MMA Ranking Talk

For those with a fever and the only cure is MORE BJ~!!!

Four degrees of Evil Pooh

A couple days ago a friend of mine started talking to me about MMA (normally good). Then they started talking to me about BJ Penn (normally bad). During this conversation they quoted me some information a friend of theirs had relayed to them concern BJ Penn and GSP. The information sounded about right overall, but I was intrigued and sought to be told more.

Google FTW

I get back home and google for mmalinker and BJ Penn information. I finally find the post and note the author of the post says, “I found this on BJ Penn.com”. Ok, well I start reading the post and take note of some of the data. Overall it looks right, but it also looks…familiar. The article mentions it’s BF (Before Florian), so maybe I’ve already read this. Surely duplicate information is never posted on an MMA forum!!! I decide to continue my search…

Google…Take TWO!

I now set out to google down BJ Penn…on his website. Amazingly enough, there are some hits regarding BJ Penn!

I find the “original” article in question and begin reading it over. It’s basically the same thing and reading it again it just feels as though I’ve read it before. No! Not “before” as in 15 minutes ago on the other site.

Finishing up the article I see the comments and one of them mentions that the person writing the article didn’t “write the article”. You guessed it!

Google Three…This time…It’s not Google Two!

Now I’m back to google and I plug in the BJ Penn information and information from the comment and I find…

BJ Penn MMA Career by the numbers

I now start reading this article and I’m proud to say it only took me two and a half paragraphs to realize…I WROTE THE ORIGINAL FUCKING ARTICLE~!!!

Good god lol.

Normally I try not to comment on other people’s writing, but since I started this clusterfug, I figured I might as well do what my friend asked and offer up some feedback.

1) BJ Penn’s MMA Career and Time

Having reread the article (yes a third time, you think you have trouble with reading a rant once, imagine how I felt!) and some of the comments I noticed that many people seem to completely ignore time.

1a) Activity

For example, even though the article mentioned it was before Florian and the original article was clearly dated back in March, some still talked about the Florian fight. Additionally, some people are already talking about the Diego fight.

One reply I saw basically bashed the activity section because BJ “will” fight three times this year. How silly of me back in March to not know that he’d hopefully (a few weeks from now) actually have his third fight this year. It’s also amusing how a third fight (that still hasn’t happened) completely invalidates previous years of 2, 1, 2, and 2 MMA fights.

Look, when I wrote the article I never said BJ would *NEVER* fight three times in a year. I never even said that they hadn’t fought three times in a year previously. The only thing I was pointing out is that BJ Penn has low activity for an MMA fighter. For some people that matters. For others, it doesn’t. Whether it matters to you or not doesn’t change the fact it’s true. Let me put it to you like this: a friend of mine is a chubby chaser and I’m happy for them, but the fact remains that I wouldn’t let their other “half” sit in my comfy chair.

1b) At the time

Perhaps one of the biggest issues when talking about BJ Penn’s MMA career (and other fighters, sports, etc.) is the concept of at the time. It’s amazing how people can read something from months ago and use information since that time to somehow invalidate the points made.

Lebron Vs Melo

I think a good example of this happened a few years ago when Melo and Lebron were going for rookie of the year. At the end of the year Melo had more points, more rebounds, and went to the playoffs. Yes, Lebron had more assists and a worse supporting cast. Melo also had a higher shooting percentage and a higher three-point percentage as I recall (forgive me if I got that one wrong, I didn’t even remember my own rant from this year, 2003-2004 is even fuzzier).

Since I try to limit my fights to one at a time, please ignore who won, who you think should have won, etc. What I want to point out is that in the years since Lebron has become the “better player” in most people’s eyes. No problem with that…except some actually use that as grounds for him receiving the rookie of the year award back then.

The crucial thing to keep in mind is that when giving out the Rookie of the year award for 2003-2004 we are *NOT* looking at playoff performance in 2008. Seriously, the awards would be backed up 10+ years and they would give out all awards at your hall of fame ceremony. It’d be like, “congrats, here’s your hall of fame plaque, here’s a rookie of the year, two mvp’s…and one comeback player of the year award”. Seriously, shit doesn’t work like that.

Just because I have to mention it…Emeka Okafor won the rookie of the year award in 2004-2005. Is he the “best” current player from that year?

Fedor *WILL* Lose

I keep saying it and I honestly believe it’ll happen eventually. Whether I’m right or not I don’t know(I also mumble “hot redhead” under my breath every time the doorbell rings).

Here again I’d like to ignore Fedor being the “best” right now, or where he might be in six months or two years. What I want to focus on are the people that keep waiting for him to lose so they can “prove” Fedor was overrated three years ago. Once Fedor loses it won’t mean he sucks right now and it certainly isn’t going to invalidate the incredible run he has been on for years.

Back to BJ Penn

Now lets get back to BJ Penn. Where BJ Penn ranked in March was lower than where he ranks now. Know why? Because he won an MMA fight since then! Shocking I know. Wanna know something else? If he beats Diego in a few weeks…He’ll rank even higher!!!

Hold the gasps because you are going to want to yell at me in a second…*IF* Diego wins (via greasing, BJ taking him lightly, BJ under traininer, BJ overtraining, BJ giving him the win to setup the rematch, a bad ref decision, a bad judging decision, sniper in the rafters, someone spiking the water, altitude, BJ stubbing his toe on the way to the cage, a camera flash temporarily blinding him so he gets clipped, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc) IF…JUST IF then BJ Penn will move down some.

The last statement is really the one that gets some BJ Penn fans. Let’s finish up this section by looking at BJ Penn’s MMA Career at the time.

2006-09-23 - BJ Penn lost to Matt Hughes. This was his second loss in a row and his third loss in three fights. At this point in time (keep repeating that to yourself) BJ Penn hadn’t fought at lightweight since…2003-10-10. That’s right, almost 3 years without a single fight at lightweight. Despite this, some people still had him ranked #1 at lightweight. Even more impressive is that some still had BJ ranked *AT THE TIME* in the top 3 or 4 p4p (only the haters had him that low, clearly BJ was still #1) despite having lost three of his last four fights (more on that later).

2007-06-23 - BJ Penn now beats…Jens Pulver (<3 little Evil). Of course BJ Penn is now #1 at lightweight. I mean, 1 lightweight fight in over three years, and he took out a top...uhhhh (<3 little evil but...) a top...20? 15? Honestly what can I say, before the fight Jens even said he was dropping to 145. He also had just lost to a UFC newcomer who then went on the TUF show.

2009-03-18 - The day of the original rant. Since 2007-06-23 BJ had two solid wins at lightweight, and then went right back up to WW and lost to GSP...again. (because of the greasing, and the cage, and the lights, and the camera, and the weight, and the greasing and the cage andgreasingandtrainingandhistoeandsomeonestolehishatandthegreasing). It was after this fight against GSP "to the death" (stopped after the 4th round) that the rant was originally typed.

At that time BJ Penn had four wins at lightweight in the last *FIVE* years. During that time they also had *FOUR* losses at higher weight classes. They also only had a total of 11 fights, which is less than 75% of what you'd expect.

Yet somehow, *AT THAT TIME* people were still claiming BJ Penn #1 at lightweight and top 4 (or better) p4p.

I mean really, at each of those points in time and any other point inbetween that I didn't focus on was BJ Penn still #1 at lightweight and top four p4p? REALLY!?!?!?! Not a single point in time in the last five plus years where people can concede that maybe he slipped just a bit? Please just tell me at what point he cemented his status and why nothing he does can change it. People wait for Fedor to fall, some knocked GSP down for the Serra loss, some still look back at Anderson's earlier losses. Why is it that *NOTHING* changes BJ Penn's ranking. He can lose and it doesn't matter, he can go inactive and it doesn't matter.

2) BJ Penn’s MMA Career and Weight

Another hotly contested point about BJ Penn is his p4p status and how weight factors into things. As with the above and the original rant, I really just want to talk as factually as possible.

2a) BJ Penn’s weight

One of the big slashes in the pro-BJ Column is that he has fought bigger people. This is true and I’d expect even haters to admit such a thing. Where things get a bit blurry is just how that stacks up against other people.

Anderson Silva

Anderson has fought multiple times at light heavyweight now. Although many don’t rank Irvin overly high there are some that have Griffin in the top 5 range. Either way, Anderson has far more wins at his weight class, and a higher activity level.

GSP

One of the knocks I see on people against GSP is that he stays at welterweight. Although true, it’s not like everyone is the same size in that weightclass. GSP has mulitple wins against people that later held belts at middleweight. Where they stood at the time of the fight is unknown.

If we had more accurate information (that I keep begging for) we could also look at fighters within the division currently. Although I’ve heard reports of GSP at 190, I’ve also heard those dismissed and people say it’s closer to 180-185. Contrast that against fighters like Rumble and Thiago Alves. Both fighters have missed weight before. Both have been talked about in the 200+ range. Recently I saw something claiming Rumble was around 205 in the Koscheck fight.

Since we don’t have accurate information I’m not going to get into this too much, but I again plead for people to stop using “weight” and “weight class” interchangeably. If BJ Penn is 155 on the nose and GSP was 180 for their fight(s) that’s a 25lb gap. If GSP is 180 and Rumble is 205…that’s a 25lb gap!

Fedor

A situation where we do have some (slightly) more accurate numbers is Fedor. He usually weighs around 230-235. His fight against Rogers he weighed in at 232 (I believe). For this fight Rogers weighed in at 264 (I believe). The numbers might be slightly off, but I’m pretty sure the difference in weight was ~32lbs.

That’s a 32lb weight difference without Fedor cutting anything and possibly with Rogers cutting to make the 265lb limit. Again, don’t talk about “weight class” as though it’s the same as “weight”.

BJ has fought bigger guys, and it’s totally understandable to give him credit for that. However, if you give BJ credit for fighting bigger guys, then you can’t ignore other fighters that do the same. More accurate information would make this easier to see. Even without it though it’s clear that other fighters do fight “bigger” guys sometimes and that even within a “weight class” fighters have different “weights”.

2b) BJ Penn’s wins at higher weights

The theme of “talking fact, not smack” continues here. I have an incredible level of respect for BJ and all of the opponents I mention. Having said that, I think it’s important that we take a look at BJ Penn’s successes at higher weight classes.

Let’s start with a little exercise, grab a piece of paper (or open notepad or whatever) and write/type the name of the “best”(hardest) fight BJ Penn had at a higher weight. I’ll play along and although your list might be slightly different, just keep going. At first I’ll go with….

-GSP (the second time)

Ok, now add another name (or the same from a different fight) I’ll add Matt Hughes and my list looks like…

- GSP (the second time)
- Matt Hughes (second time)

Yours can look however, it might have GSP X2 or Hughes X2 or even Machida…just keep going a few more…

My list:
-GSP
-Hughes
-GSP

Ok lets go for “top 5″ because that’s a number most people like.

- GSP
- Hughes
- GSP
- Machida
- Hughes

Ok, there are my five…now draw a line (or put a hyphen) and list the fight outcome. Mine looks like:

Fighter	Outcome
GSP	Loss
Hughes	Loss
GSP	Loss
Machida	Loss
Hughes	Win

Now, as I said, your list may look different. Maybe you’ve got Machida higher, or the two GSP losses grouped up, or maybe the Hughes win and the Hughes loss at the top. Any of those I think will match what most people have.

Did anyone put Renzo Gracie? If so, please read 5.0.2 of the original rant, understand:

- Renzo hadn’t fought in almost 2 years leading up to the BJ Penn fight
- Renzo hadn’t *WON* in over 3 and a half years before the BJ Penn fight
- Renzo had lost 2 in a row going into the BJ Penn fight
- Renzo had lost 5 of his last 6 going into the BJ Penn fight

Given that, please explain how Renzo was a higher end “fight” for BJ than any of the five above that most people have.

Maybe Rodrigo Gracie? They were 5-0 at the time and had beat Mach recently. Do you swap out Machida for that? Maybe a Hughes fight?

Here is what it comes down to, BJ Penn has some fights at higher weights and he has some wins at higher weights, the problem is most people confuse the two of them. Here is the list people quote of who BJ Penn has *FOUGHT* at higher weights:

“OMFGZORZ HE FOUGHT - Hughes X 2, GSP X 2, and Machida!!!”

Ok, that is actually true. Now lets look at a list of who he *BEAT* at higher weight:

Hughes (once out of two!), Rodrigo Gracie, Renzo Gracie.

Maybe some throw Bang in there as well, go for it if you want.

Does anyone spot the differences in the two lists!? Honestly question *RIGHT NOW*, I want everyone to take a second and think on this and then we’ll all blurt out our answers together here goes…

“After Matt Hughes, who is the second biggest win for BJ Penn outside of lightweight”

get ready…
3…
2…
1…
ANSWER…

Ok, what did you say? I went with Rodrigo, but I might be wrong.

Seriously, does this basic exercise on the paper help at all? BJ Penn has had 5(ish) BIG fights at higher weights. He’s fought Hughes X2, he’s fought GSPX2, and he’s fought a young Machida (had 5 fights at the time, but had already beaten Rich Franklin). Of those five “big” fights he’s won…One of them.

It seems I’m again forced to ask why it’s so hard for some to understand how others might question BJ Penn just a bit, just a little, just the teeeennnnnsssiiiiest bit. These people that question him concede he’s fought at higher weights, they just follow up by pointing out which of those fights he actually won.

Lock it up

The topic will never die and I’m sure seven or eight months from now someone will be talking to me about this rant…that someone mentioned…that someone posted…that someone saw linked…that someone copied from a piece of paper that was printed out that stuck to the bottom of their shoe with bubblegum while they were walking…..Or whatever.

What always strikes me about a “discussion” like this though is how both sides approach things. The “Pro” BJ camp seems unwilling to ever acknowledge he dropped in rankings, his losses don’t matter, his inactivity doesn’t matter, nothing does. He’s just #1, he’s been #1, and he’ll be #1.

On the “anti” BJ side, I see people talk about facts like inactivity, little details like losses, or a breakdown of those “BJ PENN FIGHTS BIGGER PEOPLE!!!!” arguements. Yeah BJ Penn fights bigger people, he also loses to them a lot. “BJ PENN HAS A HIGH STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE” No shit…he also…LOSES TO THEM A LOT. BJ Penn is #2 on SoS right now. If you remove the Hughes fight he lost and the GSP fights he lost, he’s suddenly right around #10 (still good mind you). Losing should matter, no one proclaims Yuji to be one of the best ever, but he clearly managed to lose to some high ranked people as well.

Look, BJ Penn has tons of potential, heaps. I don’t think anyone can argue it. At the same time, I don’t see how anyone can argue that he doesn’t fight often, that he does lose and that his “higher weight fights” are often overblown. He might win 5 fights next year and capture belts in three weight classes. When he does I’ll say that he did, he’ll rank high, and world peace will break out. Even if all that happens though, some people will (rightly?) still ponder how anyone could justify *ZERO* wins at a weight class in over three years as being #1 *AT THE TIME*.

Tags: bj penn, btn, Hughes, lightweight

This entry was posted on Saturday, November 28th, 2009 at 12:05 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.