BTN (By The Numbers) is a series of posts I have planned that explore various stats in MMA. As the title says the purpose of this episode is to explore the (potential) correlation between weight and decisions in MMA.
Due to data limitations weight was determined by looking at the current weight for both fighters. If both fighters currently weigh the same, then that is the “bucket” the fight result was put into. If both fighters are not currently the same weight, then the fight was ignored. Obviously there are some exceptions to the rule, but even with this criteria the smallest bucket is still over 1200 fights.
Results
| Weight | (t)ko | Sub | Dec | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 131-146 | 21% | 32% | 37% | 10% |
| 147-156 | 23% | 35% | 35% | 7% |
| 157-171 | 26% | 38% | 28% | 8% |
| 172-186 | 30% | 34% | 28% | 8% |
| 187-206 | 35% | 33% | 26% | 6% |
| 207-266 | 40% | 40% | 16% | 4% |
Conclusions
1) As fighter weight increases the overall percentage of fights that end in (t)ko increases.
2) As fighter weight increases the overall percentage of fights that go to decision decreases.
That is probably what most people would expect. What they might be a bit surprised to see is the submission percentage across all weight classes. Keep in mind that a “sub” due to strikes is still considered a sub. There are also fights where a sub is sunk in after a large(ish) amount of striking has softened up the other fighter. *shrugs*
Individual Results
Since we now have a rough idea how results breakdown between the various weight classes lets take a look at some non-HWs with lots of ko’s and some HW that go the distance a lot.
The criteria used here is the outcome of fights won by the fighter. A fighter having a propensity for getting KO’d might increase the likelihood of a fight not going to decision, but this approach allows the knocker to get credit for finishing fights instead of the knockee getting credit for being finished. 8P
Heavy Handed
Melvin Manhoef – 95%
Luis Arthur Cane – 89%
- 1 sub win, no decisions, and only loss is by DQ.
Scott Smith – 85%
Mauricio Rua – 81%
Robbie Lawler – 81%
Norifumi Yamamoto – 71%
Time to see if Cecil Peoples was watching the same fight as the rest of us…
Randy Couture – 44%
- 0 losses by decision
Justin McCully – 38%
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – 29%
- 100% of losses by decision. (Insert, “Big Nog never loses he simply runs out of time” quote here). Additionally, both the decision loss to Henderson and the decision loss to Barnett were “split”. The @$$poundings by Fedor were unanimous @$$poundings though.
Blankets, Fight Finishers, and bears Oh My~!!!
| Fighter | (t)ko% | Sub% | Dec% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Sherk | 27% | 39% | 33% |
| Jake O’Brien | 80% | -0- | 20% |
| Karo Parisyan | -0- | 50% | 50% |
| Kenny Florian | 30% | 60% | 10% |
| Travis Fulton | 31% | 66% | 3% |
Please note that Karo “coin toss” Parisyan has 1 submission due to strikes.
Interesting, eh? Any fighters that should be listed above that I missed? Any additional numbers you’d like to see included? Any pizza left in the fridge? (heads off to check…)
[...] posted on MMA-elo.com on this topic. Full rant on this page… MMA Ranking Talk Blog Archive BTN: Weight and Decisions BTN (By The Numbers) is a series of posts I have planned that explore various stats in MMA. As the [...]