A lot of the talk in recent days has centered around Fedor and Rogers (which is understandable), but let us not forget that there were a lot of other great fighters on the card. I’d like to take a more in-depth look at several of the fighters on the card and see where they might go from here…
Fedor
Obviously, I have to start by talking about Fedor Vs Rogers. In recent days I’ve seen several of my pre-fight fears realized.
The Fedor Standard
I’m not usually the one to make bold sweeping statements, but at this point in time I have to say that Fedor is currently held to a higher standard than any other professional athlete on the planet! Such a statement seemed silly to me, but I gave it some more thought and actually compared the Fedor standard against that of other fighters, and other athletes/teams across various sports.
The standard that Fedor is now held to is akin to the Steelers defense not being able to give up a first down. Not a TOUCHdown, a FIRSTdown! The standard that Fedor is now held to in MMA is expecting Tiger woods to never bogey a single hole in golf. Not one, in fact, “par” might not even be good enough if Tiger were held to the same standard as Fedor.
In his fight against Rogers, Fedor was cut by a jab to start the fight, he was held against a cage and given a few knee strikes, and absorbed several seconds of GnP.
In exchange for this Fedor got Rogers to the ground multiple times, Fedor went Matrix on Rogers against the cage, Fedor went for an armbar that almost ended the fight, went for a Kimura that almost ended the fight, and OH THAT’S FUCKING RIGHT TKO’D ROGERS IN THE *SECOND* ROUND.
Clearly I saw this coming, obviously I knew not to have faith in humans (hope I never become one, being a Pooh is much better). Honestly though, what more do you want from a fighter!? The fact that Fedor got hit by a standing strike from a heavyweight striker is unacceptable? Is he supposed to dodge everything!? The fact that Fedor was pressed against the cage by someone more than 30lbs heavier than them is unacceptable?!? The fact that Fedor didn’t finish the fight in the first round is unacceptable!?
The Cut
Fedor was cut by a pawing Jab. He’s been cut before (see Lindland fight, TK “loss”, etc.). This isn’t news, this wasn’t Fedor being exposed.
Fedor Controlled
According to the tale of the tape Fedor was about 32lbs lighter than Rogers, was 5(ish) inches shorter and gave up 7? inches of reach. With that stacked against him, some still claim that Rogers controlled him against the cage. Mind you, Rogers didn’t get him to the ground, he didn’t break him open further with dirty boxing, he didn’t actually end the fight or anything. It’s amazing how people will usually boo fights against the cage and on the ground, but if it’s Fedor against the cage it’s proof of total domination.
Second round stoppage!
One of the things that always amazes me about the Fedor hate is how people act like Fedor pulled out the victory in the 11th hour. Fedor haters always seem to make it sound like Fedor was getting dominated the entire fight and then in the last 10 seconds…at that last possible moment he got lucky and landed a big shot. Here’s how some fights breakdown:
Fedor was getting “dominated” by Rogers (ya know, except for the sub attempts, the bigger shots, and despite a cut on his nose appearing to be more relaxed) until 1:48 of the *SECOND ROUND*.
For the Fedor Vs Arlovski fight we see Fedor “dominated” for….Three Minutes and Fourteen seconds. That equates to roughly 13% of the entire fight.
Lets take a look at Fedor Vs Lindland. The big opening shot, the grappling…Lindland “dominated” Fedor for….Two Minutes and Fifty-Eight Seconds! (if it was 5, 5 minute rounds, I’m not certain on this one) that’s less than 12% of the fight. Either way Lindland despite landing the first punch, and opening a cut on Fedor still couldn’t make it out of the first round!
What I don’t understand is when MMA became overtime in the NFL. When the first person to land a kick or punch or cut or whatever was the “winner”. People keep trying to bash on Fedor by saying he was “losing”, by claiming he was “dominated”, by claiming people “almost had him”, but the numbers show that Rogers lasting almost 1/4 of the fight is the best anyone has done in almost 4 years! During that time span you also have three fights that didn’t even last two minutes and two that ended in less than a minute!
This just seems like another one of those cases where people are so desperate to bash on Fedor that what they say only seems to make Fedor seem more insane. Of course he’s been touched in the ring, of course he doesn’t always finish fights in the first round, heck yeah I think he will lose soon. Despite that, I still think there is little consolation in my trainer looking at me after a fight going “great job not getting laid out until the second round!”
Rogers
Brett didn’t get enough credit going into the fight and sadly many seem to be downplaying what he’s done even more since losing to Fedor. Other people seem to be giving Rogers more credit even though he lost. Similar to how some viewed AA following his loss to Fedor. Which, again, seems like a huge compliment to Fedor.
The biggest thing about Rogers that leaves me baffled is when I see statements like, “Rogers shouldn’t go to the UFC because he’d lose to Lesnar, Cain and Carwin”. Why this confuses me so much is because even if it’s true he’d lose to those three people, that’s still not a reason he shouldn’t be there.
What some people seem to do is act as though being unable to hold the belt means you have no right to compete. Even if Rogers would never hold a belt that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be a professional fighter. There are plenty of teams in the NFL/MLB/etc that haven’t won a title in a long time. Why is it fighters like Justin McCully are accepted in the UFC for numerous fights, but someone like Rogers is shunned.
The fact is Rogers has a style many like to see, he finishes his fights, he’s got a solid record and he actually seems to be improving. On top of all that, lets look at the “top 10″ UFC heavyweights…
- Brock
- Mir
- Nog
- Cain
- Carwin
- JDS
- Cro Cop?
- Gonzaga?
- Rothwell?
- Kongo?
That’s in no particular order, but most consider cro cop washed up. Gonzaga is flaky as hell in the ring and lots didn’t even want Rothwell in the UFC to begin with. Do people honestly think Rogers is incapable of being competitive against any of the fighters listed above? What about against fighters like Berry, Hardonk, Gromley, Struve, and the other heavyweights we’ve seen in recent cards.
This isn’t about Rogers specifically, or even about the UFC. What it’s about is that some fans seem to think if you can’t win the belt you shouldn’t compete at all. There are some people that fail to realize how good fighters like Nate, Kampmann, and many others are. When you are talking about a fighter being “good” it doesn’t mean you put them #1 or think they can beat everyone. It means you think they provide legitimate competition to some fighters and in most cases that the matches would be interesting to watch.
Fedor…the can *MAKER*
Probably the biggest fear following a loss to Fedor is the “can status” tag. Another common misconception in MMA is that losing two fights in a row means you are a washed up, has been, never was, scrub. Following AA’s fight against Fedor he was highly regarded, some wanted a rematch, and then when he lost to Rogers (of all people) he was almost universally bashed. Years of good fights, thrown right out the window and instead replaced with bashing about his “glass jaw”.
Tim Sylvia was claimed to be the counter to Fedor by some people for years. He finally fights Fedor coming off a loss to Big Nog (two fighters both ranked higher than him) and suddenly he’s a no body. Obviously the loss to Mercer didn’t help, but Timmy was already so hated it really didn’t matter much.
As another “MMA wide” thing people need to realize, losses happen! Even if a fighter has an 80% chance of beating two fighters, that still means they have about a 1 in 25 chance of losing both matches back to back. Understand that an 80% chance to win is crazy high for MMA and that “flukes” happen. Rogers wasn’t really expected to beat Fedor and even if he loses his next match, it doesn’t mean he’s washed up. It doesn’t mean Fedor was beating up a can, and it doesn’t mean Rogers should retire.
Depending on who is chosen as Rogers next opponent odds are pretty good that it will be almost a coin flip between who wins/losses the fight. The fact that Rogers lost to Fedor (someone he was almost universally expected to lose against) shouldn’t tarnish his reputation.
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Despite all of the Fedor Vs Rogers clamor I almost started this rant by talking about Sok. He is an incredibly talented fighter, but things just aren’t going right. I know some will be upset by some of what I’m about to say, but please understand it comes from a place of respect and a place of hope.
I don’t want to see Sok fight another elite fighter for a year
Whether you call it “top 10″ or “1900 rated” or whatever, I just don’t want to see it. Sok burst onto the scenes in February of 2007 with a huge win over Lil Nog. He returned April of that year to defeat Arona. Since that time Sok has gone 3 and 4 with his best win coming against Kazuhiro Nakamura.
Potential Vs Performance
A common discussion on this site is that of MMA potential Vs MMA performance. If you look at Sok’s striking, his athleticism, his grappling pedigree, there is no doubt he can be a scary guy. However, when we look at performance we see that prior to the two big wins in Pride he got TKO’d by Glover.
Following those two wins a lot of people immediately put him top 10 and had him leap frog a bunch of people. Despite only being 4-1 in his early career Sok was immediately “one of the best LHW in the world”. What followed was a loss to Machida, a win against Nak, a loss to Cane and a loss to Babalu.
The problem is despite the losses, Sok was still being given these upper tier fights because of his potential. I honestly think it’s hindered his natural progression and resulted in him under performing.
People need to realize that fight outcome seldom changes potential. If you are ranking on “potential” then Sok will be a top 10 fighter loss after loss after loss. However, sport doesn’t work like that and outcome does matter. For that reason, and many others, I want to see Sok get back on the winning track.
Climbing the MMA ranks
Great fighters early in their career often have several fights they are “expected” to win. It’s because they are newer and despite being the (heavy) favorite there’s still a lot they can gain from the fight. When we look at fighters like Cain, like Fitch, and many others we see a natural progression in their fights. A fighter like Jon Jones is an excellent example of a fighter with huge potential that took a half dozen or so fights early in their career and then started to really climb the MMA ranks.
With Sok, we don’t see that natural progression. Sok had two wins against people most have never heard of, a loss to Glover, and then a flash KO of Lil Nog immediately made him “top 10″. Sok leapfrogged hundreds of other fighters and in doing so missed out on a lot of experience. In those early fights an MMA fighter will find themselves in positions they didn’t expect. They will find their opponent doesn’t go down quite as quickly as they expect. They will learn how to win.
The contrast between Sok and a fighter like Fedor is very evident. On a night where Fedor got his nose opened up to a jab and was being grinded against the cage by a larger man, they never lost their composure. Fedor wiped blood from his face a couple of times, he stayed calm, he stayed focus and he came back to win. In many of Sok’s losses you see him showing the potential to win, but once he fails to win early, things seem to fall apart.
In the fight with Banha Sok showed his early fury, and then puttered out. In the fight with Machida Sok appeared frustrated (it happens), and never really accomplished much in the fight. This recent fight against Mousasi saw a fairly competitive opening round, but things quickly went south.
Not just Sok
As I said, I know some people won’t want to hear this, but it’s not like Sok is the only one this has happened to. Although not as bad Napao was in a situation where a big win threw him into the top 10. He put down Cro Cop and then found himself in the ring with a very experienced heavyweight. In that fight his nose was busted open and he actually attempted to call timeout. He struggled, and eventually just plain quit. Following that loss he was immediately thrown into the cage against Werdum (someone who had already beaten him once).
Following those back to back losses Napao was given a clear step down in competition. I think the same thing is what needs to happen to Sok at this point. I have no doubt that he *could* beat almost anyone, but I also realize he’s likely to lose. For me, I’d rather see Sok take four or five fights over the next year, beat some quality (but not elite) fighters and actually learn how to win. Not just early, not just with power, but with heart and determination and confidence in himself. Sok is still young and I don’t think it’s too late for him to get back on the right track.
For those that wonder, yes Sok could just keep fighting higher tiered fighters and get his groove back that way. However, even major league players use a pitching machine at times, they still take batting practice. Sok could try to “shoot himself” out of the slump like an NBA player, but it seems far riskier.
Right now Sok has the 12th hardest strength of schedule in MMA history and a current rating below that strength of schedule. In fact, his max rating ever is only a single point above his strength of schedule. He is now 7-5 after being 4-1. If nothing else, let him win some fights and build himself back up a bit so that when he does win it’s not a “huge upset” that poorly reflects on the fighter he beats. Sok has the potential to be amazing, and I’d really enjoy seeing his performances live up to it.
Gegard
Gegard is an interesting contrast to Sok because of their very different paths through the MMA ranks.
Activity
One of the things that really seems to separate Gegard from other fighters is his desire to fight. I know that might sound silly, but look at his career thus far…
2003 – 3 fights…first fight ever wasn’t until April
2004 – 2 fights…first of the year wasn’t until September
2005 – 7 fights
2006 – 6 fights
2007 – 3 fights…all within about 3 months
2008 – 6 fights
2009 – 3 fights
Now obviously not all of those fights were against top notch competition, but some of them were. Additionally, Mousasi has competed in K-1 fights and practiced other disciplines during this time.
Climbing the MMA ranks
It’s interesting to contrast how Sok and Gegard climbed the MMA ranks. Sok busted onto the scene following a couple big wins. Mousasi on the other hand has been steadily climbing the ranks for years. He fought in several smaller shows, went 2-1 in pride, won the dream MW GP, and is in the middle of a 14 fight win streak.
Some people seem to hold those weaker fights against Gegard, but what people need to understand is that every fight is a chance to learn. Those fights are also chances to be tested or even lose.
Ceiling?
I’ve heard that Mousasi plans to go all the way to heavyweight, but I’m not sure I see that working out very well. We are seeing more and more large heavyweights and the days of heavyweights like Cro Cop and Fedor appear to be nearing an end.
Perhaps we’ll see an additional weight class created to breakup the gap between 205 and 265, but if not I think Gegard would do well to stay at 205.
Next up?
I’m very curious to see who Gegard fights in his next couple of fights. We’ve heard rumors that Dan Henderson is signed now with Strikeforce, but I haven’t seen anything offical. That could be a pretty interesting fight. I also know Gegard has expressed interest in boxing as well, so we’ll have to see which sport his next fight takes place in.
Jake Shields
Speaking of ceilings. I’m honestly not sure how well 185 is going to continue to work for Shields. He has done well and can cause problems for fighters, but he is obviously at a disadvantage compared to fighting at welterweight. Sadly, despite fighting at the higher weight class Shields continues to garner boo’s and is shown a lack of respect.
Shields is boring
One of the main problems people seem to have with shields is that he’s very much a ground fighter. Where this gets confusing is that being a “ground fighter” shouldn’t naturally be a strike against someone. Look at a fighter like Demian Maia.
Clearly being a guy that prefers the fight on the ground isn’t automatic cause to hate a fighter. Maybe it’s because of decisions…
Jake – 24 wins…11 decisions
Randy Couture – 16 wins…7 decisions
When you add in the fact that 8 of Jake’s last nine wins had come via sub/(t)ko, I don’t think that’s the issue.
Also, when looking at the Miller fight understand that Shields was giving up a fair amount of size that Miller doesn’t really get finished. In fact, when we look at Mayhem we see 22 wins and 7 loses. In those 29 fights (one no contest) Mayhem has lost exactly twice by stoppage. Trigg won via TKO about three years ago and Todd Carney got a Guillotine choke over seven years ago (in his next fight Mayhem induced a towel stoppage from Carney’s corner).
That means Shields had finished eight fights in a row, he fought a guy bigger than him that even GSP went to decision against and…Shields is boring because of this?
I think what makes this more confusing to me is that I happened to catch a replay of Hughes Vs Trigg recently on TV. The fight has a lot of ground action and the crowd at that time actually seems to be responding to it in a positive manner. For example, there’s no immediate boo’s from the crowd when the fight hits the ground, there seems to be informed reaction when a position is changed or a sweep is attempted.
That Hughes Vs Trigg fight was almost 6 years ago at this point, but people seemed more informed of the ground game back then. I actually saw someone claim that the Shields Vs Miller fight was “devoid of Jujitsu”. Clearly this person thinks it takes years to earn a blackbelt because it’s hard to master the rear-naked choke and the armbar…obviously the only two techniques offered by the discipline.
Look, I’m not saying Shields Vs Miller was the best fight ever. What I am questioning is how it can be viewed so poorly and how Shields can be blamed for the majority of it. Everyone seems to blame the guy on top for not letting the fighter on the bottom get up. Why isn’t the fighter on the bottom ever blamed for just sitting there and not trying anything and possibly exposing a limb? Do people honestly think we should get to a point where fighters don’t bother training takedown defense or much for sub defense because all they have to do is tie the guy up for 15 seconds and get a standup?
Yes, there was some good
I know sometimes I tend to rant on the “doom and gloom” side of things, but there was a lot of good from the event as well. Several people e-mailed me about the fights that had never watched a whole MMA event before, the event drew solid ratings and despite many disliking the Shields Vs Miller fight I received several comments from people who were “surprised the ground game could be so back and forth”.
I hope you enjoyed the event and I hope you enjoyed the rant. 8)
Tags: fedor, rogers, strikeforce, ufc
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