There is a situation brewing that I think is semi-interesting (slash) semi-retarded. I’m going to layout what I know, speculate on what I suspect, and then hopefully have someone set me straight…
Big Nog Vs Cain
A possible fight I keep hearing about is Cain Vs Big Nog. The fight intrigues me and although I’d prefer to see Cain get one more win first (Mir? Gonzaga? JDS?) I understand it. Given all the recent fight cancellations and Nog’s staph issues I probably won’t be sure of the fight until two weeks after it happens.
What I’d like to do is a play a big ole game of MMA Ranking What If assuming this fight actually does happen around February of 2010.
MMA Rankings If Big Nog Wins
I’m pondering about if Big Nog wins first because “big” comes before “Cain” alphabetically (technically so does ‘Antonio’).
The obvious question is “Where does Big Nog Rank among MMA heavyweights if he wins”. My biggest fear is that some will still put him below Brock Lesnar. Obviously that won’t happen on this site, but I’m talking in general. Some people seem to have Brock spot welded in at number two (some have him #1 /boggle) and I wonder if Big Nog beating Cain would be enough to sway their opinion.
Recent Fights
The only real case that can be made for Brock being ahead of Nog ranking wise in MMA is recent fights. Understand that Brock only has 5 fights (and only 4 wins). Nog on the other hand has been around the sport for ten years and has over 30 wins (and only five loses).
Where things get interesting though is if we look at who each fighter has beaten recently (or ever in the case of Brock).
Frank Mir
Brock’s last fight was against Frank Mir, and he won. However, just a couple years ago Brock also lost to Frank Mir. Despite being 1-1 against Mir, Brock still edges out Nog who’s 0-1 against Mir.
Randy Couture
Prior to beating Frank Mir in a rematch, Brock beat Randy Couture. Coincidentally enough, Big Nog beat Randy in his last fight.
Heath Herring
In order to “earn” his UFC heavyweight title shot, Brock beat Heath Herring. This is interesting because Big Nog had already beaten Heath one year earlier.
Everyone else
Ok, so “everyone else” is a bit misleading because the only other win (and fight) remaining for Brock was about two and a half years ago against someone who was 3-5 at the time.
Does Nog move ahead of Brock win a win over Cain?
Do keep in mind that we are being incredibly gracious to Brock in the above comparisons. If we go back even to 2006 for Nog we see 1-1 against Barnett and a win over Werdum. Ignoring that though, you have to ask yourself if a single win over Mir recently means more than a win over Sylvia and a win over Cain (in this hypothetical situation).
As a potential follow-up (that I sadly know is needed for some), if Nog beating Cain doesn’t put him ahead of Lesnar, then would a follow-up win against Mir put him ahead of Lesnar? At that point both would be 1-1 against Mir, both would have beaten Couture and Herring. Would the wins over Sylvia and Cain then be enough to offset Min Soo Kim? Oh yeah, Min Soo Kim and 8(ish) years of being one of the very best heavyweights (and overall MMA fighters) in the world. If you still answer “no”, please explain.
MMA Rankings if Cain wins
Now we move onto the letter “C” and ponder how things will look if Cain should win. Things are a bit murkier because of the lack of direct comparisons. There is still plenty of data to look at though.
Activity
Assuming a fight in February (and Brock likely out until the middle of 2010) we see:
Cain – 8 fights in about 3.5 years. That is a bit skewed because after 2 fights in 2006 Cain didn’t fight at all in 2007. Still we’d expect around 10(ish) fights during that time frame so Cain has an activity level of about 80%.
Brock – Assuming Brock doesn’t fight again until 2010-06-02 that gives him 5 fights in 3 years. We’d expect 9(ish) during that time, so that gives Brock an activity percentage of abot 55%. If Brock did have a fight that early (seems unlikely at this point) that would be 6 fights in 3 years, or about 66% activity level.
Either way, activity has to go to Cain even holding the year off against him.
Strength of Schedule
Brock has a sick Strength of Schedule for being so early into his career. What gets overlooked is that Cain hasn’t had it super easy. Right now it stands at:
Brock – 1820 SoS
Cain – 1763 SoS
Remember that we are talking about a post-nog fight situation here though. Following the Nog fight Cain’s SoS would increase to 1805(ish). The gap wasn’t huge to begin with and the potential fight against Nog just bridges the gap even more.
Following a potential fight with Nog, Brock would still have an advantage in SoS, but certainly not as large as some might expect.
Results
As silly as it may sound, I have to point this out:
Brock – 4 wins, 1 loss
Cain (potenitally) – 8 wins, 0 losses
Does Cain move ahead of Brock if he wins?
This question is even more interesting because I think it raises additional questions about Brock being as high as #2. A win over Nog (though awesome) would likely not make Cain the #2 heavyweight. I think most would put him in the 3-6 range, but not likely #2 (remember, some don’t have Nog #2 right now).
Perhaps one of the implied questions here is if Brock would drop some in the rankings. Right now he sits as high as #2, but he last fought in July. Sources seem to indicate he “might” return in the middle of 2010, but that’s not certain. Given the large gap of inactivity and the potential for outcomes such as Cain beating Nog (or vice versa), does Brock fall from #2, if you have him that high already?
Let me again pose a potential follow-up (to those where necessary), if Cain is still ranked lower than Brock with an additional win over Nog (giving him twice as many wins without any loses, and a very comparable SoS), what else does he need to do to pass Brock in the rankings?
Easy Rant Reply format
1) Where does Nog “rank” with a potential win over Cain?
2) Where does Cain “rank” with a potential win over Big Nog?
3) Does Lesnar’s ranking shift at all? (would help to know where you have him already)
Tags: big nog, brock lesnar, cain, mma rankings, ufc