.6
15	Josh Barnett	1897.4
16	Rich Franklin	1882.4
17	Jake Shields	1874.7
18	Nathan Marquardt	1874.1
19	Takanori Gomi	1872.8
20	Chael Sonnen	1869
21	Andrei Arlovski	1867.2
22	Jon Fitch	1862.4
23	Thiago Alves	1862
24	Matt Hughes	1860.7
25	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	1858.6

Your browser and eyes are likely fine

If the above table looks different than the last few, it’s OK. If the above table looks the same then something is likely wrong with your browser and/or your eyes.

Shinya Aoki

Jumping up to 10 wins (from 5) we see Shinya Aoki climb to the #5 slot. Shinya is so under appreciated it actually goes negative and becomes hate for some people. From talking with most people it seems that his appearance and lack of exposure are two of the biggest problems. Doesn’t it seem kind of strange that a lack of recognition and appearance would both be a problem at the same time?

In terms of recognition it stems not only from people not “getting” Aoki, but them not getting his opponents. Fighters like Hellboy (see above), Shaolin, Alvarez, JZ and others are just scary good fighters. Sadly, many haven’t seen the people Aoki has beaten fight, so it’s hard to give him the credit he deserves.

The issues with appearance stem from Aoki not “looking” like a fighter. He’s rather small looking, he wears flashy pants, and many don’t think he “looks” like he should win. Many of these people are the ones that think Fedor is out of shape, that think Brock is already the greatest HW of all time and that Roy Nelson was the underdog against Schaub.

As sad as it might sound (or as hard as it might be to believe) if Aoki looked a bit different and people had a broader MMA knowledge base then he would show up “p4p” talks and “LW GOAT” talks a *LOT* more often.

MMA Strength of Schedule - Make it an even 15

Rank	Name	Rating
1	Anderson Silva	1937.33
2	Fedor Emelianenko	1935.47
3	Georges St. Pierre	1912
4	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	1887.47
5	Chuck Liddell	1885.47
6	Quinton Jackson	1869.53
7	Mirko Filipovic	1867.27
8	Shinya Aoki	1866.53
9	Dan Henderson	1864.93
10	Josh Barnett	1864.53
11	Randy Couture	1836.13
12	Wanderlei Silva	1836.07
13	Takanori Gomi	1834.67
14	Nathan Marquardt	1832.07
15	Mauricio Rua	1827.8
16	Matt Hughes	1823
17	Rich Franklin	1815.47
18	Chael Sonnen	1813.67
19	Lyoto Machida	1811.13
20	Renato Sobral	1808.4
21	Jake Shields	1799.07
22	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	1792.47
23	Jon Fitch	1789.53
24	Hayato Sakurai	1786.13
25	Tim Sylvia	1773.07

Flip Flop at the Top

Here after 15 wins we see Anderson take over the top spot (Edging out Fedor whom he was tied with after 10). GSP falls to third. Chuck moves back up into the top 5 (from #6 after 10 MMA wins) and Big Nog jumps all the way to #4 (from #9 after 10 MMA wins) to round out the top 5.

Parting Reminder

Remember that what we are looking at here is average “big” wins at specific limits. Like most stats there are benefits and downsides to using this approach to Strength of Schedule for MMA. Some may find it quite interesting and others may ignore it entirely. Where I think this can be interesting is when people try to use a “weaker” fight as a way to ignore harder fights.

It seems as though some people would rather see a fighter have 2 “big” wins (and possibly a loss), than see a fighter with 3 “big” wins and a couple weaker wins. For some people the wins over “weaker” fighters somehow diminish the wins over stronger opponents.

What about you? Are you a “big game hunter” kind of person, or do you tend to prefer the overall pure Strength of Schedule that factors in loses as well as wins for MMA fighters?

Tags: math, mma rankings, strength of schedule

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 8th, 2009 at 5:53 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.