MMA Ranking Myth - Need big wins
Recently I’ve noticed a growing trend of people trying to claim someone can’t be “top 10″ because they haven’t beaten “top 10″ people. As a whole the term “top 10″ is incredibly flawed, but I’m going to try to navigate it as best I can during this rant while I explore this perception that some MMA fans have.
How it’s gonna be
Although I’m not opposed to such a “ranking system” it seems as though it is not universally applied. Let’s take a handful of fighters from various weight classes and look at where they “rank” and then look at their MMA fight history in more detail. The format I’m going to use is very simple, I’m going to pick a fighter, list their MMA ranking(ish), and explore their “top 10″ wins.
Before starting I want to emphasize my respect for all the fighters listed below. I know some might read parts of what follows as fighter bashing, but that is very far from the truth. My intention isn’t to down play a fighter’s history, but rather to show that some fight histories are very impressive even without a slew of “top 10″ wins.
Jon Fitch
Jon Fitch has been ranked #2 or #3 in the welterweight division for awhile now. Going on the above assumption it’d be reasonable to assume he’d beaten some #2 or #3 ranked fighter(s), right? Well, that’s just not true.
Fitch’s “biggest” MMA win?
I mentioned it recently, but many would likely list Thiago Alves as Jon Fitch’s “biggest” win. At the time of the fight though, neither was “top 3″. In recent years they’ve both been number 2 or 3, but over three years ago when they fought neither fighter was getting a title shot for winning the fight.
With Alves out of the way it’s likely that Diego is actually Fitch’s “biggest” win. This can be a little fuzzy though because despite having an almost 2k rating at the time of the fight, Diego had just lost to Koscheck. Even with the loss though Diego was still a “top 10″ fighter on various MMA ranking lists.
Everyone else
Fitch’s most recent victory was over Paulo Thiago. That win isn’t really relevant to this discussion though because Fitch had been considered #2 - #3 (ish) even before the fight. I mention it because it’s a good win for him and I want it clear that this isn’t about saying Fitch isn’t a top welterweight. Rather it’s about shining a light on how he got there.
With Alves explained, Diego granted, and Thiago noted…who’s left? Here are some names…
Gono…Wilson…Larson
Solid names, no doubt! Top 10? hrmmmm…Maybe Gono at one point, maybe Larson peaking in and out at times, but overall? Not really.
Moving past those three we see fighters like:
Luigi Fioravanti, and Josh Burkman
Again, solid fighters, they have a name, they are pro’s, but….top 10?
The point
The point I’m trying to make here is that the “best” fighter Jon Fitch has faced is GSP and he lost to him (badly). Jon Fitch is almost universally considered top 3, but where is the list of even “top 5″ guys he beat to get there? (maybe Diego…Maybe??) Fitch has solid wins on his record (quite a few) and I think it’s clear that he got his ranking not because of three or four “big” wins, but due to a lot of “solid” wins.
Dan Hardy
Staying with the welterweights for a bit (next one too!) we’ll ponder Dan Hardy. “The Outlaw” now finds himself in the “top 5″ on various lists. Since this is only the second person on the list I’m again going to point out that my intention here isn’t to say Dan Hardy shouldn’t be #4(ish), but rather to explore how they got there.
Dan Hardy’s “biggest” MMA Win?
Unlike Fitch I think most can agree that Dan Hardy’s biggest MMA win was his last fight. In his last fight he beat Mike Swick. This win not only moved Hardy up the MMA rankings, but it seems to have secured him a title shot against GSP.
Everyone Else
With Swick accounted for, here are some of the other “big names” that Hardy has beaten…
Gono (yeah, that one), Marcus Davis
To me the trend seems to continue. Gono was top 10(ish) at points, but certainly debated. Davis flirted with top 10, but he certainly wasn’t a staple and he had lost to Mike Swick a year before the Hardy fight.
More of the same?
Dan Hardy is 23-6 (1 NC) and sitting at #4(ish) on most ranking sites, but who are his “Big” wins. Swick was certainly top 10…mmmaaayyyyybbbbbeeee “top 5″, but that’s one fight and Hardy was in the “top 10″ on some MMA ranking lists even before that fight. MMA fighters like Gono and Davis are “solid” wins, but neither is likely to get you a title shot.
Mike Swick
Since we’ve mentioned him a few times, hereeeeeeeee’ssss Mike. Mike sits on most top 10 MMA ranking lists and was top 5 on several prior to the Hardy loss mentioned above.
Mike Swick’s “biggest” MMA win?
Looking over the list I think many would say Marcus Davis. Despite Davis having lost two in a row, it’s important to remember that heading into the fight with Swick he had won 11 fights in a row. Although I won’t give Davis his own section (I should), it’s important to note that his win streak includes fighters like Shonie Carter, Pete Spratt and Paul Taylor. Yes they are names, but I don’t expect a lot of hate mail from failing to call them “top 10″.
Everyone Else
Ok, so Davis is out of the way that leaves us with…
The crow? David had just lost to Franklin (and followed his loss against Swick with a loss to Villasenor), so he “might” have still been top 10 on some MMA Ranking lists (though barely). This fight also happened at middleweight, so what (if any) impact this had on Swick will vary from list to list and person to person.
After the Crow?
Joe Riggs, Josh Burkman, etc.
Some “solid” fighters, some named fighters, some guys you should not take lightly, but “top 10″? Riggs was in and out of the top 10 around that time, so I could see some arguing it. That really becomes part of the issue though, we aren’t talking about wins against Chuck or Nog, we are talking about wins against possibly 8-10(ish) guys that popped on and off the list. Solid wins, no doubt, but not the career defining type of fight some seem to believe.
Play it again…
Swick is a great fighter that I honestly think has the potential to beat almost anyone, but look at the overall situation. He was top 5(ish), a single win away from a title shot and who had he beat? Keep in mind I’m not saying he was smashing cans, but take a minute to honestly look over Mike Swick’s fight history and you’ll see a series of “good” wins, and not a pair of wins over #1 & #2 ranked guys.
Nate “The Great”
I have to stress that I’m talking about Nate at the time of his first fight with Anderson Silva. Over his last few fights Nate has beaten fighters like Maia, Gouveia, and Kampmann. Awesome wins and again, I don’t think many have issue with Nate being “top 5″(ish) right now. What I want to focus on is prior to his fight with Anderson Silva.
Nate’s “Biggest” MMA win…at the time!
This situation is interesting because Nate fought Anderson 2007-07-07. Prior to that date I think there would be a fair amount of discussion regarding who his biggest win was. You’ve got several fighters like Misaki, Salaverry and Doerkson. All “solid” fighters, but lots of fans wouldn’t put any of them “top 10″. Given the time frame we are speaking about I’m inclined to say it was Misaki, but I’d gladly concede I was wrong if someone offered me a cookie.
Skipping to the point
Looking at Nate’s career prior to the Anderson fight we see…solid MMA wins. There are some “names” on the list, some well known fighters, but again…no #1 or even #5 types of guys. Nate was fighting for a title, he was considered “top 10″ by almost everyone, but who were his “big” wins?
For those that might have skipped to this section I again want to emphasize that my purpose here isn’t to claim that Nate didn’t deserve his MMA ranking. My purpose here is to show *HOW* he achieved his MMA ranking. Looking at his opponents prior to the Anderson fight it’s clear most weren’t “top 10″, but yet the overall quality (though not “top 10″) and the quantity was sufficient to get him bumped up the various ranking lists.
Shane Carwin
I’m going to jump up in weight and take a look at Shane Carwin now. The guy has been due to fight for the UFC heavyweight title for several months. He’s almost universally considered “top 10″ (or damn close) and yet…
Shane Carwin’s “Biggest” MMA win?
This one should be almost universally agreed on as being Gonzaga. This was Carwin’s last fight. The interesting thing about Gonzaga is where he “ranks”. Heading into the Carwin fight Gonzaga had won two in a row…but against much weaker competition. Prior to those two wins he had dropped two in a row (to Randy and Werdum).
There are some that will forever claim Gonzaga as “top 10″ for his win over Cro Cop. At the other end of the arguement you have people that see how spotty Gonzaga has been. Most would admit he has “top 10 potential”, but he seems to be unable to put together a great streak.
For the sake of this discussion let’s just say Gonzaga was top 10. Say he was tied and de facto 11 if you need, but just go with me on this please.
Everyone else
I could bet a lot of MMA fans they couldn’t name 3 other people Shane Carwin beat and make a lot of money. I mean a *LOT* of money. To put it in perspective…I can normally name 7 or 8 without looking. Considering Carwin has 11 wins and I’m me…that’s not a good number. I will also point out something I find amusing and that is that Carwin has wins over three fighters who’s records are: 1-2, 1-3, 1-4. It doesn’t mean anything, it just amuses me because I see numbers as shapes. *shrugs*
Honestly, this is *NOT* to bash Shane in anyway. I’m OK with him getting a title shot, I’m OK with him being “top 10″. Seriously though, remove Gonzaga from the list and take a shot at listing 4 or 5 other fighters he’s faced.
Final time
Here we have a contender for the UFC heavyweight title. The Gonzaga win “might” be top 10 and I honestly can’t imagine anyone being able to keep a straight face in telling me anyone else Carwin beat was “top 15″.
Keep this in mind
I’m quite certain some will read this and disagree about one fighter being “top 10″ at the time or perhaps with the choice of “biggest” win, but please keep in mind the spirit of the rant. Every one of the fighters above is quite good and many of their victories are against other fighters that are quite good.
Where things get confusing is when people try to bash a fighter like Rogers (compare him to Carwin prior to Rogers losing to Fedor…go on, explain how Carwin was “top 10″ and Rogers was a “can”). On some rankings lists we are starting to see fighters like Mamed Khalidov showing up. His last win was his biggest, and he has been on an incredible run. Maybe he’ll be “top 5″, maybe he won’t, but what he’s already done is pretty impressive.
What I think people need to realize is that there is a big different between beating “three cans” and beating 3 “top 15″ people. One of the great things about this site is that you can see where fighters actually stand rating wise. Sure Fighter A might not be “top 10″ and they might not be 2k rated, but if they are 1800 that’s still quite solid. There is a lot more to be said about a fighter that beats three 1800 rated guys than one that beats three 1400 rated guys.
With a broader knowledge of MMA fight histories it is easy to see that even some of the best got there with some “weaker” wins and that doesn’t take away from their greatness in anyway. Please try to keep that in mind as you look at various ranking lists. Sure someone might not have beaten a single 2k+ rated fighter, but a several wins over 1800 & 1900 rated guys is still damn impressive!
Tags: Carwin, Fitch, gsp, mma rankings, top 10